Do Interest Rates Follow Unit-Root Processes? Evidence from Cross-Maturity Treasury Bill Yields
AbstractIt is widely reported in the literature that interest rates follow integrated processes. Many empirical studies have, in fact, taken this result as a maintained hypothesis. This article demonstrates that the failure to reject the hypothesis that interest rates contain a unit root may be due to the severe power of standard test procedures in small samples. We analyze a panel of cross-maturity Treasury-bill yield series by employing a panel-based test. This test exploits cross-maturity variations of the data to improve estimation efficiency and is more powerful than standard tests for unit roots. The critical values of the test statistics are computed by Monte Carlo simulations tailored to our samples. It is found that the null hypothesis that each yield series contains a unit root can be decisively rejected. Our findings cast some doubt on previous studies that rely on the nonstationarity assumption of interest rates. Copyright 1997 by Kluwer Academic Publishers
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Springer in its journal Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting.
Volume (Year): 8 (1997)
Issue (Month): 1 (January)
Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://springerlink.metapress.com/link.asp?id=102990
You can help add them by filling out this form.
CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
- Smoluk, H. J., 1999. "Domestic variance and international comovement bonds tests of interest rates," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 8(3), pages 247-267, March.
- Maurice Obstfeld & Jay Shambaugh & Alan Taylor, 2004.
"The Trilemma in History: Tradeoffs among Exchange Rates, Monetary Policies, and Capital Mobility,"
- Maurice Obstfeld & Jay C. Shambaugh & Alan M. Taylor, 2005. "The Trilemma in History: Tradeoffs Among Exchange Rates, Monetary Policies, and Capital Mobility," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 87(3), pages 423-438, August.
- Obstfeld, Maurice & Shambaugh, Jay C. & Taylor, Alan M., 2004. "The Trilemma in History: Tradeoffs among Exchange Rates, Monetary Policies, and Capital Mobility," Center for International and Development Economics Research, Working Paper Series qt4rq9v2rb, Center for International and Development Economics Research, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley.
- Maurice Obstfeld & Jay C.Shambaugh & Alan M.Taylor, 2003. "The Trilemma in History:Tradeoffs among Exchange Rates, Monetary Policies,and Capital Mobility," DNB Staff Reports (discontinued) 94, Netherlands Central Bank.
- Obstfeld, Maurice & Shambaugh, Jay C & Taylor, Alan M, 2004. "The Trilemma in History: Trade-offs Among Exchange Rates, Monetary Policies and Capital Mobility," CEPR Discussion Papers 4352, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Maurice Obstfeld & Jay C. Shambaugh & Alan M. Taylor, 2004. "The Trilemma in History: Tradeoffs among Exchange Rates, Monetary Policies, and Capital Mobility," NBER Working Papers 10396, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Martin B. Schmidt, 2004. "Exogeneity within the M2 Demand Function: Evidence from a Large Macroeconomic System," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 42(4), pages 634-646, October.
- J. Sebastián Becerra & Luis Ceballos & Felipe Córdova & Michael Pedersen, 2009.
"Pass-through of Large Changes in Monetary Policy Rate – Evidence for Chile,"
Working Papers Central Bank of Chile
522, Central Bank of Chile.
- Juan Sebastián Becerra C. & Luis Ceballos S. & Felipe Córdova F. & Michael Pedersen, 2010. "Market Interest Rate Dynamics in Times of Financial Turmoil," Journal Economía Chilena (The Chilean Economy), Central Bank of Chile, vol. 13(1), pages 5-22, April.
- Troeger, Vera, 2012. "Monetary Policy Flixibility in floating Exchange Rate Regimes: Currency Denomination and Import Shares," CAGE Online Working Paper Series 82, Competitive Advantage in the Global Economy (CAGE).
- Mario Cerrato & Hyunsok Kim & Ronald MacDonald, 2010.
"Nominal interest rates and stationarity,"
2010_17, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow.
- Jumah, Adusei & Kunst, Robert M., 2002. "On Mean Reversion in Real Interest Rates: An Application of Threshold Cointegtation," Economics Series 109, Institute for Advanced Studies.
- Smoluk, H. J., 1999. "Excess long real rate volatility," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 9(2), pages 155-176, March.
- Nese Erbil & Shaun K. Roache, 2010. "How Commodity Price Curves and Inventories React to a Short-Run Scarcity Shock," IMF Working Papers 10/222, International Monetary Fund.
- repec:cge:warwcg:81 is not listed on IDEAS
- Matti Suominen & Petri Jylhä, 2009. "Arbitrage Capital and Currency Carry Trade Returns," 2009 Meeting Papers 84, Society for Economic Dynamics.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Guenther Eichhorn) or (Christopher F. Baum).
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.