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The Trilemma in History: Tradeoffs among Exchange Rates, Monetary Policies, and Capital Mobility

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Author Info
Maurice Obstfeld
Jay C. Shambaugh
Alan M. Taylor

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Abstract

The exchange-rate regime is often seen as constrained by the monetary policy trilemma, which imposes a stark tradeoff among exchange stability, monetary independence, and capital market openness. Yet the trilemma has not gone without challenge. Some (e.g., Calvo and Reinhart 2001, 2002) argue that under the modern float there could be limited monetary autonomy. Others (e.g., Bordo and Flandreau 2003), that even under the classical gold standard domestic monetary autonomy was considerable. This paper studies the coherence of international interest rates over more than 130 years. The constraints implied by the trilemma are largely borne out by history.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 10396.

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Date of creation: Mar 2004
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:10396

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
F33 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions
F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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    Other versions:
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(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Gerardo della Paolera & Alan M. Taylor, 2003. "Gaucho Banking Redux," NBER Working Papers 9457, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  2. Mehl, Arnaud, 2006. "The yield curve as a predictor and emerging economies," BOFIT Discussion Papers 18/2006, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Christer Ljungwall & Steven Wang, 2004. "Why is capital flowing out of China?," Trade Working Papers 606, East Asian Bureau of Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
  4. Maurice Obstfeld & Jay C. Shambaugh & Alan M. Taylor, 2004. "Monetary Sovereignty, Exchange Rates, and Capital Controls: The Trilemma in the Interwar Period," International Finance 0407008, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  5. Joshua Aizenman & Reuven Glick, 2008. "Sterilization, Monetary Policy, and Global Financial Integration," NBER Working Papers 13902, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Meissner, C.M. & Oomes, N., 2006. "Why Do Countries Peg the Way They Peg? The Determinants of Anchor Currency Choice," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0643, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  7. W. Jos Jansen, 2003. "Inside the Impossible Triangle:Monetary Policy Autonomy in a Credible Target Zone," MEB Series (discontinued) 2003-13, Netherlands Central Bank, Monetary and Economic Policy Department. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  8. GRENADE, Kari & MOORE, Winston, 2008. "Co-Movements Between Foreign And Domestic Interest Rates In A Fixed Exchange Rate Regime: The Case Of The Eccu And The Us," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 8(1), pages 119-130. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Anella Munro, 2004. "What drives the New Zealand dollar?," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Bulletin, Reserve Bank of New Zealand, vol. 67, june. [Downloadable!]
  10. martawardaya, Berly & Salotti, Simone, 2006. "Is It Time to Get Radical? A Game Theoritic analysis of Asian Crisis and Capital Control," MPRA Paper 2073, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  11. James Laurenceson & Kam Ki Tang, . "China's capital account convertibility and financial stability," EAERG Discussion Paper Series 0505, School of Economics, University of Queensland, Australia. [Downloadable!]
  12. Joshua Aizenman, 2007. "Large Hoarding of International Reserves and the Emerging Global Economic Architecture," NBER Working Papers 13277, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Heather D. Gibson & Nicholas T. Tsaveas & Thomas Vlassopoulos, 2006. "Capital Flows, Capital Account Liberalisation and the Mediterranean Countries," Working Papers 33, Bank of Greece. [Downloadable!]
  14. Bluedorn, John & Bowdler, Christopher, . "Open Economy Codependence: U.S. Monetary Policy and Interest Rate Pass-through," Discussion Paper Series In Economics And Econometrics 0615, Economics Division, School of Social Sciences, University of Southampton. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  15. Gavin Cameron & Kang Yong Tan & Prasanna Gai, 2006. "Sovereign Risk in the Classical Gold Standard Era," Economics Series Working Papers 258, University of Oxford, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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  16. Thierry Warin, 2005. "Monetary Policy: From Theory to Practices," Middlebury College Working Paper Series 0508, Middlebury College, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  17. Romain Veyrune, 2007. "Fixed Exchange Rates and the Autonomy of Monetary Policy: The Franc Zone Case," IMF Working Papers 07/34, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
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