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A role model for China? Exchange rate flexibility and monetary policy in Japan

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Author Info
DANNE, Christian
SCHNABL, Gunther

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Abstract

A substantial number of papers have proposed to allow for more exchange rate flexibility of the Chinese yuan. But few papers have tried to project how Chinese monetary policy will behave under flexible exchange rates. As Japan provides an important role model for China, this paper studies the role of the yen/dollar exchange rate for Japanese monetary policy after the shift of Japan from a fixed to a floating exchange rate regime. In contrast to prior studies, we allow for regime shifts in the impact of the exchange rate on monetary policy. The results show that the exchange rate had a substantial impact on Japanese monetary policy in periods of appreciation. This implies that repeated attempts to soften the appreciation pressure by interest rate cuts have led Japan into the liquidity trap. The economic policy conclusion for China is to keep the exchange rate pegged (to the dollar).

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Publisher Info
Article provided by Elsevier in its journal China Economic Review.

Volume (Year): 19 (2008)
Issue (Month): 2 (June)
Pages: 183-196
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Handle: RePEc:eee:chieco:v:19:y:2008:i:2:p:183-196

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Schnabl, Gunther & Hoffmann, Andreas, 2007. "Geldpolitik, vagabundierende Liquidität und platzende Blasen in neuen und Aufstrebenden Märkten
    [Monetary Policy, Vagabonding Liquidity and Bursting Bubbles in New and Emerging Markets]    ," MPRA Paper 4019, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  2. Eric Hillebrand & Gunther Schnabl, 2006. "A structural break in the effects of Japanese foreign exchange intervention on yen/dollar exchange rate volatility," Working Paper Series 650, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Clarida, Richard & Gali, Jordi & Gertler, Mark, 1998. "Monetary policy rules in practice Some international evidence," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 42(6), pages 1033-1067, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  4. Esaka, Taro, 2000. "The Louvre Accord and central bank intervention: was there a target zone?," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 12(2), pages 107-126, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Ronald McKinnon & Gunther Schnabl, 2004. "The Return to Soft Dollar Pegging in East Asia. Mitigating Conflicted Virtue," International Finance 0406007, EconWPA, revised 07 Jul 2004. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  6. Gunther Schnabl & Paul De Grauwe, 2004. "Nominal versus Real Convergence with Respect to EMU Accession - EMU Entry Scenarios for the New Member States," International Finance 0403008, EconWPA, revised 05 Jul 2004. [Downloadable!]
  7. Ronald McKinnon, 2007. "Why China Should Keep Its Dollar Peg," International Finance, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 10(1), pages 43-70, 03. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. McKinnon, Ronald I., 2004. "The East Asian dollar standard," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 15(3), pages 325-330. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Yin-Wong Cheung & Menzie D. Chinn & Eiji Fujii, 2005. "Why the renminbi might be overvalued (but probably isn’t)," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. [Downloadable!]
  10. Marvin Goodfriend & Eswar Prasad, 2007. "A Framework for Independent Monetary Policy in China," CESifo Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 53(1), pages 2-41, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Schnabl, Gunther & Hoffmann, Andreas, 2007. "Geldpolitik, vagabundierende Liquidität und platzende Blasen in neuen und Aufstrebenden Märkten
    [Monetary Policy, Vagabonding Liquidity and Bursting Bubbles in New and Emerging Markets]    ," MPRA Paper 4019, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  2. Gunther Schnabl, 2007. "Exchange rate volatility and growth in small open economies at the EMU periphery," Working Paper Series 773, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Gunther Schnabl, 2007. "Exchange Rate Volatility and Growth in Emerging Europe and East Asia," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo Group Munich. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
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