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China’s Exchange Rate Impasse and the Weak U.S. Dollar

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  • Ronald Ian McKinnon
  • Gunther Schnabl

Abstract

Since 2004, China has been backed into a situation where the renminbi is expected to go ever higher against the dollar, and this one-way bet has led to a loss of domestic monetary control. Combined with a more general flight from the U.S. dollar, the resulting monetary explosion in China contributes to the worldwide increase in primary commodity prices—with excess liquidity reminiscent of the global inflation generated by the weak dollar in the 1970s.

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File URL: http://www.cesifo-group.de/portal/page/portal/DocBase_Content/WP/WP-CESifo_Working_Papers/wp-cesifo-2008/wp-cesifo-2008-09/cesifo1_wp2386.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by CESifo Group Munich in its series CESifo Working Paper Series with number 2386.

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Date of creation: 2008
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_2386

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Related research

Keywords: inflation; exchange rates; macro policies; current account imbalances;

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References

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  1. Schnabl, Gunther & Hoffmann, Andreas, 2007. "Monetary Policy, Vagabonding Liquidity and Bursting Bubbles in New and Emerging Markets - An Overinvestment View," MPRA Paper 5201, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  2. Ronald McKinnon & Gunther Schnabl, 2004. "The Return to Soft Dollar Pegging in East Asia. Mitigating Conflicted Virtue," International Finance 0406007, EconWPA, revised 07 Jul 2004.
  3. Guillermo A. Calvo & Carmen M. Reinhart, 2002. "Fear Of Floating," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 117(2), pages 379-408, May.
  4. Carmen M. Reinhart, 2000. "Mirage of Floating Exchange Rates," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(2), pages 65-70, May.
  5. William R. Cline, 2005. "United States as a Debtor Nation, The," Peterson Institute Press: All Books, Peterson Institute for International Economics, number 3993.
  6. Ronald Ian McKinnon, 2007. "The US current account deficits and the dollar standard’s sustainability: A monetary approach," CESifo Forum, Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 8(4), pages 12-23, 01.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Casajus, André & Hüttner, Frank, 2012. "Null players, solidarity, and the egalitarian Shapley values," Working Papers 113, University of Leipzig, Faculty of Economics and Management Science.
  2. Gan, Christopher & Ward, Bert & Ting, Su Ting & Cohen, David A., 2013. "An empirical analysis of China's equilibrium exchange rate: A co-integration approach," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 33-44.
  3. Jannett Highfill & Raymond Wojcikewych, 2011. "The U.S.-China Exchange Rate Debate: Using Currency Offer Curves," International Advances in Economic Research, Springer, vol. 17(4), pages 386-396, November.
  4. Steger, Thomas & Schäfer, Andreas, 2012. "Journey into the Unknown? Economic Consequences of Factor Market Integration under Increasing Returns to Scale," Annual Conference 2012 (Goettingen): New Approaches and Challenges for the Labor Market of the 21st Century 62062, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
  5. Hoffmann, Andreas & Schnabl, Gunther, 2011. "Symmetrische Regeln und asymmetrisches Handeln in der Geld- und Finanzpolitik," Working Papers 95, University of Leipzig, Faculty of Economics and Management Science.
  6. Casajus, André, 2012. "The Shapley value without efficiency and additivity," Working Papers 114, University of Leipzig, Faculty of Economics and Management Science.
  7. Grossmann, Volker & Steger, Thomas M. & Trimborn, Timo, 2011. "Dynamically optimal R&D subsidization," Working Papers 97, University of Leipzig, Faculty of Economics and Management Science.
  8. Casajus, André, 2011. "Collusion, symmetry, and the Banzhaf value," Working Papers 99, University of Leipzig, Faculty of Economics and Management Science.
  9. Hongyi Chen & Lars Jonung & Olaf Unteroberdoerster, 2009. "Lessons for China from financial liberalization in Scandinavia," European Economy - Economic Papers 383, Directorate General Economic and Monetary Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
  10. Belke, Ansgar & Schnabl, Gunther, 2010. "Finanzkrise, globale Liquidität und makroökonomischer Exit," Working Papers 92, University of Leipzig, Faculty of Economics and Management Science.
  11. Mai Dao & Ruo Chen, 2011. "The Real Exchange Rate and Employment in China," IMF Working Papers 11/148, International Monetary Fund.
  12. Quaas, Georg & Köster, Robert, 2012. "Ein Modell für die Wirtschaftszweige der deutschen Volkswirtschaft: Das "MOGBOT" (Model of Germany's Branches of Trade)," Working Papers 106, University of Leipzig, Faculty of Economics and Management Science.
  13. Casajus, André & Hüttner, Frank, 2012. "Nullifying vs. dummifying players or nullified vs. dummified players: The difference between the equal division value and the equal surplus division value," Working Papers 110, University of Leipzig, Faculty of Economics and Management Science.
  14. Casajus, André, 2012. "Solidarity and fair taxation in TU games," Working Papers 111, University of Leipzig, Faculty of Economics and Management Science.
  15. Schnabl, Gunther & Zemanek, Holger, 2011. "Die Deutsche Wiedervereinigung und die europäische Schuldenkrise im Lichte der Theorie optimaler Währungsräume," Working Papers 94, University of Leipzig, Faculty of Economics and Management Science.
  16. Gawel, Erik, 2013. "Neuordnung der W-Besoldung: Ausgestaltung und verfassungsrechtliche Probleme der Komsumtionsregeln zur Anrechnung von Leistungsbezügen," Working Papers 115, University of Leipzig, Faculty of Economics and Management Science.
  17. Quaas, Georg, 2012. "Ein Nelson-Winter-Modell der deutschen Volkswirtschaft," Working Papers 112, University of Leipzig, Faculty of Economics and Management Science.

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