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What Determines the Nominal Exchange Rate? Some Cross-Sectional Evidence

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  • Philip Lane

Abstract

This paper examines the determination of long-run movements in nominal exchange rates across countries. We model the long-run movement in the nominal exchange rate as depending on (i) the long-run inflation differential; and (ii) the long-run change in the real exchange rate. We argue that the former depends on country characteristics such as openness, country size, the level of outstanding government debt and central bank independence and the latter on the rate of economic growth and the terms of trade. Empirical support for both channels is provided, suggesting the fruitfulness for the analysis of exchange rates of studying cross-sectional cross-country data.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Trinity College Dublin, Department of Economics in its series Economics Technical Papers with number 9812.

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Date of creation: 1998
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Handle: RePEc:tcd:tcduet:9812

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Postal: Trinity College, Dublin 2
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Web page: http://www.tcd.ie/Economics/
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  1. Robert J. Barro, 2013. "Inflation and Economic Growth," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 14(1), pages 121-144, May.
  2. Michael Bruno & William Easterly, 1995. "Inflation Crises and Long-Run Growth," NBER Working Papers 5209, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Froot, Kenneth A. & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1995. "Perspectives on PPP and long-run real exchange rates," Handbook of International Economics, in: G. M. Grossman & K. Rogoff (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 32, pages 1647-1688 Elsevier.
  4. Bhagwati, Jagdish N, 1984. "Why Are Services Cheaper in the Poor Countries?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 94(374), pages 279-86, June.
  5. Charles Engel, 1998. "Long-Run PPP May Not Hold After All," Working Papers 0050, University of Washington, Department of Economics.
  6. Canzoneri, Matthew B & Cumby, Robert & Diba, Behzad, 1996. "Relative Labour Productivity and the Real Exchange Rate in the Long Run: Evidence for a Panel of OECD Countries," CEPR Discussion Papers 1464, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  7. Barro, Robert J & Gordon, David B, 1983. "A Positive Theory of Monetary Policy in a Natural Rate Model," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(4), pages 589-610, August.
  8. Mariano Tommasi, 1993. "The Consequences of Price Instability on Search Markets," UCLA Economics Working Papers 700, UCLA Department of Economics.
  9. Frankel, Jeffrey A. & Rose, Andrew K., 1995. "Empirical research on nominal exchange rates," Handbook of International Economics, in: G. M. Grossman & K. Rogoff (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 33, pages 1689-1729 Elsevier.
  10. Aaron Tornell & Andres Velasco, 1995. "Fixed versus Flexible Exchange Rates: Which Provides More Fiscal Discipline?," NBER Working Papers 5108, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  11. Thomas J. Sargent & Neil Wallace, 1981. "Some unpleasant monetarist arithmetic," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Fall.
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Cited by:
  1. Lane, Philip R., 1999. "The New Open Economy Macroeconomics: a Survey," CEPR Discussion Papers 2115, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  2. Honohan, Patrick & Lane, Philip R, 1999. "Pegging to the Dollar and the Euro," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 2(3), pages 379-410, November.

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