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China’s Exchange Rate and International Adjustment in Wages, Prices, and Interest Rates: Japan Déjà Vu?

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Author Info
Ronald Ian McKinnon ()
Gunther Schnabl ()

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Abstract

China keeps its exchange rate tightly fixed to the dollar. Its productivity growth and trade surplus have been high, and it continues to accumulate large dollar reserves. Many observers take this as evidence that the renminbi is undervalued and should be appreciated to reduce the Chinese trade surplus. We argue that an appreciation of the renminbi need not reduce China’s trade surplus but could cause serious deflation in China. To show this, we consider international adjustment between China and the United States from both an asset-market and a labor-market perspective, and compare this to Japan’s unsuccessful appreciation of the yen.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by CESifo Group Munich in its series CESifo Working Paper Series with number CESifo Working Paper No. 1720.

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Date of creation: 2006
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Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_1720

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Related research
Keywords: China; exchange rate; adjustment; assets markets; labour markets;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration
F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
F33 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Gunther Schnabl & Christian Danne, 2005. "The Changing Role of the Yen/Dollar Exchange Rate for Japanese Monetary Policy," International Finance 0503001, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
  2. Jeffrey Frankel, 2006. "On the Yuan: The Choice between Adjustment under a Fixed Exchange Rate and Adjustment under a Flexible Rate," CESifo Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 52(2), pages 246-275, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. McKinnon, Ronald & Schnabl, Gunther, 2006. "Devaluing the dollar: A critical analysis of William Cline's case for a New Plaza Agreement," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 28(6), pages 683-694, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Ronald McKinnon & Gunther Schnabl, 2003. "The East Asian Dollar Standard, Fear of Floating, and Original Sin," Working Papers 03001, Stanford University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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  5. Schnabl, Gunther & Baur, Dirk, 2002. "Purchasing power parity: Granger causality tests for the yen-dollar exchange rate," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 14(4), pages 425-444, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
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