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Interest rate causality and asymmetry in the EMS

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  • Karsten Biltoft
  • Christian Boersch

Abstract

This paper investigates the hypothesis of an asymmetric EMS under German leadership in the period from 1983 to 1991. The approach adopted was to undertake Granger-causality tests on daily observations of changes in interest rates. For the group of core countries we find that, in recent years, the EMS has operated asymmetrically. This asymmetry has developed over the years and was not evident prior to 1987. Copyright Kluwer Academic Publishers 1992

Suggested Citation

  • Karsten Biltoft & Christian Boersch, 1992. "Interest rate causality and asymmetry in the EMS," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 3(3), pages 297-306, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:openec:v:3:y:1992:i:3:p:297-306
    DOI: 10.1007/BF01886154
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Melitz, Jacques, 1988. "Monetary Discipline and Cooperation in the European Monetary System: A Synthesis," CEPR Discussion Papers 219, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    2. Bollerslev, Tim, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 307-327, April.
    3. Francesco Giavazzi & Marco Pagano, 1991. "The Advantage of Tying One's Hands: EMS Discipline and Central Bank Credibility," NBER Chapters, in: International Volatility and Economic Growth: The First Ten Years of The International Seminar on Macroeconomics, pages 303-330, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Michele Fratianni & Juergen Hagen, 1992. "German dominance in the EMS:The empirical evidence," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 3(1), pages 127-128, February.
    5. Francesco Giavazzi & Alberto Giovannini, 1987. "Models of the EMS: is Europe a Greater Deutschmark Area?," International Economic Association Series, in: Ralph C. Bryant & Richard Portes (ed.), Global Macroeconomics: Policy Conflict and Cooperation, chapter 7, pages 237-272, Palgrave Macmillan.
    6. Granger, C W J, 1969. "Investigating Causal Relations by Econometric Models and Cross-Spectral Methods," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 37(3), pages 424-438, July.
    7. De Grauwe, Paul, 1989. "Is the European Monetary System a DM-Zone?," CEPR Discussion Papers 297, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    8. Michele Fratianni & Juergen Hagen, 1990. "German dominance in the EMS," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 1(1), pages 67-87, February.
    9. Ralph C. Bryant & Richard Portes (ed.), 1987. "Global Macroeconomics: Policy Conflict and Cooperation," International Economic Association Series, Palgrave Macmillan, number 978-1-349-18916-8, December.
    10. Engle, Robert F, 1982. "Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity with Estimates of the Variance of United Kingdom Inflation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 987-1007, July.
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    Cited by:

    1. Johannes Groeneveld & Kees Koedijk & Clemens Kool, 1998. "Credibility of European economic convergence," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 134(1), pages 1-24, March.
    2. Paul R. Bergin & Oscar Jorda, "undated". "Monetary Policy Coordination: A New Empirical Approach," Department of Economics 01-02, California Davis - Department of Economics.
    3. Hassapis, Christis & Pittis, Nikitas & Prodromidis, Kyprianos, 1999. "Unit roots and Granger causality in the EMS interest rates: the German Dominance Hypothesis revisited," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 47-73, January.
    4. Oscar Jorda & Paul Bergin, 2003. "Monetary Policy Coordination: A New Empirical Approach," Working Papers 12, University of California, Davis, Department of Economics.
    5. John Thornton & Alicia García-Herrero, 1997. "Additional evidence on monetary base and interest rate linkages in the EMS," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 133(2), pages 359-368, June.
    6. Paul R. Bergin & Òscar Jordà, 2017. "Measuring Monetary Policy Interdependence," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: International Macroeconomic Interdependence, chapter 14, pages 387-415, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    7. Paul R. Bergin & Òscar Jordà, 2017. "Measuring Monetary Policy Interdependence," World Scientific Book Chapters,in: International Macroeconomic Interdependence, chapter 14, pages 387-415 World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    8. Fratzscher, Marcel, 2002. "The Euro bloc, the Dollar bloc and the Yen bloc: how much monetary policy independence can exchange rate flexibility buy in an interdependent world?," Working Paper Series 154, European Central Bank.
    9. Devine, Máiréad, 1997. "The Cointegration of International Interest rates," Research Technical Papers 1/RT/97, Central Bank of Ireland.
    10. Fratzscher, Marcel, 2002. "The Euro bloc, the Dollar bloc and the Yen bloc: how much monetary policy independence can exchange rate flexibility buy in an interdependent world?," Working Paper Series 0154, European Central Bank.

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