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Crises in the Global Economy from Tulips to Today: Contagion and Consequences

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Author Info
Larry Neal
Marc Weidenmier

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Abstract

This paper examines the historical record of the financial crises that have often accompanied surges of globalization in the past. The issue of contagion, the spread of financial turbulence from the crisis center to its trading partners, is confronted with historical and statistical evidence on the causes and consequences of well-known crises. In general, contagion seems often confused with prior interdependence, and crises are less widespread and shorter in duration than anecdotal evidence would indicate. Special attention is given to the gold standard period of 1880-1913, which we find useful to divide into the initial period of deflation, 1880-1896, and the following period of mild inflation, 1897-1913. We find evidence of changes in the pattern of 'contagion' from core to periphery countries between the two periods, but in both periods apparent contagions can more readily be interpreted as responses to common shocks. Lessons for the present period can only be tentative, but the similarities in learning experiences are striking.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 9147.

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Date of creation: Sep 2002
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:9147

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G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
N20 - Economic History - - Financial Markets and Institutions - - - General, International, or Comparative

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  1. Maurice Obstfeld & Jay C. Shambaugh & Alan M. Taylor, 2004. "Monetary Sovereignty, Exchange Rates, and Capital Controls: The Trilemma in the Interwar Period," International Finance 0407008, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Graciela L. Kaminsky & Carmen Reinhart & Carlos A. Vegh, 2003. "The Unholy Trinity of Financial Contagion," NBER Working Papers 10061, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  3. Maurice Obstfeld & Jay C.Shambaugh & Alan M.Taylor, 2003. "The Trilemma in History:Tradeoffs among Exchange Rates, Monetary Policies,and Capital Mobility," DNB Staff Reports (discontinued) 94, Netherlands Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Reinhart, Carmen & Kaminsky, Graciela & Vegh, Carlos, 2002. "Two Hundred Years of Contagion," MPRA Paper 13229, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  5. W. -X. Zhou & D. Sornette, 2002. "Evidence of a Worldwide Stock Market Log-Periodic Anti-Bubble Since Mid-2000," Quantitative Finance Papers cond-mat/0212010, arXiv.org, revised Aug 2003. [Downloadable!]
  6. Michael D. Bordo & Antu Panini Murshid, 2002. "Globalization and Changing Patterns in the International Transmission of Shocks in Financial Markets," NBER Working Papers 9019, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  7. Philip Arestis & Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Andrea Cipollini, 2003. "Testing for Financial Contagion between Developed and Emerging Markets during the 1997 East Asian Crisis," Economics Working Paper Archive 370, Levy Economics Institute, The. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  8. Boyer, Robert, 2004. "Japon : de la décennie perdue à un improbable New Deal," CEPREMAP Working Papers (Couverture Orange) 0404, CEPREMAP. [Downloadable!]
  9. Raj Aggarwal, 2004. "Persistent Puzzles in International Finance and Economics," The Economic and Social Review, Economic and Social Studies, vol. 35(3), pages 241-250. [Downloadable!]
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