Cointegration Analysis of Oil Prices and Consumer Price Index in South Africa using STATA Software
AbstractThis paper investigates the concept of vector autoregression (VAR) and cointegration using a bivariate model of global oil prices and headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) in South Africa. The study aims to determine how much of inflation is driven by oil prices. Particular attention is paid to the theoretical underpinnings of cointergration analysis and the application of STATA software to undertake such analysis and perform test statistics. Contrary to the popular myth that a rise in global oil prices fuels inflation, this study has observed that global oil prices are not the drivers of inflation in South Africa. In this way, other macroeconomic indicators and policy developments need to be integrated in analyzing the determinants of South African inflation.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 49797.
Date of creation: 13 Sep 2013
Date of revision:
Consumer Price Index; Oil Prices; Vector Autoregression; Cointegration; STATA Software; South Africa;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- E51 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Money Supply; Credit; Money Multipliers
- E6 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook
- E64 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Incomes Policy; Price Policy
- E65 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Studies of Particular Policy Episodes
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-AFR-2013-09-26 (Africa)
- NEP-ALL-2013-09-26 (All new papers)
- NEP-ENE-2013-09-26 (Energy Economics)
- NEP-MAC-2013-09-26 (Macroeconomics)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Browne, Frank & Cronin, David, 2010.
"Commodity prices, money and inflation,"
Journal of Economics and Business,
Elsevier, vol. 62(4), pages 331-345, July.
- Granger, E.J. & Swanson, N.R., 1996.
"An introduction to stochastic Unit Root Processes,"
4-96-3, Pennsylvania State - Department of Economics.
- LeBlanc, Michael & Chinn, Menzie David, 2004.
"Do High Oil Prices Presage Inflation? The Evidence from G-5 Countries,"
Santa Cruz Department of Economics, Working Paper Series
qt4wt4m7hg, Department of Economics, UC Santa Cruz.
- LeBlanc, Michael & Chinn, Menzie David, 2004. "Do High Oil Prices Presage Inflation? The Evidence from G-5 Countries," Santa Cruz Department of Economics, Working Paper Series qt9rr929sm, Department of Economics, UC Santa Cruz.
- LeBlanc, Michael & Chinn, Menzie David, 2004. "Do High Oil Prices Presage Inflation? The Evidence from G-5 Countries," Santa Cruz Center for International Economics, Working Paper Series, Center for International Economics, UC Santa Cruz qt9rr929sm, Center for International Economics, UC Santa Cruz.
- Matteo Manera & Alessandro Cologni, 2005.
"Oil Prices, Inflation and Interest Rates in a Structural Cointegrated VAR Model for the G-7 Countries,"
2005.101, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
- Cologni, Alessandro & Manera, Matteo, 2008. "Oil prices, inflation and interest rates in a structural cointegrated VAR model for the G-7 countries," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 856-888, May.
- Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
- Cunado, J. & Perez de Gracia, F., 2005.
"Oil prices, economic activity and inflation: evidence for some Asian countries,"
The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance,
Elsevier, vol. 45(1), pages 65-83, February.
- Juncal Cunado & Fernando Pérez de Gracia, 2004. "Oil Prices, Economic Activity and Inflation: Evidence for Some Asian Countries," Faculty Working Papers 06/04, School of Economics and Business Administration, University of Navarra.
- Johansen, Søren & Juselius, Katarina, 1992. "Testing structural hypotheses in a multivariate cointegration analysis of the PPP and the UIP for UK," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 53(1-3), pages 211-244.
- David F. Hendry & Katarina Juselius, 2000.
"Explaining Cointegration Analysis: Part 1,"
The Energy Journal,
International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 1), pages 1-42.
- Johansen, Soren, 1991. "Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, Econometric Society, vol. 59(6), pages 1551-80, November.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Ekkehart Schlicht).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.