A Note on the Predictive Content of PPI over CPI Inflation: The Case of Mexico
AbstractThis note studies the causal relationship that may exist between the producer price index (PPI) and the consumer price index (CPI). In contrast with previous international studies, the results suggest that, in the case of Mexico, information on the PPI seems to be useful to improve forecasts of CPI inflation. In particular, CPI inflation responds significantly to disequilibrium errors with respect to the long-run relationship between consumer and producer prices. These results are based on in-sample and out-of-sample tests of Granger causality, in the context of an error correction model.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Banco de México in its series Working Papers with number 2009-14.
Date of creation: Nov 2009
Date of revision:
Cointegration; forecast evaluation; Granger causality; vector error correction.;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
- C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
- E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
- E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2009-12-05 (All new papers)
- NEP-CBA-2009-12-05 (Central Banking)
- NEP-FOR-2009-12-05 (Forecasting)
- NEP-MAC-2009-12-05 (Macroeconomics)
- NEP-MON-2009-12-05 (Monetary Economics)
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