Geldpolitik, vagabundierende Liquidität und platzende Blasen in neuen und Aufstrebenden Märkten
[Monetary Policy, Vagabonding Liquidity and Bursting Bubbles in New and Emerging Markets]
AbstractWe show how since the mid 1980s expansionary monetary policies in the large economies and “vagabonding liquidity” have contributed to bubbles in the new and emerging markets. Based on the monetary overinvestment theories of Hayek and Wicksell we describe a wave of bubbles and crises that was initiated in Japan by an expansionary monetary policy in the mid 1980s. After the burst of the Japanese bubble and sharply declining interest rates in Japan, carry trade transmitted the bubbles to East Asia (Asian crisis) and the new markets in the developed economies. After the end of the irrational exuberance in the new markets, new bubbles emerged in the US real estate market and possibly currently in China and Central and Eastern Europe. Because particularly Japan and the US have tended to lower interest rates in response to financial crisis, the low interest rate policies in the large countries and thereby speculative exaggerations may continue. According to Wicksell and Hayek a higher level of interest rates in the large countries would reveal the structural distortions that have come along with the ample liquidity supply.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 4019.
Date of creation: 05 Apr 2007
Date of revision:
Bubbles; Boom-bust cycles; Capital Flows; Emerging Markets; Hayek; Wicksell;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
- E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
- B53 - Schools of Economic Thought and Methodology - - Current Heterodox Approaches - - - Austrian
- E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2007-07-20 (All new papers)
- NEP-CBA-2007-07-20 (Central Banking)
- NEP-FDG-2007-07-20 (Financial Development & Growth)
- NEP-HIS-2007-07-20 (Business, Economic & Financial History)
- NEP-MAC-2007-07-20 (Macroeconomics)
- NEP-MON-2007-07-20 (Monetary Economics)
- NEP-SEA-2007-07-20 (South East Asia)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
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112003, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
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China Economic Review,
Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 183-196, June.
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- Andreas Hoffmann, 2010.
"An Overinvestment Cycle In Central And Eastern Europe?,"
Wiley Blackwell, vol. 61(4), pages 711-734, November.
- Hoffmann, Andreas, 2009. "An Overinvestment Cycle in Central and Eastern Europe?," MPRA Paper 15668, University Library of Munich, Germany.
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