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Do Interest Rates Follow Unit-Root Processes? Evidence from Cross-Maturity Treasury Bill Yields

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  • Wu, Yangru
  • Zhang, Hua

Abstract

It is widely reported in the literature that interest rates follow integrated processes. Many empirical studies have, in fact, taken this result as a maintained hypothesis. This article demonstrates that the failure to reject the hypothesis that interest rates contain a unit root may be due to the severe power of standard test procedures in small samples. We analyze a panel of cross-maturity Treasury-bill yield series by employing a panel-based test. This test exploits cross-maturity variations of the data to improve estimation efficiency and is more powerful than standard tests for unit roots. The critical values of the test statistics are computed by Monte Carlo simulations tailored to our samples. It is found that the null hypothesis that each yield series contains a unit root can be decisively rejected. Our findings cast some doubt on previous studies that rely on the nonstationarity assumption of interest rates. Copyright 1997 by Kluwer Academic Publishers

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Springer in its journal Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting.

Volume (Year): 8 (1997)
Issue (Month): 1 (January)
Pages: 69-81

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Handle: RePEc:kap:rqfnac:v:8:y:1997:i:1:p:69-81

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Web page: http://springerlink.metapress.com/link.asp?id=102990

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Cited by:
  1. Smoluk, H. J., 1999. "Domestic variance and international comovement bonds tests of interest rates," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 8(3), pages 247-267, March.
  2. Maurice Obstfeld & Jay Shambaugh & Alan Taylor, 2004. "The Trilemma in History: Tradeoffs among Exchange Rates, Monetary Policies, and Capital Mobility," International Finance 0407003, EconWPA.
  3. Martin B. Schmidt, 2004. "Exogeneity within the M2 Demand Function: Evidence from a Large Macroeconomic System," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 42(4), pages 634-646, October.
  4. J. Sebastián Becerra & Luis Ceballos & Felipe Córdova & Michael Pedersen, 2009. "Pass-through of Large Changes in Monetary Policy Rate – Evidence for Chile," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 522, Central Bank of Chile.
  5. Troeger, Vera, 2012. "Monetary Policy Flixibility in floating Exchange Rate Regimes: Currency Denomination and Import Shares," CAGE Online Working Paper Series 82, Competitive Advantage in the Global Economy (CAGE).
  6. Mario Cerrato & Hyunsok Kim & Ronald MacDonald, 2010. "Nominal interest rates and stationarity," Working Papers 2010_17, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow.
  7. Jumah, Adusei & Kunst, Robert M., 2002. "On Mean Reversion in Real Interest Rates: An Application of Threshold Cointegtation," Economics Series 109, Institute for Advanced Studies.
  8. Smoluk, H. J., 1999. "Excess long real rate volatility," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 9(2), pages 155-176, March.
  9. Nese Erbil & Shaun K. Roache, 2010. "How Commodity Price Curves and Inventories React to a Short-Run Scarcity Shock," IMF Working Papers 10/222, International Monetary Fund.
  10. repec:cge:warwcg:81 is not listed on IDEAS
  11. Matti Suominen & Petri Jylhä, 2009. "Arbitrage Capital and Currency Carry Trade Returns," 2009 Meeting Papers 84, Society for Economic Dynamics.

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