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Trade, Investment, and Growth: Nexus, Analysis, and Prognosis

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Author Info
Kala Krishna
Ataman Ozyildirim
Norman R. Swanson

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Abstract

This paper looks at the patterns of causation between income, export, import, and investment growth for 25 developing countries. Our approach differs from previous efforts in a number of ways. First, we examine each country individually in order to allow for complete heterogeneity and properly account for the stochastic trending properties of the data. Second, we apply novel model selection techniques which are based on in-sample goodness-of-fit criteria and ex-ante predictive ability criteria to identify the best model for each country. Finally, we propose a rather novel device based on simple contingency tables which allows us to assess whether our models are capable of accurately predicting turning points in GDP growth. We find that countries with high trade exposure fare poorly in this dimension and posit that the GDP growth in such countries is best modeled using an index of global business cycle conditions, in addition to the above variables. Overall, we find that in around two thirds of the countries examined, growth is best explained by exports and/or imports. Further, and in contrast to previous findings of bi-directional causality, around 70% of the countries exhibit uni-directional causality.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 6861.

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Date of creation: Dec 1998
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:6861

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
F43 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Economic Growth of Open Economies
O47 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Measurement of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence

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References listed on IDEAS
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  1. Norman R. Swanson & Halbert White, 1997. "A Model Selection Approach To Real-Time Macroeconomic Forecasting Using Linear Models And Artificial Neural Networks," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 79(4), pages 540-550, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Jeffrey A. Frankel & David Romer & Teresa Cyrus, 1996. "Trade and Growth in East Asian Countries: Cause and Effect?," NBER Working Papers 5732, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  3. Bernard, Andrew B. & Bradford Jensen, J., 1999. "Exceptional exporter performance: cause, effect, or both?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(1), pages 1-25, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  4. Swanson, Norman R., 1998. "Money and output viewed through a rolling window," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(3), pages 455-474, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Engle, Robert F & Granger, Clive W J, 1987. "Co-integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 251-76, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Granger, C W J, 1969. "Investigating Causal Relations by Econometric Models and Cross-Spectral Methods," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 37(3), pages 424-38, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Kuan, Chung-Ming & Liu, Tung, 1995. "Forecasting Exchange Rates Using Feedforward and Recurrent Neural Networks," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 10(4), pages 347-64, Oct.-Dec.. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Swanson, N.R., 1996. "Forecasting Economic Time series Using Adaptive Versus Nonadaptive and Linecar Versus Nonlinear Econometric Models," Papers 4-96-2, Pennsylvania State - Department of Economics.
  9. Xu, Zhenhui, 1998. "Export and Income Growth in Japan and Taiwan," Review of International Economics, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 6(2), pages 220-33, May.
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  13. Corradi, Valentina & Swanson, Norman R. & Olivetti, Claudia, 2001. "Predictive ability with cointegrated variables," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 104(2), pages 315-358, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Granger, Clive W. J. & King, Maxwell L. & White, Halbert, 1995. "Comments on testing economic theories and the use of model selection criteria," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 67(1), pages 173-187, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  15. Weiss, Andrew A, 1996. "Estimating Time Series Models Using the Relevant Cost Function," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(5), pages 539-60, Sept.-Oct. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  17. Hoffman, Dennis L & Rasche, Robert H, 1996. "Assessing Forecast Performance in a Cointegrated System," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(5), pages 495-517, Sept.-Oct. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  18. Sims, Christopher A, 1972. "Money, Income, and Causality," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 62(4), pages 540-52, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  19. Ben-David, Dan & Loewy, Michael B, 1998. " Free Trade, Growth, and Convergence," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 3(2), pages 143-70, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  20. Young, Alwyn, 1994. "Lessons from the East Asian NICS: A contrarian view," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 38(3-4), pages 964-973, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  21. Christoffersen, Peter F. & Diebold, Francis X., 1997. "Optimal Prediction Under Asymmetric Loss," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 13(06), pages 808-817, December. [Downloadable!]
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  22. repec:cup:etheor:v:13:y:1997:i:6:p:808-17 is not listed on IDEAS
  23. Holtz-Eakin, Douglas & Newey, Whitney & Rosen, Harvey S, 1988. "Estimating Vector Autoregressions with Panel Data," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 56(6), pages 1371-95, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  24. Harrison, Ann, 1991. "Openness and growth : a time series, cross-country analysis for developing countries," Policy Research Working Paper Series 809, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
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  25. Swanson, N.R. & Ozyildirim, A. & Pisu, M., 1996. "A Comparison of Alternatove causality and Predictive Accuracy Tests in the presence of Integrated and Co-integrated Economic Variables," Papers 4-96-4, Pennsylvania State - Department of Economics.
  26. Swanson, Norman R & White, Halbert, 1995. "A Model-Selection Approach to Assessing the Information in the Term Structure Using Linear Models and Artificial Neural Networks," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 13(3), pages 265-75, July.
    Other versions:
  27. David T. Coe & Elhanan Helpman, 1993. "International R&D Spillovers," IMF Working Papers 93/84, International Monetary Fund.
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  28. Bee Yan Aw & Xiaomin Chen & Mark J. Roberts, 1997. "Firm-level Evidence on Productivity Differentials, Turnover, and Exports in Taiwanese Manufacturing," NBER Working Papers 6235, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  29. Pritchett, Lant, 1991. "Measuring outward orientation in developing countries : can it be done?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 566, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
  30. Wolfgang Keller, 1997. "Are International R&D Spillovers Trade-Related? Analyzing Spillovers Among Randomly Matched Trade Partners," NBER Working Papers 6065, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  31. Swanson, Norman R. & White, Halbert, 1997. "Forecasting economic time series using flexible versus fixed specification and linear versus nonlinear econometric models," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 13(4), pages 439-461, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Shandre Mugan Thangavelu & Gulasekaran Rajaguru, 2004. "Is there an export or import-led productivity growth in rapidly developing Asian countries? a multivariate VAR analysis," Applied Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 36(10), pages 1083-1093, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Enzo Weber, 2006. "Common and Uncommon Sources of Growth in Asia Pacific," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2006-064, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Joao Ricardo Faria & Miguel León-Ledesma, 2003. "Cultural Heritage and Growth," Studies in Economics 0303, Department of Economics, University of Kent. [Downloadable!]
  4. Judith A. Giles, 2000. "Testing for Two-Step Granger Noncausality in Trivariate VAR Models," Econometrics Working Papers 0008, Department of Economics, University of Victoria. [Downloadable!]
  5. Mutz,Christine & Ziesemer,Thomas, 2005. "Simultaneous Estimation of Income and Price Elasticities of Export Demand, Scale Economies and Total Factor Productivity Growth for Brazil," Research Memoranda 004, Maastricht : MERIT, Maastricht Economic Research Institute on Innovation and Technology. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  6. Pablo Acosta & Andrés Loza, 2005. "Short and long run determinants of private investment in Argentina," Journal of Applied Economics, Universidad del CEMA, vol. 0, pages 389-406, November. [Downloadable!]
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