IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/kap/revaec/v14y2001i4p331-51.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Empirical Evidence on the Austrian Business Cycle Theory

Author

Listed:
  • Keeler, James P

Abstract

The Austrian business cycle theory suggests that a monetary shock disturbs relative prices, such as the term structure of interest rates, systematically altering profit rates across economic sectors. Resource use responds to those changes, generating a cyclical pattern of real income. The divergence of the interest rate structure, from the previous and unchanged time preferences, means that the expansion is unsustainable and must end in recession. Quarterly data for eight U.S. business cycles, 1950:1 through 1991:1 are standardized by time period and used to explore business cycle facts and relations between money, interest rates, capacity utilization and income. Results are consistent with the hypotheses of the Austrian theory of a business cycle caused by a monetary shock and propagated by relative price changes. Copyright 2001 by Kluwer Academic Publishers

Suggested Citation

  • Keeler, James P, 2001. "Empirical Evidence on the Austrian Business Cycle Theory," The Review of Austrian Economics, Springer;Society for the Development of Austrian Economics, vol. 14(4), pages 331-351, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:revaec:v:14:y:2001:i:4:p:331-51
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://journals.kluweronline.com/issn/0889-3047/contents
    File Function: link to full text
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Robert Lester & Jonathan Wolff, 2013. "The empirical relevance of the Mises-Hayek theory of the trade cycle," The Review of Austrian Economics, Springer;Society for the Development of Austrian Economics, vol. 26(4), pages 433-461, December.
    2. Alonso-Neira, Miguel A. & Sánchez-Bayón, Antonio & Castro-Oliva, Marcos, 2023. "Teoría austriaca del ciclo económico aplicada al caso español: del inicio del euro a la gran recesión y su recuperación [Austrian economic cycle theory applied to the Spanish case: from the begging," Revista de Métodos Cuantitativos para la Economía y la Empresa = Journal of Quantitative Methods for Economics and Business Administration, Universidad Pablo de Olavide, Department of Quantitative Methods for Economics and Business Administration, vol. 35(1), pages 280-310, June.
    3. Philipp Bagus, 2008. "Monetary policy as bad medicine: The volatile relationship between business cycles and asset prices," The Review of Austrian Economics, Springer;Society for the Development of Austrian Economics, vol. 21(4), pages 283-300, December.
    4. Thierry Aimar & Francis Bismans & Claude Diebolt, 2010. "Le cycle économique : une synthèse," Revue Française d'Économie, Programme National Persée, vol. 24(4), pages 3-65.
    5. Simon Bilo, 2021. "Hayek’s Theory of Business Cycles: A Theory That Will Remain Obscure?," Journal of Private Enterprise, The Association of Private Enterprise Education, vol. 36(Fall 2021), pages 27-47.
    6. François Facchini, 2004. "La théorie autrichienne des cycles : une théorie de la récurrence des erreurs collectives d’anticipation," Post-Print hal-01286790, HAL.
    7. Andreas Hoffmann, 2014. "Zero-interest Rate Policy and Unintended Consequences in Emerging Markets," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 37(10), pages 1367-1387, October.
    8. J. Subrick & Andrew Young, 2010. "Nobelity and novelty: Finn Kydland and Edward Prescott’s contributions viewed from Vienna," The Review of Austrian Economics, Springer;Society for the Development of Austrian Economics, vol. 23(1), pages 35-53, March.
    9. Cachanosky, Nicolás & Lewin, Peter, 2016. "An empirical application of the EVA® framework to business cycles," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 60-67.
    10. Robert Mulligan, 2006. "Accounting for the business cycle: Nominal rigidities, factor heterogeneity, and Austrian capital theory," The Review of Austrian Economics, Springer;Society for the Development of Austrian Economics, vol. 19(4), pages 311-336, December.
    11. Anthony Carilli & Gregory Dempster, 2008. "Is the Austrian business cycle theory still relevant?," The Review of Austrian Economics, Springer;Society for the Development of Austrian Economics, vol. 21(4), pages 271-281, December.
    12. Andrew Young, 2012. "The time structure of production in the US, 2002–2009," The Review of Austrian Economics, Springer;Society for the Development of Austrian Economics, vol. 25(2), pages 77-92, June.
    13. de Groot, E.A. & Segers, R. & Prins, D., 2022. "Non-resonating cycles in a dynamic model for investment behavior," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 177(C).
    14. Andreas Hoffmann, 2010. "An Overinvestment Cycle In Central And Eastern Europe?," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 61(4), pages 711-734, November.
    15. Aykut Ekinci, 2016. "Rethinking Credit Risk under the Malinvestment Concept: The Case of Germany, Spain and Italy," European Financial and Accounting Journal, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2016(1), pages 39-63.
    16. Thierry Aimar & Francis Bismans & Claude Diebolt, 2012. "Economic Cycles: A Synthesis," Working Papers 12-11, Association Française de Cliométrie (AFC).
    17. William Luther & Mark Cohen, 2014. "An Empirical Analysis of the Austrian Business Cycle Theory," Atlantic Economic Journal, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 42(2), pages 153-169, June.
    18. Xinping Zhang & Yimeng Zhang & Yunchan Zhu, 2021. "COVID-19 Pandemic, Sustainability of Macroeconomy, and Choice of Monetary Policy Targets: A NK-DSGE Analysis Based on China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(6), pages 1-20, March.
    19. Andrew Young, 2011. "Illustrating the importance of Austrian business cycle theory: A reply to Murphy, Barnett, and Block; A call for quantitative study," The Review of Austrian Economics, Springer;Society for the Development of Austrian Economics, vol. 24(1), pages 19-28, March.
    20. Nicolás Cachanosky & Alexander W. Salter, 2017. "The view from Vienna: An analysis of the renewed interest in the Mises-Hayek theory of the business cycle," The Review of Austrian Economics, Springer;Society for the Development of Austrian Economics, vol. 30(2), pages 169-192, June.
    21. Robert F. Mulligan, 2005. "The Austrian Business Cycle: a Vector Error-correction Model with Commercial and Industrial Loans," Journal of Private Enterprise, The Association of Private Enterprise Education, vol. 21(Fall 2005), pages 59-91.
    22. Facchini, François, 2004. "La théorie autrichienne des cycles : une théorie de la récurrence des erreurs collectives d’anticipation," L'Actualité Economique, Société Canadienne de Science Economique, vol. 80(1), pages 67-94, Mars.
    23. George Bitros, 2008. "Why the structure of capital and the useful lives of its components matter: A test based on a model of Austrian descent," The Review of Austrian Economics, Springer;Society for the Development of Austrian Economics, vol. 21(4), pages 301-328, December.
    24. Martin Komrska, 2015. "Rakouská teorie hospodářského cyklu: VAR analýza pro USA v letech 1978-2013 [The Austrian Business Cycle Theory: VAR Analysis for USA between 1978-2013]," Politická ekonomie, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2015(1), pages 57-73.
    25. Andrzej Jędruchniewicz, 2015. "The Price Structure in the Polish Business Cycle. The Downward Phase," Ekonomia journal, Faculty of Economic Sciences, University of Warsaw, vol. 40.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:kap:revaec:v:14:y:2001:i:4:p:331-51. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.