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China and Its Dollar Exchange Rate: A Worldwide Stabilising Influence?

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  • Ronald McKinnon
  • Gunther Schnabl

Abstract

We argue that criticism concerning the Chinese dollar peg is misplaced as no predictable link exists between the exchange rate and the trade balance of an international creditor economy. The stable nominal yuan/dollar rate is argued to have stabilized Chinese, East Asian and global growth. However, linked to US low interest rates, Chinese sterilization policies and potentially subsidized capital allocation in China the real yuan/dollar rate is undervalued. This has caused—both in China and the United States— structural distortions and threatens to undermine global growth and stability. We propose Sino-American policy coordination to escape from the policy dilemma, which continues to drive global imbalances.

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File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1111/j.1467-9701.2011.01416.x
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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Wiley Blackwell in its journal The World Economy.

Volume (Year): 35 (2012)
Issue (Month): 6 (06)
Pages: 667-693

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Handle: RePEc:bla:worlde:v:35:y:2012:i:6:p:667-693

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References

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  1. Ronald McKinnon & Gunther Schnabl, 2004. "The Return to Soft Dollar Pegging in East Asia: Mitigating Conflicted Virtue," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 7(2), pages 169-201, 07.
  2. Ronald McKinnon & Gunther Schnabl, 2009. "The Case for Stabilizing China's Exchange Rate: Setting the Stage for Fiscal Expansion," China & World Economy, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 17(1), pages 1-32.
  3. Ronald McKinnon & Gunther Schnabl, 2006. "China's Exchange Rate and International Adjustment in Wages, Prices and Interest Rates: Japan Déjà Vu?," CESifo Economic Studies, CESifo, vol. 52(2), pages 276-303, June.
  4. Schnabl, Gunther & Freitag, Stephan, 2010. "Reverse causality in global current accounts," Working Paper Series 1208, European Central Bank.
  5. Gunther Schnabl & Paul De Grauwe, 2004. "Nominal versus Real Convergence with Respect to EMU Accession - EMU Entry Scenarios for the New Member States," International Finance 0403008, EconWPA, revised 05 Jul 2004.
  6. Ronald McKinnon & Gunther Schnabl, 2003. "Synchronized Business Cycles in East Asia and Fluctuations in the Yen/Dollar Exchange Rate," Working Papers 022003, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
  7. Gunther Schnabl, 2011. "The role of the chinese dollar peg for macroeconomic stability in China and the world economy," Global Financial Markets Working Paper Series 13-2010, Friedrich-Schiller-University Jena.
  8. Galina Hale & Cheryl Long, 2010. "If you try, you’ll get by: Chinese private firms’ efficiency gains from overcoming financial constraints," Working Paper Series 2010-21, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Bonatti, Luigi & Fracasso, Andrea, 2013. "Hoarding of international reserves in China: Mercantilism, domestic consumption and US monetary policy," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 1044-1078.
  2. McKinnon, Ronald, 2013. "The U.S. saving deficiency, current-account deficits, and deindustrialization: Implications for China," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 449-458.
  3. Bonatti, Luigi & Fracasso, Andrea, 2013. "Regime switches in the Sino-American co-dependency: Growth and structural change in China," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 1-32.
  4. Turhan, Ibrahim M. & Arslan, Yavuz & Kılınç, Mustafa, 2011. "Global Imbalances, Current Account Rebalancing and Exchange Rate Adjustments," MPRA Paper 36475, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  5. Kristina Spantig, 2012. "International monetary policy spillovers in an asymmetric world monetary system - The United States and China," Global Financial Markets Working Paper Series 2012-33, Friedrich-Schiller-University Jena.
  6. Menkhoff, Lukas, 2012. "Foreign Exchange Intervention in Emerging Markets: A Survey of Empirical Studies," Diskussionspapiere der Wirtschaftswissenschaftlichen Fakultät der Leibniz Universität Hannover dp-498, Leibniz Universität Hannover, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät.
  7. Axel Löffler & Gunther Schnabl & Franziska Schobert, 2012. "Limits of Monetary Policy Autonomy by East Asian Debtor Central Banks," CESifo Working Paper Series 3742, CESifo Group Munich.
  8. Gunther Schnabl, 2012. "Monetary Policy Reform in a World of Central Banks," Global Financial Markets Working Paper Series 26-2012, Friedrich-Schiller-University Jena.
  9. Gábor, Tamás, 2012. "China's monetary sterilization and it's economical relationship with the European Union," MPRA Paper 40362, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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