An Overinvestment Cycle In Central And Eastern Europe?
AbstractPrior to the Asian crisis, easy liquidity conditions contributed to credit expansion and overinvestment in the East Asian economies until they were hit by a deep recession. Similarly to the developments in the tiger economies in the 1990s, Central and Eastern European (CEE) grew rapidly from 2001 to 2007, due to foreign capital inflows. But the current global financial turmoil and economic downswing pulled the CEE economies into the maelstrom of the crisis. With the Asian experience in mind, the aim of this paper is to analyze whether overinvestment due to easy liquidity conditions possibly emerged and contributed to the crisis in CEE. Copyright � 2010 The Author. Journal compilation � 2010 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Wiley Blackwell in its journal Metroeconomica.
Volume (Year): 61 (2010)
Issue (Month): 4 (November)
Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/journal.asp?ref=0026-1386
Other versions of this item:
- Hoffmann, Andreas, 2009. "An Overinvestment Cycle in Central and Eastern Europe?," MPRA Paper 15668, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
- F59 - International Economics - - International Relations and International Political Economy - - - Other
- F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
- B53 - Schools of Economic Thought and Methodology - - Current Heterodox Approaches - - - Austrian
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Belke, Ansgar & Polleit, Thorsten, 2006. "How the ECB and US Fed set interest rates," Frankfurt School - Working Paper Series 72, Frankfurt School of Finance and Management.
- Fabio Canova, 2003.
"The transmission of US shocks to Latin America,"
Economics Working Papers
925, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Jun 2004.
- Ronald McKinnon & Gunther Schnabl, 2009. "The Case for Stabilizing China's Exchange Rate: Setting the Stage for Fiscal Expansion," China & World Economy, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 17(1), pages 1-32.
- Lombardi, Marco J. & Sgherri, Silvia, 2007.
"(Un)naturally low? Sequential Monte Carlo tracking of the US natural interest rate,"
Working Paper Series
0794, European Central Bank.
- Marco Lombardi & Silvia Sgherri, 2007. "(Un)naturally Low? Sequential Monte Carlo Tracking of the US Natural Interest Rate," DNB Working Papers 142, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
- Giancarlo Corsetti & Paolo Pesenti & Nouriel Roubini, 1998.
"Paper tigers? A model of the Asian crisis,"
9822, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
- Schnabl, Gunther, 2007.
"Exchange rate volatility and growth in small open economies at the EMU periphery,"
Working Paper Series
0773, European Central Bank.
- Schnabl, Gunther, 2008. "Exchange rate volatility and growth in small open economies at the EMU periphery," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 70-91, March.
- Laura Ehrlich & Ülo Kaasik & Anu Randveer, 2002. "The impact of Scandinavian economies on Estonia via foreign trade and direct investments," Bank of Estonia Working Papers 2002-4, Bank of Estonia, revised 12 Nov 2002.
- Rotemberg, Julio J & Saloner, Garth, 1987.
"The Relative Rigidity of Monopoly Pricing,"
American Economic Review,
American Economic Association, vol. 77(5), pages 917-26, December.
- Julio Rotemberg & Garth Saloner, 1986. "The Relative Rigidity of Monopoly Pricing," Working papers 414, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
- Julio J. Rotemberg & Garth Saloner, 1986. "The Relative Rigidity of Monopoly Pricing," NBER Working Papers 1943, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Katerina Arnostova & Jaromir Hurnik, 2005. "The Monetary Transmission Mechanism in the Czech Republic (evidence from VAR analysis)," Working Papers 2005/04, Czech National Bank, Research Department.
- Granger, C W J, 1969. "Investigating Causal Relations by Econometric Models and Cross-Spectral Methods," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 37(3), pages 424-38, July.
- Fidrmuc, Jarko & Korhonen, Iikka, 2006.
"Meta-analysis of the business cycle correlation between the euro area and the CEECs,"
Journal of Comparative Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 518-537, September.
- Jarko Fidrmuc & Iikka Korhonen, 2006. "Meta-Analysis of the Business Cycle Correlation between the Euro Area and the CEECs," CESifo Working Paper Series 1693, CESifo Group Munich.
- Urmas Sepp & Martti Randveer, 2002. "Aspects of the Sustainability of Estonian Currency Board Arrangement," Bank of Estonia Working Papers 2002-05, Bank of Estonia, revised 11 Oct 2002.
- Beck, T.H.L. & Demirgüç-Kunt, A. & Levine, R., 2000.
"A new database on financial development and structure,"
Open Access publications from Tilburg University
urn:nbn:nl:ui:12-3125518, Tilburg University.
- Beck, Thorsten & Demirguc-Kunt, Asli & Levine, Ross, 1999. "A new database on financial development and structure," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2146, The World Bank.
- Ansgar Belke & Thorsten Polleit, 2006.
"How the ECB and the US Fed Set Interest Rates,"
Diskussionspapiere aus dem Institut fÃ¼r Volkswirtschaftslehre der UniversitÃ¤t Hohenheim
269/2006, Department of Economics, University of Hohenheim, Germany.
- Dallas S. Batten & Daniel L. Thornton, 1983. "Polynomial distributed lags and the estimation of the St. Louis equation," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Apr, pages 13-25.
- Andreas Hoffmann & Gunther Schnabl, 2007.
"Monetary Policy, Vagabonding Liquidity and Bursting Bubbles in New and Emerging Markets – An Overinvestment View,"
CESifo Working Paper Series
2100, CESifo Group Munich.
- Gunther Schnabl & Andreas Hoffmann, 2008. "Monetary Policy, Vagabonding Liquidity and Bursting Bubbles in New and Emerging Markets: An Overinvestment View," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(9), pages 1226-1252, 09.
- Schnabl, Gunther & Hoffmann, Andreas, 2007. "Monetary Policy, Vagabonding Liquidity and Bursting Bubbles in New and Emerging Markets - An Overinvestment View," MPRA Paper 5201, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Ronald McKinnon & Gunther Schnabl, 2009. "China's financial conundrum and global imbalances," BIS Working Papers 277, Bank for International Settlements.
- Max Watson & Valerie Herzberg, 2007. "Economic Convergence in South-Eastern Europe: Will the Financial Sector deliver?," Chapters in SUERF Studies, SUERF - The European Money and Finance Forum.
- Schnabl, Gunther & Hoffmann, Andreas, 2010.
"The theory of optimum currency areas and growth in emerging markets,"
84, University of Leipzig, Faculty of Economics and Management Science.
- Andreas Hoffmann & Gunther Schnabl, 2011. "The theory of optimum currency areas and growth in emerging markets," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 18(6), pages 513-517.
- Belke, Ansgar & Orth, Walter & Setzer, Ralph, 2008. "Liquidity and the dynamic pattern of price adjustment: a global view," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2008,25, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
- Schnabl, Gunther & Hoffmann, Andreas, 2007.
"Geldpolitik, vagabundierende Liquidität und platzende Blasen in neuen und Aufstrebenden Märkten
[Monetary Policy, Vagabonding Liquidity and Bursting Bubbles in New and Emerging Markets]," MPRA Paper 4019, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Paul Grauwe & Gunther Schnabl, 2005.
"Nominal Versus Real Convergence - EMU Entry Scenarios for the New Member States,"
Wiley Blackwell, vol. 58(4), pages 537-555, November.
- De Grauwe, Paul & Schnabl, G, 2005. "Nominal versus real convergence - EMU entry scenarios for the new member states," Open Access publications from Katholieke Universiteit Leuven urn:hdl:123456789/101093, Katholieke Universiteit Leuven.
- Gunther Schnabl & Christina Ziegler, 2008. "Exchange Rate Regime and Wage Determination in Central and Eastern Europe," CESifo Working Paper Series 2471, CESifo Group Munich.
- Stanley Fischer, 2001. "Exchange Rate Regimes: Is the Bipolar View Correct?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 15(2), pages 3-24, Spring.
- Richard Herring & Susan Wachter, . "Bubbles in Real Estate Markets," Zell/Lurie Center Working Papers 402, Wharton School Samuel Zell and Robert Lurie Real Estate Center, University of Pennsylvania.
- Mojon, Benoît & Peersman, Gert, 2001. "A VAR description of the effects of monetary policy in the individual countries of the euro area," Working Paper Series 0092, European Central Bank.
- Hyman P. Minsky, 1992. "The Financial Instability Hypothesis," Economics Working Paper Archive wp_74, Levy Economics Institute, The.
- Sims, Christopher A, 1980. "Macroeconomics and Reality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(1), pages 1-48, January.
- John C. Williams, 2003. "The natural rate of interest," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Oct 31.
- Leonall C. Andersen & Jerry L. Jordon, 1968. "Monetary and fiscal actions: a test of their relative importance in economic stabilization," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Nov, pages 11-23.
- Anthony Carilli & Gregory Dempster, 2008. "Is the Austrian business cycle theory still relevant?," The Review of Austrian Economics, Springer, vol. 21(4), pages 271-281, December.
- Max Watson & Valerie Herzberg, 2007. "Economic Convergence in South-Eastern Europe: Will the Financial Sector deliver?," SUERF Studies, SUERF - The European Money and Finance Forum, number 2007/2 edited by Morten Balling, March.
- Gerhard Fenz & Martin Schneider, 2008. "Transmission of business cycle shocks between unequal neighbours: Germany and Austria," Working Papers 137, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank).
- Sa, S., 2006. "Capital flows and credit booms in emerging market economies?," Financial Stability Review, Banque de France, issue 9, pages 49-66, December.
- Andreas Hoffmann & Gunther Schnabl, 2011. "National Monetary Policy, Internatinal Economic Instability and Feeback Effects - An Overinvestment View," Global Financial Markets Working Paper Series 19-2011, Friedrich-Schiller-University Jena.
- Hoffmann, Andreas, 2013. "The euro as a proxy for the classical gold standard? Government debt financing and political commitment in historical perspective," Working Papers 119, University of Leipzig, Faculty of Economics and Management Science.
- Hoffmann, Andreas, 2011.
"Determinants of carry trades in Central and Eastern Europe,"
102, University of Leipzig, Faculty of Economics and Management Science.
- A. Hoffmann, 2012. "Determinants of carry trades in Central and Eastern Europe," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 22(18), pages 1479-1490, September.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Wiley-Blackwell Digital Licensing) or (Christopher F. Baum).
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.