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Asymmetry In The Ems: New Evidence Based On Non-Linear Forecasts

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Author Info
Óscar Bajo Rubio (Departamento de Economía-UPNA)
Simón Sosvilla Rivero (FEDEA and Universidad Complutense de Madrid)
Fernando Fernández Rodríguez (Universidad de Las Palmas de Gran Canaria)

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Abstract

In this paper we provide new evidence on the hypothesis of German leadership and asymmetric performance in the EMS, in the framework of causality tests, using daily data. Given the evidence about non-linearity in financial series, we propose applying non-linear forecasting methods based on the literature on complex dynamic systems. Our analysis covers nine countries, and the sample period runs until 30 April 1998, so including the more recent events in the EMS history. A comparison of our results with those obtained from standard linear econometric techniques leads us to conclude that inference on causality based on our non-linear predictors would be preferable to that based on the standard linear approach.

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Paper provided by Departamento de Economía - Universidad Pública de Navarra in its series Documentos de Trabajo - Lan Gaiak Departamento de Economía - Universidad Pública de Navarra with number 0001.

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Length: 52 pages
Date of creation: 2000
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Publication status: Published in
Handle: RePEc:nav:ecupna:0001

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Related research
Keywords: Interest rates; European Monetary System; Non-linear forecasting;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Other Model Applications
E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Determination of Interest Rates; Term Structure of Interest Rates
F33 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

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    Other versions:
  2. Phillips, P.C.B., 1986. "Testing for a Unit Root in Time Series Regression," Cahiers de recherche 8633, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
    Other versions:
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  4. Fernandez-Rodriguez, Fernando & Sosvilla-Rivero, Simon & Andrada-Felix, Julian, 1997. "Combining Information in Exchange Rate Forecasting: Evidence from the EMS," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 4(7), pages 441-444, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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    Other versions:
  7. Giavazzi, Francesco & Pagano, Marco, 1986. "The Advantages of Tying One's Hands: EMS Discipline and Central Bank Credibility," CEPR Discussion Papers 135, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. Bajo-Rubio, Oscar & Fernandez-Rodriguez, Fernando & Sosvilla-Rivero, Simon, 1992. "Chaotic behaviour in exchange-rate series : First results for the Peseta--U.S. dollar case," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 39(2), pages 207-211, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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    Other versions:
  14. Michele Fratianni & Juergen Hagen, 1992. "German dominance in the EMS:The empirical evidence," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 3(1), pages 127-128, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Ilias Lekkos & Costas Milas & Theodore Panagiotidis, 2006. "Forecasting interest rate swap spreads using domestic and international risk factors: Evidence from linear and non-linear models," Discussion Paper Series 2006_6, Department of Economics, Loughborough University, revised Mar 2006. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Oscar Bajo-Rubio & M. Dolores Montávez-Garcés, 2002. "Was there Monetary Autonomy in Europe on the eve of EMU? The German Dominance Hypothesis Re-Examined," Journal of Applied Economics, Universidad del CEMA, vol. 0, pages 185-207, November. [Downloadable!]
  3. Francisco Ledesma-Rodríguez & Jorge Pérez-Rodríguez & Simón Sosvilla-Rivero, 2006. "An empirical examination of exchange-rate credibility determinants in the EMS," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 13(13), pages 847-850, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  4. Simon Sosvilla-Rivero & Reyes Maroto Illera, . "Regimen Changes and Duration in the European Monetary System," Working Papers on International Economics and Finance 02-05, FEDEA. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  5. Simón Sosvilla-Rivero & Irene Olloqui, . "Instability in cointegration regressions:Evidence from inflation rate convergence in EU countries," Studies on the Spanish Economy 53, FEDEA. [Downloadable!]
  6. Angelos Kanas, 2003. "Non-linear forecasts of stock returns," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(4), pages 299-315. [Downloadable!]
  7. Fernando Fernández-Rodríguez & Simón Sosvilla-Rivero & Julián Andrada-Félix, . "Nearest-Neighbour Predictions in Foreign Exchange Markets," Working Papers 2002-05, FEDEA. [Downloadable!]
  8. Dios Palomares, Rafaela & Martínez Paz, José Miguel & Martínezcarrasco Pleite, Federico, 2006. "Including environmental variables in the effi ciency analysis: A three-step method/El análisis de efi ciencia con variables de entorno: un método de programas con tres etapas," Estudios de Economía Aplicada, Estudios de Economía Aplicada, vol. 24, pages 477-497, Abril. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Francisco Ledesma-Rodríguez & Manuel Navarro-Ibáñez & Jorge Pérez-Rodríguez & Simón Sosvilla-Rivero, 2005. "Assessing the credibility of a target zone: evidence from the EMS," Applied Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 37(19), pages 2265-2287, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  10. Simón Sosvilla-Rivero & José A. Herce & Juan-José. de Lucio, . "Convergence in social protection across EU countries, 1970-1999," Working Papers 2003-01, FEDEA. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  11. Reyes Maroto Illera & Francisco Pérez Bermejo & Simón Sosvilla-Rivero, . "An Eclectic Approach to Currency Crises: Drawing Lessons from the EMS Experience," Working Papers 2002-22, FEDEA. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  12. Forssbaeck, Jens & Oxelheim, Lars, 2005. "On the Link between Exchange-Rate Regimes and Monetary-Policy Autonomy: The European Experience," Working Paper Series 637, Research Institute of Industrial Economics. [Downloadable!]
  13. Tuysuz, Sukriye & Kuhry, Yves, 2007. "Interactions between interest rates and the transmission of monetary and economic news: the cases of US and UK," MPRA Paper 5255, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  14. Oscar Bajo-Rubio & Simón Sosvilla-Rivero & Fernando Fernández-Rodríguez, . "Non-Linear Forecasting Methods: Some Applications to the Analysis of Financial Series," Working Papers 2002-01, FEDEA. [Downloadable!]
  15. Francisco Ledesma-Rodríguez & Manuel Navarro-Ibáñezr & Jorge Pérez-Rodríguez & Simón Sosvilla-Rivero, . "Implicit regimes for the Spanish Peseta/Deutschmark exchange rate," Working Papers 2005-21, FEDEA. [Downloadable!]
  16. Francisco Pérez-Bermejo & Simón Sosvilla-Rivero, . "Currency Crises and Political Factors: Drawing Lessons from the EMS Experience," Working Papers 2004-04, FEDEA. [Downloadable!]
  17. Simón Sosvilla-Rivero & Salvador Gil-Pareja, . "Price Convergence in the European Union," Working Papers 2002-12, FEDEA. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  18. Simón Sosvilla-Rivero & Francisco Pérez-Bermejo, . "Credibility and Duration in Target Zones: Evidence from the EMS," Working Papers 2003-19, FEDEA. [Downloadable!]
  19. F. FernÁndez-RodrÍguez & S. Sosvilla-Rivero & J. Andrada-FÉlix, 2003. "Technical analysis in foreign exchange markets: evidence from the EMS," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 13(2), pages 113-122, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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