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Determinants of Global and Intra-European Imbalances

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  • Gunther Schnabl

    ()
    (Institute for Economic Policy, University of Leipzig)

  • Stephan Freitag

    ()
    (Institute for Economic Policy, University of Leipzig)

Abstract

The paper discusses global current account imbalances in the context of an asymmetric world monetary system and asymmetric current account developments. It identifies the US and Germany as center countries with rising / high current account deficits (US) and surpluses (Germany). These are matched by current account surpluses of countries stabilizing their exchange rates against the dollar (dollar periphery) and current account deficits of countries stabilizing their exchange rate against the euro or members of the euro area (euro periphery). The paper finds that changes of world current account positions are closely linked to the monetary policy decision patterns both in the centers and peripheries. Whereas in the centers current account positions are affected by monetary policies, in the peripheries exchange rate stabilization cum sterilization matters. In specific, monetary expansion in the US as well as exchange rate stabilization and sterilization policies in the dollar periphery are found to have contributed to global imbalances.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Friedrich-Schiller-University Jena in its series Global Financial Markets Working Paper Series with number 25-2011.

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Date of creation: 28 May 2012
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Handle: RePEc:hlj:hljwrp:25-2011

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Web page: http://www.gfinm.de

Related research

Keywords: Global Imbalances; Intra-European Imbalances; Asymmetric Monetary Policies; Foreign Reserve Accumulation; Sterilization; Granger Causality Tests; Panel Regressions;

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References

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  1. Gunther Schnabl, 2011. "The role of the chinese dollar peg for macroeconomic stability in China and the world economy," Global Financial Markets Working Paper Series 13-2010, Friedrich-Schiller-University Jena.
  2. Blundell, R. & Bond, S., 1995. "Initial Conditions and Moment Restrictions in Dynamic Panel Data Models," Economics Papers 104, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
  3. Gunther Schnabl & Franziska Schobert, 2009. "Global Asymmetries In Monetary Policy Operations: Debtor Central Banks Of The Mena Region," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 77(s1), pages 85-107, 09.
  4. repec:lus:reveco:v:60:y:2009:i:2:p:103-137 is not listed on IDEAS
  5. Gunther Schnabl & Holger Zemanek, 2010. "Inter-temporal Savings, Current Account Dynamics and Asymmetric Shocks in a Heterogeneous European Monetary Union," CESifo Working Paper Series 3279, CESifo Group Munich.
  6. Sabine Herrmann & Adalbert Winkler, 2009. "Financial markets and the current account: emerging Europe versus emerging Asia," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer, vol. 145(3), pages 531-550, October.
  7. Martin Feldstein, 2008. "Resolving the Global Imbalance: The Dollar and the U.S. Saving Rate," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 22(3), pages 113-25, Summer.
  8. Michael Dooley & David Folkerts-Landau & Peter Garber, 2005. "An essay on the revived Bretton Woods system," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Feb.
  9. Christophe Hurlin & Baptiste Venet, 2008. "Financial Development and Growth: A Re-Examination using a Panel Granger Causality Test," Working Papers halshs-00319995, HAL.
  10. Andreas Hoffmann & Gunther Schnabl, 2007. "Monetary Policy, Vagabonding Liquidity and Bursting Bubbles in New and Emerging Markets – An Overinvestment View," CESifo Working Paper Series 2100, CESifo Group Munich.
  11. Arellano, Manuel & Bond, Stephen, 1991. "Some Tests of Specification for Panel Data: Monte Carlo Evidence and an Application to Employment Equations," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 58(2), pages 277-97, April.
  12. David Roodman, 2006. "How to Do xtabond2: An Introduction to "Difference" and "System" GMM in Stata," Working Papers 103, Center for Global Development.
  13. Sajal Lahiri & A. K. M. Mahbub Morshed, 2010. "Current Account Imbalances and Foreign Investment: A Theoretical Analysis of Interrelationships and Causalities," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 18(2), pages 369-381, 05.
  14. Feldstein, Martin, 2008. "Resolving the Global Imbalance: The Dollar and the U.S. Saving Rate," Scholarly Articles 2792081, Harvard University Department of Economics.
  15. Juann H. Hung & Edward N. Gamber, 2010. "An Absorption Approach to Modeling the US Current Account," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 18(2), pages 334-350, 05.
  16. Hans-Werner Sinn, 2010. "Rescuing Europe," CESifo Forum, Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 11(SPECIALIS), pages 1-22, 08.
  17. Ronald McKinnon & Gunther Schnabl, 2009. "The Case for Stabilizing China's Exchange Rate: Setting the Stage for Fiscal Expansion," China & World Economy, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 17(1), pages 1-32.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Gunther Schnabl, 2012. "Monetary Policy Reform in a World of Central Banks," Global Financial Markets Working Paper Series 26-2012, Friedrich-Schiller-University Jena.
  2. Gunther Schnabl, 2012. "Die japanischen Lehren für die europäische Krise," Global Financial Markets Working Paper Series 2012-36, Friedrich-Schiller-University Jena.
  3. Luigi Bonatti & Andrea Fracasso, 2012. "A Germans’ dilemma: save the euro or preserve their socio-economic model," Department of Economics Working Papers 1207, Department of Economics, University of Trento, Italia.
  4. Georg Dettmann, 2014. "Determinants of Internal and External Imbalances within the Euro Area," Working Papers 01/2014, University of Verona, Department of Economics.

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