IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eco/journ2/2021-02-51.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The Nexus Between Oil Price Shock and the Exchange Rate in Bangladesh

Author

Listed:
  • Sakib Bin Amin

    (School of Business and Economics, North South University, Bashundhara, Dhaka-1229, Bangladesh.)

  • Noshin Nawal Audry

    (School of Business and Economics, North South University, Bashundhara, Dhaka-1229, Bangladesh.)

  • Ahmed Farah Ulfat

    (School of Business and Economics, North South University, Bashundhara, Dhaka-1229, Bangladesh.)

Abstract

We examine the nexus between oil price and exchange rate for Bangladesh economy by using annual data covering from 1980 to 2018. Given the stationarity properties, the Johansen cointegration and the ARDL bounds cointegration tests find a long-run cointegrating relationship between the variables. We find that oil price granger causes exchange rate in the long-run but not in the short-run. According to DOLS and DARDL model, an increase in oil price appreciates exchange rate by 0.40% and 0.30%. We argue that the central bank's proper monitoring mechanism is necessary to avoid oil price's adverse effects on the exchange rate.

Suggested Citation

  • Sakib Bin Amin & Noshin Nawal Audry & Ahmed Farah Ulfat, 2021. "The Nexus Between Oil Price Shock and the Exchange Rate in Bangladesh," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 11(2), pages 427-435.
    • Handle: RePEc:eco:journ2:2021-02-51
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.econjournals.com/index.php/ijeep/article/download/10658/5753
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.econjournals.com/index.php/ijeep/article/view/10658/5753
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Volkov, Nikanor I. & Yuhn, Ky-hyang, 2016. "Oil price shocks and exchange rate movements," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 18-30.
    2. Kilian, Lutz & Zhou, Xiaoqing, 2022. "Oil prices, exchange rates and interest rates," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
    3. Fakhri J. Hasanov & Lester C. Hunt & Ceyhun I. Mikayilov, 2016. "Modeling and Forecasting Electricity Demand in Azerbaijan Using Cointegration Techniques," Energies, MDPI, vol. 9(12), pages 1-31, December.
    4. Takuji Fueki & Jouchi Nakajima & Shinsuke Ohyama & Yoichiro Tamanyu, 2021. "Identifying oil price shocks and their consequences: The role of expectations in the crude oil market," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 24(1), pages 53-76, April.
    5. Narayan, Seema, 2013. "Foreign exchange markets and oil prices in Asia," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 41-50.
    6. Stock, James H & Watson, Mark W, 1993. "A Simple Estimator of Cointegrating Vectors in Higher Order Integrated Systems," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(4), pages 783-820, July.
    7. Amin Sakib & Marsiliani Laura, 2015. "Energy price shocks in dynamic stochastic general equilibrium: the case of Bangladesh," Review of Business and Economics Studies, CyberLeninka;Федеральное государственное образовательное бюджетное учреждение высшего профессионального образования «Финансовый университет при Правительстве Российской Федерации» (Финансовый университет), issue 4, pages 12-21.
    8. Su Zhou, 2001. "The Power of Cointegration Tests Versus Data Frequency and Time Spans," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 67(4), pages 906-921, April.
    9. Granger, C. W. J., 1988. "Some recent development in a concept of causality," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 39(1-2), pages 199-211.
    10. M. Hakan Berument & Nildag Basak Ceylan & Nukhet Dogan, 2010. "The Impact of Oil Price Shocks on the Economic Growth of Selected MENA1 Countries," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 1), pages 149-176.
    11. Edwards, Sebastian, 1989. "Exchange Rate Misalignment in Developing Countries," The World Bank Research Observer, World Bank, vol. 4(1), pages 3-21, January.
    12. Le Viet Trung & Nguyen Thi Thuy Vinh, 2011. "The impact of oil prices, real effective exchange rate and inflation on economic activity: Novel evidence for Vietnam," Discussion Paper Series DP2011-09, Research Institute for Economics & Business Administration, Kobe University.
    13. Engle, Robert & Granger, Clive, 2015. "Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 39(3), pages 106-135.
    14. Sakib Bin Amin & Ridwan Mosharraf Hossain, 2017. "Finance-Growth Nexus in Bangladesh? An Empirical Analysis," Asian Economic and Financial Review, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 7(2), pages 152-163, February.
    15. Sakib Bin Amin & Tasneem Alam, 2018. "The Relationship Between Energy Consumption and Sectoral Output in Bangladesh: An Empirical Analysis," Journal of Developing Areas, Tennessee State University, College of Business, vol. 52(3), pages 39-54, July-Sept.
    16. Marcel Fratzscher & Daniel Schneider & Ine Van Robays, 2013. "Oil Prices, Exchange Rates and Asset Prices," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1302, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    17. Granger, C. W. J., 1980. "Testing for causality : A personal viewpoint," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 2(1), pages 329-352, May.
    18. Ahmed, Khalid & Bhutto, Niaz Ahmed & Kalhoro, Muhammad Ramzan, 2019. "Decomposing the links between oil price shocks and macroeconomic indicators: Evidence from SAARC region," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 423-432.
    19. Granger, C W J, 1969. "Investigating Causal Relations by Econometric Models and Cross-Spectral Methods," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 37(3), pages 424-438, July.
    20. Sakib Bin Amin & Farhan Khan, 2020. "Modelling Energy Demand in Bangladesh: An Empirical Analysis," Journal of Developing Areas, Tennessee State University, College of Business, vol. 54(1), pages 39-52, January-M.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Hashmi, Shabir Mohsin & Chang, Bisharat Hussain & Huang, Liangfang & Uche, Emmanuel, 2022. "Revisiting the relationship between oil prices, exchange rate, and stock prices: An application of quantile ARDL model," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    2. Jayson Beckman & Getachew Nigatu, 2021. "Do Political Factors Influence U.S. Crude Oil Imports?," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 11(4), pages 288-297.
    3. Rabeh Khalfaoui & Sakiru Adebola Solarin & Adel Al-Qadasi & Sami Ben Jabeur, 2022. "Dynamic causality interplay from COVID-19 pandemic to oil price, stock market, and economic policy uncertainty: evidence from oil-importing and oil-exporting countries," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 313(1), pages 105-143, June.
    4. Caporale, Guglielmo Maria & Çatık, Abdurrahman Nazif & Huyuguzel Kısla, Gul Serife & Helmi, Mohamad Husam & Akdeniz, Coşkun, 2022. "Oil prices and sectoral stock returns in the BRICS-T countries: A time-varying approach," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    5. Ge, Yongbo & Zhu, Yuexiao, 2022. "Boosting green recovery: Green credit policy in heavily polluted industries and stock price crash risk," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Marques, André M. & Carvalho, André R., 2022. "Testing the neo-fisherian hypothesis in Brazil," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 407-419.
    2. Zapata, Hector O. & Gil, Jose M., 1999. "Cointegration and causality in international agricultural economics research," Agricultural Economics, Blackwell, vol. 20(1), pages 1-9, January.
    3. Jose Sidaoui & Carlos Capistran & Daniel Chiquiar & Manuel Ramos-Francia, 2010. "On the predictive content of the PPI on CPI inflation: the case of Mexico," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Monetary policy and the measurement of inflation: prices, wages and expectations, volume 49, pages 249-257, Bank for International Settlements.
    4. Edmore Mahembe & Nicholas Mbaya Odhiambo, 2019. "Foreign aid, poverty and economic growth in developing countries: A dynamic panel data causality analysis," Cogent Economics & Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 7(1), pages 1626321-162, January.
    5. Tang, Chor Foon, 2008. "A re-examination of the relationship between electricity consumption and economic growth in Malaysia," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(8), pages 3067-3075, August.
    6. Fahmida Khatun & Syed Yusuf Saadat & Md. Kamruzzaman, 2019. "FINANCE FOR SDGs: Addressing Governance Challenge of Aid Utilisation in Bangladesh," CPD Working Paper 125, Centre for Policy Dialogue (CPD).
    7. Yazdanpanah, Ahmad, 1994. "The impact of oil price on food security in the Algeria, Iran, and Saudi Arabia: cointegration, vector-error correction model, dynamics, and causality analysis," ISU General Staff Papers 1994010108000011661, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    8. Sandip SARKER & Arifuzzaman KHAN & Rezwan MAHMOOD, 2016. "FDI, Economic Growth, Energy Consumption & Environmental Nexus in Bangladesh," Economics and Applied Informatics, "Dunarea de Jos" University of Galati, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, issue 1, pages 33-44.
    9. Chor Foon Tang and Eu Chye Tan, 2012. "Electricity Consumption and Economic Growth in Portugal: Evidence from a Multivariate Framework Analysis," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 4).
    10. Chang, Yu-Hern & Chang, Yu-Wei, 2009. "Air cargo expansion and economic growth: Finding the empirical link," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 15(5), pages 264-265.
    11. Caraiani, Chirața & Lungu, Camelia I. & Dascălu, Cornelia, 2015. "Energy consumption and GDP causality: A three-step analysis for emerging European countries," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 198-210.
    12. John D. Levendis, 2018. "Time Series Econometrics," Springer Texts in Business and Economics, Springer, number 978-3-319-98282-3, August.
    13. Srivastava, Sasha & Lin, Hai & Premachandra, Inguruwatte M. & Roberts, Helen, 2016. "Global risk spillover and the predictability of sovereign CDS spread: International evidence," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 371-390.
    14. Chor Foon Tang & Soo Y. Chua, 2012. "The savings-growth nexus for the Malaysian economy: a view through rolling sub-samples," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(32), pages 4173-4185, November.
    15. Sakib Bin Amin & Ridwan Mosharraf Hossain, 2017. "Finance-Growth Nexus in Bangladesh? An Empirical Analysis," Asian Economic and Financial Review, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 7(2), pages 152-163, February.
    16. Moonsoo Park & Yanhong Jin & Alan Love, 2011. "Dynamic and contemporaneous causality in a supply chain: an application of the US beef industry," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 43(30), pages 4785-4801.
    17. Massa, Ricardo & Rosellón, Juan, 2020. "Linear and nonlinear Granger causality between electricity production and economic performance in Mexico," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 142(C).
    18. Tang, Chor Foon & Tan, Bee Wah, 2014. "A revalidation of the savings–growth nexus in Pakistan," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 370-377.
    19. Sidaoui José Julián & Capistrán Carlos & Chiquiar Daniel & Ramos Francia Manuel, 2009. "A Note on the Predictive Content of PPI over CPI Inflation: The Case of Mexico," Working Papers 2009-14, Banco de México.
    20. Looney, Robert E., 1997. "Infrastructure and private sector investment in Pakistan," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 8(3), pages 393-420.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Oil Price Shock; Real Exchange Rate (RER); Cointegration; Causality; DOLS; DARDL; Bangladesh.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • Q43 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy and the Macroeconomy

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eco:journ2:2021-02-51. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Ilhan Ozturk (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.econjournals.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.