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Asymmetry in the EMS: New evidence based on non-linear forecasts

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Author Info
Bajo-Rubio, Oscar
Sosvilla-Rivero, Simon
Fernandez-Rodriguez, Fernando

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Article provided by Elsevier in its journal European Economic Review.

Volume (Year): 45 (2001)
Issue (Month): 3 (March)
Pages: 451-473
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Handle: RePEc:eee:eecrev:v:45:y:2001:i:3:p:451-473

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Oscar Bajo-Rubio & M. Dolores Montávez-Garcés, . "There was monetary autonomy in Europe on the eve of EMU?. The German dominance hypothesis re-examined," Studies on the Spanish Economy 52, FEDEA. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Phillips, P.C.B., 1986. "Testing for a Unit Root in Time Series Regression," Cahiers de recherche 8633, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
    Other versions:
  3. Cohen, Daniel & Wyplosz, Charles, 1989. "The European Monetary Union: An Agnostic Evaluation," CEPR Discussion Papers 306, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Fernandez-Rodriguez, Fernando & Sosvilla-Rivero, Simon & Andrada-Felix, Julian, 1997. "Combining Information in Exchange Rate Forecasting: Evidence from the EMS," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 4(7), pages 441-444, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Hassapis, Christis & Pittis, Nikitas & Prodromidis, Kyprianos, 1999. "Unit roots and Granger causality in the EMS interest rates: the German Dominance Hypothesis revisited," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 47-73, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Fernandez-Rodriguez, Fernando & Sosvilla-Rivero, Simon & Andrada-Felix, Julian, 1999. "Exchange-rate forecasts with simultaneous nearest-neighbour methods: evidence from the EMS," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 15(4), pages 383-392, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  7. Giavazzi, Francesco & Pagano, Marco, 1986. "The Advantages of Tying One's Hands: EMS Discipline and Central Bank Credibility," CEPR Discussion Papers 135, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  8. Bajo-Rubio, Oscar & Fernandez-Rodriguez, Fernando & Sosvilla-Rivero, Simon, 1992. "Chaotic behaviour in exchange-rate series : First results for the Peseta--U.S. dollar case," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 39(2), pages 207-211, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Hsieh, David A, 1989. "Testing for Nonlinear Dependence in Daily Foreign Exchange Rates," Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 62(3), pages 339-68, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Rogoff, Kenneth, 1985. "Can exchange rate predictability be achieved without monetary convergence? : Evidence from the EMS," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 28(1-2), pages 93-115. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Granger, C W J, 1969. "Investigating Causal Relations by Econometric Models and Cross-Spectral Methods," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 37(3), pages 424-38, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. repec:att:wimass:199520 is not listed on IDEAS
  13. Henry, Jerome & Jens Weidmann, 1994. "Asymmetry in the EMS revisited: Evidence from the causality analysis of daily Eurorates," Discussion Paper Serie B 280, University of Bonn, Germany.
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  14. Michele Fratianni & Juergen Hagen, 1992. "German dominance in the EMS:The empirical evidence," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 3(1), pages 127-128, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  15. Koedijk, Kees G. & Kool, Clemens J. M., 1992. "Dominant interest and inflation differentials within the EMS," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 36(4), pages 925-943, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  16. Soofi, Abdol S. & Cao, Liangyue, 1999. "Nonlinear deterministic forecasting of daily Peseta-Dollar exchange rate," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 62(2), pages 175-180, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  17. Scheinkman, Jose A & LeBaron, Blake, 1989. "Nonlinear Dynamics and Stock Returns," Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 62(3), pages 311-37, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  18. Kenneth S. Rogoff, 1984. "Can exchange rate predictability be achieved without monetary convergence? : evidence from the EMS," International Finance Discussion Papers 245, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  19. De Grauwe, Paul, 1989. "Is the European Monetary System a DM-Zone?," CEPR Discussion Papers 297, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  20. Diebold, Francis X. & Nason, James A., 1990. "Nonparametric exchange rate prediction?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(3-4), pages 315-332, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  21. Hsiao, Cheng, 1981. "Autoregressive modelling and money-income causality detection," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 7(1), pages 85-106. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  22. Mizrach, B, 1992. "Multivariate Nearest-Neighbor Forecasts of EMS Exchange Rates," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 7(S), pages S151-63, Suppl. De. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  23. Mélitz, Jacques, 1988. "Monetary Discipline and Cooperation in the European Monetary System: A Synthesis," CEPR Discussion Papers 219, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  24. Johansen, Soren, 1991. "Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(6), pages 1551-80, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  25. Michele Fratianni & Juergen Hagen, 1990. "German dominance in the EMS," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 1(1), pages 67-87, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  26. Newey, Whitney K & West, Kenneth D, 1994. "Automatic Lag Selection in Covariance Matrix Estimation," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 61(4), pages 631-53, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  27. Ashley, R & Granger, C W J & Schmalensee, R, 1980. "Advertising and Aggregate Consumption: An Analysis of Causality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(5), pages 1149-67, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  28. W. A. Broock & J. A. Scheinkman & W. D. Dechert & B. LeBaron, 1996. "A test for independence based on the correlation dimension," Econometric Reviews, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 15(3), pages 197-235. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  29. Karfakis, Costas J & Moschos, Demetrios M, 1990. "Interest Rate Linkages within the European Monetary System: A Time Series Analysis," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 22(3), pages 389-94, August.
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  30. Diebold, Francis X & Mariano, Roberto S, 1995. "Comparing Predictive Accuracy," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 13(3), pages 253-63, July.
    Other versions:
  31. Dolado, Juan J & Jenkinson, Tim & Sosvilla-Rivero, Simon, 1990. " Cointegration and Unit Roots," Journal of Economic Surveys, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 4(3), pages 249-73.
Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Oscar Bajo-Rubio & M. Dolores Montávez-Garcés, 2002. "Was there Monetary Autonomy in Europe on the eve of EMU? The German Dominance Hypothesis Re-Examined," Journal of Applied Economics, Universidad del CEMA, vol. 0, pages 185-207, November. [Downloadable!]
  2. Francisco Ledesma-Rodríguez & Manuel Navarro-Ibáñez & Jorge Pérez-Rodríguez & Simón Sosvilla-Rivero, 2005. "Assessing the credibility of a target zone: evidence from the EMS," Applied Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 37(19), pages 2265-2287, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  3. Tuysuz, Sukriye & Kuhry, Yves, 2007. "Interactions between interest rates and the transmission of monetary and economic news: the cases of US and UK," MPRA Paper 5255, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  4. Costas Milas & Ilias Lekkos & Theodore Panagiotidis, 2006. "Forecasting interest rate swap spreads using domestic and international risk factors: Evidence from linear and non-linear models," Keele Economics Research Papers KERP 2006/05, Centre for Economic Research, Keele University. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  5. Francisco Ledesma-Rodríguez & Manuel Navarro-Ibáñezr & Jorge Pérez-Rodríguez & Simón Sosvilla-Rivero, . "Implicit regimes for the Spanish Peseta/Deutschmark exchange rate," Working Papers 2005-21, FEDEA. [Downloadable!]
  6. Francisco Ledesma-Rodríguez & Jorge Pérez-Rodríguez & Simón Sosvilla-Rivero, 2006. "An empirical examination of exchange-rate credibility determinants in the EMS," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 13(13), pages 847-850, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  7. Simón Sosvilla-Rivero & Irene Olloqui, . "Instability in cointegration regressions:Evidence from inflation rate convergence in EU countries," Studies on the Spanish Economy 53, FEDEA. [Downloadable!]
  8. Angelos Kanas, 2003. "Non-linear forecasts of stock returns," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(4), pages 299-315. [Downloadable!]
  9. Simón Sosvilla-Rivero & José A. Herce & Juan-José. de Lucio, . "Convergence in social protection across EU countries, 1970-1999," Working Papers 2003-01, FEDEA. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  10. Simón Sosvilla-Rivero & Salvador Gil-Pareja, 2004. "Price convergence in the European Union," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 11(1), pages 39-47, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  11. Fernando Fernández-Rodríguez & Simón Sosvilla-Rivero & Julián Andrada-Félix, . "Nearest-Neighbour Predictions in Foreign Exchange Markets," Working Papers 2002-05, FEDEA. [Downloadable!]
  12. Reyes Maroto Illera & Francisco Pérez Bermejo & Simón Sosvilla-Rivero, . "An Eclectic Approach to Currency Crises: Drawing Lessons from the EMS Experience," Working Papers 2002-22, FEDEA. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  13. Forssbaeck, Jens & Oxelheim, Lars, 2005. "On the Link between Exchange-Rate Regimes and Monetary-Policy Autonomy: The European Experience," Working Paper Series 637, Research Institute of Industrial Economics. [Downloadable!]
  14. F. FernÁndez-RodrÍguez & S. Sosvilla-Rivero & J. Andrada-FÉlix, 2003. "Technical analysis in foreign exchange markets: evidence from the EMS," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 13(2), pages 113-122, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  15. Simon Sosvilla-Rivero & Reyes Maroto Illera, . "Regimen Changes and Duration in the European Monetary System," Working Papers on International Economics and Finance 02-05, FEDEA. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  16. Dios Palomares, Rafaela & Martínez Paz, José Miguel & Martínezcarrasco Pleite, Federico, 2006. "Including environmental variables in the effi ciency analysis: A three-step method/El análisis de efi ciencia con variables de entorno: un método de programas con tres etapas," Estudios de Economía Aplicada, Estudios de Economía Aplicada, vol. 24, pages 477-497, Abril. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  17. Oscar Bajo-Rubio & Simón Sosvilla-Rivero & Fernando Fernández-Rodríguez, . "Non-Linear Forecasting Methods: Some Applications to the Analysis of Financial Series," Working Papers 2002-01, FEDEA. [Downloadable!]
  18. Francisco Pérez-Bermejo & Simón Sosvilla-Rivero, . "Currency Crises and Political Factors: Drawing Lessons from the EMS Experience," Working Papers 2004-04, FEDEA. [Downloadable!]
  19. Simón Sosvilla-Rivero & Francisco Pérez-Bermejo, . "Credibility and Duration in Target Zones: Evidence from the EMS," Working Papers 2003-19, FEDEA. [Downloadable!]
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