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Trilemma stability and international macroeconomic archetypes

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Author Info

  • Popper, Helen
  • Mandilaras, Alex
  • Bird, Graham

Abstract

This paper uses the simple geometry of the classic, open-economy trilemma to introduce a new gauge of the stability of international macroeconomic arrangements. The new stability gauge reflects the simultaneity of a country's choices of exchange rate fixity, financial openness, and monetary sovereignty. So, the new gauge is bounded and correspondingly non-Gaussian. We use the new stability gauge in nonlinear panel estimates to examine the post-Bretton Woods period, and we find that trilemma policy stability is linked to official holdings of foreign exchange reserves in low income countries. We also find that the combination of fixed exchange rates and financial market openness is the most stable arrangement within the trilemma; and middle-income countries have less stable trilemma arrangements than either low or high-income countries. The paper also characterizes international macroeconomic arrangements in terms of their semblance to definitive policy archetypes; and, it uses the trilemma constraint to provide a new gauge of monetary sovereignty.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal European Economic Review.

Volume (Year): 64 (2013)
Issue (Month): C ()
Pages: 181-193

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Handle: RePEc:eee:eecrev:v:64:y:2013:i:c:p:181-193

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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/eer

Related research

Keywords: Trilemma; Foreign Exchange Rate Regimes; International Reserves; Financial openness; Monetary sovereignty;

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References

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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Joshua Aizenman & Hiro Ito, 2012. "Trilemma Policy Convergence Patterns and Output Volatility," Working Papers 112012, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
  2. Joshua Aizenman & Hiro Ito, 2013. "Living with the Trilemma Constraint: Relative Trilemma Policy Divergence, Crises, and Output Losses for Developing Countries," NBER Working Papers 19448, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

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