Stochastic behaviour of Deutsche mark exchange rates within EMS
AbstractThis article explores the intertemporal interaction of three European Monetary System (EMS) exchange rates namely, the French franc, the Belgian franc, and the Italian lira vis-a-vis the Deutsche mark from 1979 to 1999. The returns were examined using the multivariate moving average Exponential GARCH model, which is capable of accounting for potential asymmetries in the volatility transmission mechanism. The results point to significant and reciprocal volatility spillovers among markets before Germany's reunification in 1990. However, absence of spillovers and/or asymmetric behaviour of volatility is shown in the post-unification period. The 1990s witnessed a rapid process of macroeconomic convergence by the core EMS members and these actions substantially enhanced confidence about full monetary integration. Put differently, the EMS countries became better attuned to the business cycle and managed to significantly reduce consequential asymmetric shocks and thus exchange rate volatility.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Taylor and Francis Journals in its journal Applied Financial Economics.
Volume (Year): 13 (2003)
Issue (Month): 9 ()
Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://www.tandf.co.uk/journals/routledge/09603107.html
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Fred G M C Nieuwland & Willem F C Verschoor & Christian C P Wolff, 1990. "EMS Exchange Rates," CEPR Financial Markets Paper 0002, European Science Foundation Network in Financial Markets, c/o C.E.P.R, 77 Bastwick Street, London EC1V 3PZ.
- Hogan, W. P. & Sharpe, I. G., 1984. "On the relationship between the New York closing spot U.S.$[+45 degree rule]$A exchange rate and the Reserve Bank of Australia's official rate," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 73-79.
- Cohen, Daniel & Wyplosz, Charles, 1989. "The European Monetary Union: An Agnostic Evaluation," CEPR Discussion Papers 306, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Vlaar, Peter J G & Palm, Franz C, 1993.
"The Message in Weekly Exchange Rates in the European Monetary System: Mean Reversion, Conditional Heteroscedasticity, and Jumps,"
Journal of Business & Economic Statistics,
American Statistical Association, vol. 11(3), pages 351-60, July.
- Vlaar, Peter J.G. & Palm, Franz C., 1993. "The message in weekly exchange rates in the European Monetary System: mean reversion, conditional heteroskedasticity and jumps," Open Access publications from Maastricht University urn:nbn:nl:ui:27-5754, Maastricht University.
- Rogoff, Kenneth, 1985.
"Can exchange rate predictability be achieved without monetary convergence? : Evidence from the EMS,"
European Economic Review,
Elsevier, vol. 28(1-2), pages 93-115.
- Kenneth S. Rogoff, 1984. "Can exchange rate predictability be achieved without monetary convergence? : evidence from the EMS," International Finance Discussion Papers 245, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Baillie, Richard T & Bollerslev, Tim, 2002.
"The Message in Daily Exchange Rates: A Conditional-Variance Tale,"
Journal of Business & Economic Statistics,
American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 60-68, January.
- Baillie, Richard T & Bollerslev, Tim, 1989. "The Message in Daily Exchange Rates: A Conditional-Variance Tale," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 7(3), pages 297-305, July.
- Tom Doan, . "RATS program to replicate Baillie and Bollerslev GARCH models with day-of-week effects," Statistical Software Components RTZ00172, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Owen Evens & Thomas H. Mayer & Philip M. Young & Horst Ungerer, 1986. "The European Monetary System: Recent Developments," IMF Occasional Papers 48, International Monetary Fund.
- Bollerslev, Tim & Chou, Ray Y. & Kroner, Kenneth F., 1992. "ARCH modeling in finance : A review of the theory and empirical evidence," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 52(1-2), pages 5-59.
- E.K. Berndt & B.H. Hall & R.E. Hall, 1974. "Estimation and Inference in Nonlinear Structural Models," NBER Chapters, in: Annals of Economic and Social Measurement, Volume 3, number 4, pages 103-116 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Hagen, Jurgen von & Fratianni, Michele, 1990. "German dominance in the EMS: evidence from interest rates," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 9(4), pages 358-375, December.
- Herz, Bernhard & Roger, Werner, 1992. "The EMS is a greater Deutschmark area," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 36(7), pages 1413-1425, October.
- Koutmos, Gregory & Booth, G Geoffrey, 1995. "Asymmetric volatility transmission in international stock markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 14(6), pages 747-762, December.
- Giavazzi, Francesco & Pagano, Marco, 1988.
"The advantage of tying one's hands : EMS discipline and Central Bank credibility,"
European Economic Review,
Elsevier, vol. 32(5), pages 1055-1075, June.
- Francesco Giavazzi & Marco Pagano, 1991. "The Advantage of Tying One's Hands: EMS Discipline and Central Bank Credibility," NBER Chapters, in: International Volatility and Economic Growth: The First Ten Years of The International Seminar on Macroeconomics, pages 303-330 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Giavazzi, Francesco & Pagano, Marco, 1986. "The Advantages of Tying One's Hands: EMS Discipline and Central Bank Credibility," CEPR Discussion Papers 135, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Susmel, Raul & Engle, Robert F., 1994. "Hourly volatility spillovers between international equity markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 13(1), pages 3-25, February.
- Buiter, W.H. & Corsetti, G. & Roubini, N., 1992.
"Excessive Deficits: Sense and Nonsence in the Treaty of Maastricht,"
674, Yale - Economic Growth Center.
- Buiter, Willem H & Corsetti, Giancarlo & Roubini, Nouriel, 1992. "`Excessive Deficits': Sense and Nonsense in the Treaty of Maastricht," CEPR Discussion Papers 750, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- MacDonald, Ronald & Taylor, Mark P, 1991.
"Exchange Rates, Policy Convergence, and the European Monetary System,"
The Review of Economics and Statistics,
MIT Press, vol. 73(3), pages 553-58, August.
- R Macdonald & M P Taylor, . "Exchange Rates, Policy Convergence And The European Monetary System," Dundee Discussion Papers in Economics 020, Economic Studies, University of Dundee.
- MacDonald, Ronald & Taylor, Mark P, 1990. "Exchange Rates, Policy Convergence and the European Monetary System," CEPR Discussion Papers 444, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Artus, P. & Avouyi-Dovi, S. & Bleuze, E. & Lecointe, F., 1991. "Transmission of U.S. monetary policy to Europe and asymmetry in the European monetary system," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 35(7), pages 1369-1384, October.
- Ball, Clifford A. & Torous, Walter N., 1983. "A Simplified Jump Process for Common Stock Returns," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 18(01), pages 53-65, March.
- Richard J Rogalski & Joseph D Vinso, 1977. "Price Level Variations as Predictors of Flexible Exchange Rates," Journal of International Business Studies, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 8(1), pages 71-82, March.
- Baillie, Richard T & Bollerslev, Tim, 1991.
"Intra-day and Inter-market Volatility in Foreign Exchange Rates,"
Review of Economic Studies,
Wiley Blackwell, vol. 58(3), pages 565-85, May.
- Baillie, R.T. & Bollerslev, T., 1989. "Intra Day And Inter Market Volatility In Foreign Exchange Rates," Papers 8811, Michigan State - Econometrics and Economic Theory.
- Charles Engel & Craig S. Hakkio, 1993. "Exchange rate regimes and volatility," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Q III, pages 43-58.
- repec:imf:imfocp:73 is not listed on IDEAS
- Nikiforos Laopodis, 2001. "Time-Varying Behavior and Asymmetry in EMS Exchange Rates," International Economic Journal, Korean International Economic Association, vol. 15(4), pages 81-94.
- Wyplosz, Charles, 1989. "Asymmetry in the EMS: Intentional or systemic?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 33(2-3), pages 310-320, March.
- Barry Eichengreen & Charles Wyplosz, 1993. "The Unstable EMS," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 24(1), pages 51-144.
- Engle, Robert F, 1982. "Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity with Estimates of the Variance of United Kingdom Inflation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 987-1007, July.
- Conrad, Christian & Weber, Enzo, 2013.
"Measuring Persistence in Volatility Spillovers,"
0543, University of Heidelberg, Department of Economics.
- Conrad, Christian & Weber, Enzo, 2013. "Measuring Persistence in Volatility Spillovers," University of Regensburg Working Papers in Business, Economics and Management Information Systems 473, University of Regensburg, Department of Economics.
- Yu Hsing, 2007. "Analysis of exchange rate fluctuations in Estonia: test of the interest parity condition and the open economy model," Applied Financial Economics Letters, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 3(1), pages 51-54, January.
- Michael J. Naylor & Lawrence C. Rose & Brendan J. Moyle, 2006.
"Topology of Foreign Exchange Markets using Hierarchical Structure Methods,"
physics/0608084, arXiv.org, revised Nov 2006.
- Naylor, Michael J. & Rose, Lawrence C. & Moyle, Brendan J., 2007. "Topology of foreign exchange markets using hierarchical structure methods," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 382(1), pages 199-208.
- Yu Hsing, 2005. "Analysis of exchange rate fluctuations for Slovakia: application of an extended Mundell--Fleming model," Applied Financial Economics Letters, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 1(5), pages 289-292, September.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Michael McNulty).
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.