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Single Equation Models, Co-Integration and the Expectations Hypothesis of the Term Structure of Interest Rates

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Fabrizio Casalin ()
Abstract

The purpose of this paper is twofold. First, by focusing on Single Equation and VECM techniques commonly employed to test for the Expectations Hypothesis of the Term Structure of interest rates (EHTS), it sheds light on the conditions - in terms of the different classes of stochastic processes of the spot and forward rates - that must hold for the EHTS to be valid. In doing so, the existing linkage between the two strands of literature is highlighted. Second, by using kalman filter and maximum likelihood, estimates of a permanent-transitory components model for spot and forward interest rates are carried out. The simple parametric model helps discern the relative contributions of both departures from rational expectation and time varying term premium to the invalidation of the EHTS. Departures from rational expectations turn out to have negligible impact on the rejection of the EHTS. Estimates of the time varying term premia for the short-end of the term structure spectrum are persistent and reasonable in magnitude, and exhibit sign fluctuations.

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Paper provided by Department of Economics, University of Leicester in its series Discussion Papers in Economics with number 07/06.

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Date of creation: Jun 2007
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Handle: RePEc:lec:leecon:07/6

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  5. Cox, John C & Ingersoll, Jonathan E, Jr & Ross, Stephen A, 1985. "A Theory of the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 53(2), pages 385-407, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Campbell, John Y & Shiller, Robert J, 1988. " Stock Prices, Earnings, and Expected Dividends," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 43(3), pages 661-76, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Fama, Eugene F., 1984. "The information in the term structure," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 13(4), pages 509-528, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Brenner, Robin J. & Kroner, Kenneth F., 1995. "Arbitrage, Cointegration, and Testing the Unbiasedness Hypothesis in Financial Markets," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 30(01), pages 23-42, March. [Downloadable!]
  9. H. M. Anderson & C. W.J. Granger & A. D. Hall, 1990. "Treasury Bill Yield Curves and Cointegration," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series 90-24, Department of Economics, UC San Diego.
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  10. Walid Hejazi & Huiwen Lai & Xian Yang, 2000. "The expectations hypothesis, term premia, and the Canadian term structure of interest rates," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 33(1), pages 133-148, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Engle, Robert F & Lilien, David M & Robins, Russell P, 1987. "Estimating Time Varying Risk Premia in the Term Structure: The Arch-M Model," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 391-407, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Clark, Peter K., 1989. "Trend reversion in real output and unemployment," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 15-32, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Toni Gravelle & James C. Morley, 2005. "A Kalman filter approach to characterizing the Canadian term structure of interest rates," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 15(10), pages 691-705, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Hai, Weike & Mark, Nelson C & Wu, Yangru, 1997. "Understanding Spot and Forward Exchange Rate Regressions," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 12(6), pages 715-34, Nov.-Dec.. [Downloadable!]
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