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There was monetary autonomy in Europe on the eve of EMU?. The German dominance hypothesis re-examined

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  • Oscar Bajo-Rubio
  • M. Dolores Montávez-Garcés

Abstract

In this paper we re-examine the German dominance hypothesis, as a way to assess whether the loss of monetary autonomy in Europe associated with EMU had been significant. We use Granger-causality tests between the interest rates of Germany and all the countries participating at any time in the European Monetary System, with the sample period running until December 1998. Our results would support a weak version of the hypothesis, with Germany playing a certain ³leadership² or special role in the EMS, although she would not had been strictly the ³dominant² player.

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Paper provided by FEDEA in its series Studies on the Spanish Economy with number 52.

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Handle: RePEc:fda:fdaeee:52

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  1. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Nikitas Pittis, 1995. "Interest rate linkages within the European Monetary System: an alternative interpretation," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 2(2), pages 45-47.
  2. Michele Fratianni & Juergen Hagen, 1990. "German dominance in the EMS," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 1(1), pages 67-87, February.
  3. Giavazzi, Francesco & Pagano, Marco, 1986. "The Advantages of Tying One's Hands: EMS Discipline and Central Bank Credibility," CEPR Discussion Papers 135, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  4. Henry, Jerome & Jens Weidmann, 1994. "Asymmetry in the EMS revisited: Evidence from the causality analysis of daily Eurorates," Discussion Paper Serie B 280, University of Bonn, Germany.
  5. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1991. "A simple estimator of cointegrating vectors in higher order integrated systems," Working Paper Series, Macroeconomic Issues 91-3, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
  6. Shin, Yongcheol, 1994. "A Residual-Based Test of the Null of Cointegration Against the Alternative of No Cointegration," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 10(01), pages 91-115, March.
  7. Mélitz, Jacques, 1988. "Monetary Discipline and Cooperation in the European Monetary System: A Synthesis," CEPR Discussion Papers 219, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  8. Phillips, Peter C B & Ouliaris, S, 1990. "Asymptotic Properties of Residual Based Tests for Cointegration," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 58(1), pages 165-93, January.
  9. Karfakis, Costas J & Moschos, Demetrios M, 1990. "Interest Rate Linkages within the European Monetary System: A Time Series Analysis," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 22(3), pages 389-94, August.
  10. Koedijk, Kees G. & Kool, Clemens J. M., 1992. "Dominant interest and inflation differentials within the EMS," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 36(4), pages 925-943, May.
  11. Engle, Robert F & Granger, Clive W J, 1987. "Co-integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 251-76, March.
  12. Phillips, P.C.B., 1986. "Testing for a Unit Root in Time Series Regression," Cahiers de recherche 8633, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
  13. Óscar Bajo Rubio & Simón Sosvilla Rivero & Fernando Fernández Rodríguez, 2000. "Asymmetry In The Ems: New Evidence Based On Non-Linear Forecasts," Documentos de Trabajo - Lan Gaiak Departamento de Economía - Universidad Pública de Navarra 0001, Departamento de Economía - Universidad Pública de Navarra.
  14. Edward H. Gardner & William R. M. Perraudin, 1993. "Asymmetry in the ERM: A Case Study of French and German Interest Rates Before and After German Unification," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 40(2), pages 427-450, June.
  15. Artis, Michael J & Zhang, Wenda, 1995. "International Business Cycles and the ERM: Is there a European Business Cycle?," CEPR Discussion Papers 1191, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  16. Hsiao, Cheng, 1981. "Autoregressive modelling and money-income causality detection," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 7(1), pages 85-106.
  17. Charles Wyplosz, 1997. "EMU: Why and How It Might Happen," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 11(4), pages 3-21, Fall.
  18. repec:cup:etheor:v:10:y:1994:i:1:p:95-115 is not listed on IDEAS
  19. Hassapis, Christis & Pittis, Nikitas & Prodromidis, Kyprianos, 1999. "Unit roots and Granger causality in the EMS interest rates: the German Dominance Hypothesis revisited," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 47-73, January.
  20. Peter C.B. Phillips & Bruce E. Hansen, 1988. "Statistical Inference in Instrumental Variables," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 869R, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University, revised Apr 1989.
  21. Granger, C W J, 1969. "Investigating Causal Relations by Econometric Models and Cross-Spectral Methods," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 37(3), pages 424-38, July.
  22. Phillips, Peter C B & Hansen, Bruce E, 1990. "Statistical Inference in Instrumental Variables Regression with I(1) Processes," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 57(1), pages 99-125, January.
  23. Cohen, Daniel & Wyplosz, Charles, 1989. "The European Monetary Union: An Agnostic Evaluation," CEPR Discussion Papers 306, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  24. Katsimbris, George M & Miller, Stephen M, 1993. "Interest Rate Linkages within the European Monetary System: Further Analysis," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 25(4), pages 771-79, November.
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Cited by:
  1. Sibbertsen, Philipp & Wegener, Christoph & Basse, Tobias, 2013. "Testing for a Break in the Persistence in Yield Spreads of EMU Government Bonds," Diskussionspapiere der Wirtschaftswissenschaftlichen Fakultät der Leibniz Universität Hannover dp-517, Leibniz Universität Hannover, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät.
  2. Bajo-Rubio, Oscar & Sosvilla-Rivero, Simon & Fernandez-Rodriguez, Fernando, 2001. "Asymmetry in the EMS: New evidence based on non-linear forecasts," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 45(3), pages 451-473, March.
  3. Forssbaeck, Jens & Oxelheim, Lars, 2005. "On the Link between Exchange-Rate Regimes and Monetary-Policy Autonomy: The European Experience," Working Paper Series 637, Research Institute of Industrial Economics.
  4. Maswana, Jean-Claude, 2006. "An empirical investigation around the finance-growth puzzle in China with a particular focus on causality and efficiency considerations," MPRA Paper 3946, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Apr 2006.

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