Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login

The Advantage of Tying One's Hands: EMS Discipline and Central Bank Credibility

In: International Volatility and Economic Growth: The First Ten Years of The International Seminar on Macroeconomics

Contents:

Author Info

  • Francesco Giavazzi
  • Marco Pagano

Abstract

It is often argued that the EMS is an effective disciplinary device for inflation-prone countries in the EEC, since it forces policy-makers in these countries to pursue more restrictive monetary policies than they would otherwise. It is not clear, however, why these countries should submit themselves to such discipline. This paper argues that in order to answer this question appropriately, one must consider that EMS membership brings potentially large credibility gains to policy-makers in high-inflation countries: the reason is that not only it attaches an extra penalty to inflation (in terms of competitiveness losses), but makes the public aware that the policy-maker is faced with such penalty, and thus helps to overcome the inefficiency stemming from the public's mistrust for the authorities. We study the conditions under which these credibility gains are larger than the penalties that the policy-maker incurs in equilibrium. When policy-makers attach no value to inflationary finance, we find that they will always prefer EMS membership. When the policy-maker needs revenue from the inflation tax, however this conclusion is not always true. The opposite contention, that EMS membership is an inferior regime for any government that needs inflationary finance is also generally incorrect. The outcome of the welfare comparison depends (i) on the value placed by the policy-maker on seigniorage relative to the discounted output cost of inflation, and (ii) on the tightness of EMS discipline, as measured by the time interval between realignments and by the portion of lost competitiveness that the country is not allowed to recover at realignments.

(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: http://www.nber.org/chapters/c11684.pdf
Download Restriction: no

Bibliographic Info

as in new window

This chapter was published in:

  • Georges de Ménil & Robert J. Gordon, 1991. "International Volatility and Economic Growth: The First Ten Years of The International Seminar on Macroeconomics," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number de_m91-2.
    This item is provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Chapters with number 11684.

    Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberch:11684

    Contact details of provider:
    Postal: National Bureau of Economic Research, 1050 Massachusetts Avenue Cambridge, MA 02138, U.S.A.
    Phone: 617-868-3900
    Email:
    Web page: http://www.nber.org
    More information through EDIRC

    Related research

    Keywords:

    Other versions of this item:

    References

    No references listed on IDEAS
    You can help add them by filling out this form.

    Citations

    Blog mentions

    As found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:
    1. 1992: le "lievi imprecisioni" del Corsera
      by Alberto Bagnai in Goofynomics on 2012-05-21 13:41:00
    2. Mehr Europa: Du mußt es dreimal sagen
      by Alberto Bagnai in Goofynomics on 2012-06-03 22:07:00
    3. Repubblica e il vincolismo
      by Alberto Bagnai in Goofynomics on 2012-06-16 20:49:00
    4. Quelli che: “nel 1992 i tassi schizzarono alle stelle…”
      by Alberto Bagnai in Il Fatto Quotidiano on 2012-09-10 14:22:08
    5. Declino, produttività, flessibilità, euro: il mio primo maggio.
      by Alberto Bagnai in Goofynomics on 2013-05-01 20:31:00
    6. Le aporie del più Europa
      by Alberto Bagnai in Goofynomics on 2012-08-05 15:59:00
    7. Scene dalla vita di provincia: prefazione
      by Alberto Bagnai in Goofynomics on 2013-06-27 08:04:00
    8. Audizione informale alla Commissione Finanze: il mio discorso di fine anno
      by Alberto Bagnai in Goofynomics on 2013-12-31 19:29:00
    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as in new window

    Cited by:
    This item has more than 25 citations. To prevent cluttering this page, these citations are listed on a separate page.

    Lists

    This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nbr:nberch:11684. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ().

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

    If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.