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China’s Exchange Rate Impasse and the Weak U.S. Dollar

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Author Info
Ronald Ian McKinnon ()
Gunther Schnabl ()

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Abstract

Since 2004, China has been backed into a situation where the renminbi is expected to go ever higher against the dollar, and this one-way bet has led to a loss of domestic monetary control. Combined with a more general flight from the U.S. dollar, the resulting monetary explosion in China contributes to the worldwide increase in primary commodity prices—with excess liquidity reminiscent of the global inflation generated by the weak dollar in the 1970s.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by CESifo Group Munich in its series CESifo Working Paper Series with number CESifo Working Paper No. 2386.

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Date of creation: 2008
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Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_2386

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Related research
Keywords: inflation; exchange rates; macro policies; current account imbalances;

Find related papers by JEL classification:
E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
E61 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Policy Objectives; Policy Designs and Consistency; Policy Coordination
F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange

References listed on IDEAS
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  1. Qiao, Hong, 2007. "Exchange rates and trade balances under the dollar standard," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 29(5), pages 765-782. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Reinhart, Carmen, 2000. "The mirage of floating exchange rates," MPRA Paper 13736, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  3. Carmen M. Reinhart, 2000. "Mirage of Floating Exchange Rates," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(2), pages 65-70, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Guillermo A. Calvo & Carmen M. Reinhart, 2002. "Fear Of Floating," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 117(2), pages 379-408, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Ronald McKinnon & Gunther Schnabl, 2004. "The Return to Soft Dollar Pegging in East Asia. Mitigating Conflicted Virtue," International Finance 0406007, EconWPA, revised 07 Jul 2004. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  6. Gunther Schnabl & Andreas Hoffmann, 2008. "Monetary Policy, Vagabonding Liquidity and Bursting Bubbles in New and Emerging Markets: An Overinvestment View," The World Economy, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 31(9), pages 1226-1252, 09. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
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This page was last updated on 2009-12-1.

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