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Impact of Oil Price Shock and Exchange Rate Volatility on Economic Growth in Nigeria: An Empirical Investigation

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  • Aliyu, Shehu Usman Rano

Abstract

This paper seeks to assess the impact of oil price shock and real exchange rate volatility on real economic growth in Nigeria on the basis of quarterly data from 1986Q1 to 2007Q4. The empirical analysis starts by analyzing the time series properties of the data which is followed by examining the nature of causality among the variables. Furthermore, the Johansen VAR-based cointegration technique is applied to examine the sensitivity of real economic growth to changes in oil prices and real exchange rate volatility in the long-run while the short run dynamics was checked using a vector error correction model. Results from ADF and PP tests show evidence of unit root in the data and Granger pairwise causality test revealed unidirectional causality from oil prices to real GDP and bidirectional causality from real exchange rate to real GDP and vice versa. Findings further show that oil price shock and appreciation in the level of exchange rate exert positive impact on real economic growth in Nigeria. The paper recommends greater diversification of the economy through investment in key productive sectors of the economy to guard against the vicissitude of oil price shock and exchange rate volatility.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 16319.

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Date of creation: 03 May 2009
Date of revision: 10 Jun 2009
Publication status: Published in Research Journal of Internatıonal Studıes Issue 11.Issue (2009): pp. 4-15
Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:16319

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Keywords: Cointegration; Granger Causality; Oil price shock; Exchange Rate Volatility; VECM;

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References

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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Aye, Goodness C., 2012. "The Long and Short Run Impacts of Food and Energy Price Shocks: Evidence from Nigeria," 2012 Conference (56th), February 7-10, 2012, Freemantle, Australia 125048, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society.
  2. Ismail O. Fasanya & Adegbemi B.O Onakoya, 2013. "Oil Price Fluctuations and Output performance in Nigeria : a Var Approach," Romanian Economic Journal, Department of International Business and Economics from the Academy of Economic Studies Bucharest, vol. 16(49), pages 47-72, September.
  3. Sanginabadi, Bahram & Heidari, Hassan, 2012. "The Effects of Exchange Rate Volatility on Economic Growth in Iran," MPRA Paper 52406, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  4. Al-mulali, Usama, 2010. "The Impact of Oil Prices on the Exchange Rate and Economic Growth in Norway," MPRA Paper 24447, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  5. Le Viet Trung & Nguyen Thi Thuy Vinh, 2011. "The impact of oil prices, real effective exchange rate and inflation on economic activity: Novel evidence for Vietnam," Discussion Paper Series DP2011-09, Research Institute for Economics & Business Administration, Kobe University.
  6. Zahid Muhammad & Hassan Suleiman & Reza Kouhy, 2011. "Exploring oil price – exchange rate nexus for Nigeria," FIW Working Paper series 071, FIW.
  7. Ogundipe, Adeyemi & Ogundipe, Oluwatomisin, 2013. "Oil Price and Exchange Rate Volatility in Nigeria," MPRA Paper 51668, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  8. Aliyu, Shehu Usman Rano, 2009. "Oil Price Shocks and the Macroeconomy of Nigeria: A Non-linear Approach," MPRA Paper 18726, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 16 Nov 2009.

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