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China's dominance hypothesis and the emergence of a tri-polar global currency system

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  • Fratzscher, Marcel
  • Mehl, Arnaud

Abstract

This paper assesses whether the international monetary system is already tripolar and centred around the US dollar, the euro and the Chinese renminbi (RMB). It focuses on what we call China’s “dominance hypothesis”, i.e. whether the renminbi is already the dominant currency in Asia, exerting a large influence on exchange rate and monetary policies in the region, a direct reference to the old “German dominance hypothesis” which ascribed to the German mark a dominant role in Europe in the 1980s-1990s. Using a global factor model of exchange rates and a complementary event study, we find evidence that the RMB has become a key driver of currency movements in emerging Asia since the mid-2000s, and even more so since the global financial crisis. These results are consistent with China’s dominance hypothesis and with the view that the international monetary system is already tri-polar. However, we also find that China’s currency movements are to some extent affected by those in the rest of Asia. JEL Classification: F30, F31, F33, N20

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by European Central Bank in its series Working Paper Series with number 1392.

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Date of creation: Oct 2011
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Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20111392

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Keywords: China; euro; Exchange Rates; German dominance hypothesis; international monetary system; renminbi; tri-polarity; US dollar;

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References

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  1. Blinder, Alan S. & Ehrmann, Michael & de Haan, Jakob & Fratzscher, Marcel & Jansen, David-Jan, 2008. "Central Bank communication and monetary policy: a survey of theory and evidence," Working Paper Series 0898, European Central Bank.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Chang Shu & Dong He & Xiaoqiang Cheng, 2014. "One currency, two markets: the renminbi’s growing influence in Asia-Pacific," BIS Working Papers 446, Bank for International Settlements.
  2. Eichengreen, Barry & Mehl, Arnaud & Chiţu, Livia, 2012. "When did the dollar overtake sterling as the leading international currency? Evidence from the bond markets," Working Paper Series 1433, European Central Bank.
  3. Hyoung-kyu Chey, 2013. "The Concepts, Consequences, and Determinants of Currency Internationalization," GRIPS Discussion Papers 13-03, National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies.
  4. Ignazio Angeloni & André Sapir, 2011. "The international monetary system is changing: what opportunities and risks for the euro?," Working Papers 632, Bruegel.
  5. Jean-Pierre Allegret & Cécile Couharde & Cyriac Guillaumin, 2012. "The Impact of External Shocks in East Asia: Lessons from a Structural VAR Model with Block Exogeneity," EconomiX Working Papers 2012-1, University of Paris West - Nanterre la Défense, EconomiX.

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