The impact of oil prices, real effective exchange rate and inflation on economic activity: Novel evidence for Vietnam
AbstractThe goal of this paper is to examine the impact of oil prices on Vietnam's economic activity using vector autoregressive (VAR) modeling and cointegration techniques. We use monthly data for the period 1995-2009 and include inflation and the real effective exchange rate as additional determinants of economic activity. We find evidence of a long-run relationship between oil prices, inflation, exchange rate, and economic activity. The results suggest that both oil prices and the real effective exchange rates have strongly significant impact on economic activity. An increase in oil price or depreciation may enhance economic activity. Vietnamese economic activity is influenced more by changes of value of Vietnamese currency than the fluctuations of oil prices. Inflation has a positive impact on economic activity however its impact is not highly significant. This suggests that moderate inflation is helpful rather than harmful to economic activity.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Research Institute for Economics & Business Administration, Kobe University in its series Discussion Paper Series with number DP2011-09.
Length: 31 pages
Date of creation: Mar 2011
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Oil price; Economic activity; Vietnam;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- E60 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - General
- F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
- O53 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Asia including Middle East
- Q43 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy and the Macroeconomy
- P20 - Economic Systems - - Socialist Systems and Transition Economies - - - General
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2011-03-26 (All new papers)
- NEP-ENE-2011-03-26 (Energy Economics)
- NEP-MAC-2011-03-26 (Macroeconomics)
- NEP-OPM-2011-03-26 (Open Economy Macroeconomics)
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