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Stochastic Process Switching: Some Simple Solutions

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Kenneth A. Froot
Maurice Obstfeld

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Abstract

When changes in the economic policy regime occur stochastically, asset prices will reflect the possibility of such shifts. In this paper we apply techniques of regulated Brownian motion to obtain closed-form analytic price solutions when policy reaction functions are subject to prospective changes. We focus on the case in which the authorities promise to peg a currency's exchange rate once it reaches a predetermined future level. We also show how an open-ended commitment to exchange-rate targeting may lead to multiple equilibria.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 2998.

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Date of creation: Aug 1991
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:2998

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Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Obstfeld, Maurice & Stockman, Alan C., 1985. "Exchange-rate dynamics," Handbook of International Economics, in: R. W. Jones & P. B. Kenen (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 18, pages 917-977 Elsevier. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Paul R. Krugman, 1988. "Target Zones and Exchange Rate Dynamics," NBER Working Papers 2481, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. Klein, Michael W, 1990. "Playing with the Band: Dynamic Effects of Target Zones in an Open Economy," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 31(4), pages 757-72, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  1. Francisco Delgado & Bernard Dumas, 1991. "Target Zones Big and Small," NBER Working Papers 3601, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Dewachter, Hans & Veestraeten, Dirk, 2001. "Measuring Convergence Speed of Asset Prices toward a Pre-announced Target," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 11(6), pages 591-601, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. Maurice Obstfeld & Jay C. Shambaugh & Alan M. Taylor, 2004. "Monetary Sovereignty, Exchange Rates, and Capital Controls: The Trilemma in the Interwar Period," International Finance 0407008, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
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  4. Kenneth A. Froot & Maurice Obstfeld, 1992. "Intrinsic Bubbles: The Case of Stock Prices," NBER Working Papers 3091, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Staffan Ringbom, 2003. "Narrow Target Zones within Broad Zones: A Non-Speculative Exchange Rate Solution with Limited Resources," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 14(3), pages 319-341, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Mark Trede & Bernd Wilfling, 2007. "Estimating exchange rate dynamics with diffusion processes: an application to Greek EMU data," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 33(1), pages 23-39, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Jess Rodr?uez L?ez & Hugo Rodr?uez Mendiz?al, 2002. "On the Choice of an Exchange Rate Regime: Target Zones Revisited," UFAE and IAE Working Papers 518.02, Unitat de Fonaments de l'Anàlisi Econòmica (UAB) and Institut d'Anàlisi Econòmica (CSIC). [Downloadable!]
  8. Maurice Obstfeld & Jay Shambaugh & Alan Taylor, 2004. "The Trilemma in History: Tradeoffs among Exchange Rates, Monetary Policies, and Capital Mobility," International Finance 0407003, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
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  9. Lars E.O. Svensson, 1991. "Target Zones and Interest Rate Variability," NBER Working Papers 3218, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. Karen K. Lewis, 1995. "Stochastic Regime Switching and Stabilizing Policies within Regimes," NBER Working Papers 5289, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Anna Naszódi, 2008. "Are the exchange rates of EMU candidate countries anchored by their expected euro locking rates?," MNB Working Papers 2008/1, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (The Central Bank of Hungary). [Downloadable!]
  12. Jesús Rodríguez López & Hugo Rodríguez Mendizábal, 2006. "The optimal degree of exchange rate flexibility: A target zone approach," Working Papers 06.22, Universidad Pablo de Olavide, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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  13. Willem H. Buiter & Paolo A. Pesenti, 1990. "Rational Speculative Bubbles in an Exchange Rate Target Zone," NBER Working Papers 3467, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  14. Jesús Rodríguez López & Hugo Rodríguez Mendizábal, 2002. "On the Choice of an Exchange Regime: Target Zones Revisited," Economic Working Papers at Centro de Estudios Andaluces E2002/10, Centro de Estudios Andaluces. [Downloadable!]
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