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Leader of the pack? German monetary dominance in Europe prior to EMU

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  • Reade, J. James
  • Volz, Ulrich

Abstract

In this paper, the monetary policy independence of European nations in the years before European Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) is investigated using cointegration techniques. Daily data is used to assess pairwise relationships between individual EMU nations and 'lead' nation Germany, to assess the hypothesis that Germany was the dominant European nation prior to EMU. By and large our econometric investigations support this hypothesis, and lead us to conclude that the only European nation to lose monetary policy independence in the light of monetary union was Germany. Our results have important policy implications. Given that the loss of monetary policy independence is generally viewed as the main cost of monetary unification, our findings suggest a reconsideration of the costs and benefits of monetary integration. A country can only lose what it has, and in Europe the countries that joined EMU -- spare Germany -- apparently did not have much to lose, at least not in terms of monetary independence. Instead, they actually gained monetary policy influence by getting a seat in the ECB's governing council which is responsible for setting interest policy in the euro area.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Economic Modelling.

Volume (Year): 28 (2011)
Issue (Month): 1-2 (January)
Pages: 239-250

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Handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:28:y:2011:i:1-2:p:239-250

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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/30411

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Keywords: Monetary policy independence European monetary integration Cointegrated VAR method;

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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Fratzscher, Marcel & Mehl, Arnaud, 2011. "China's dominance hypothesis and the emergence of a tri-polar global currency system," Working Paper Series 1392, European Central Bank.
  2. J. James Reade & Ulrich Volz, 2009. "Too Much to Lose, or More to Gain? Should Sweden Join the Euro?," Economics Series Working Papers 442, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
  3. Łukasz Goczek & Dagmara Mycielska, 2013. "Ready for euro? Empirical study of the actual monetary policy independence in Poland," Working Papers 2013-13, Faculty of Economic Sciences, University of Warsaw.
  4. Łukasz Goczek & Dagmara Mycielska, 2013. "Long-run interest rate convergence in Poland and the EMU," Working Papers 2013-21, Faculty of Economic Sciences, University of Warsaw.
  5. Volz, Ulrich & Reade, J. James, 2011. "Chinese Monetary Policy and the Dollar Peg," Annual Conference 2011 (Frankfurt, Main): The Order of the World Economy - Lessons from the Crisis 48740, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.

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