Ready for euro? Empirical study of the actual monetary policy independence in Poland
AbstractThe aim of the article is to examine the actual degree of Polish monetary policy independence in the context of joining the Eurozone. It is frequently argued that the main cost of the participation in the EMU, or in any other common currency area, is the loss of monetary policy independence. In contrast, the paper raises the question of the actual possibility of such a policy in a small open economy operating within highly liberalized capital flows and highly integrated financial markets like Poland. Confirmation of the hypothesis concerning incomplete actual monetary independence is essential to the analysis of costs of the Polish accession to the EMU. The main hypothesis of the article is verified using a Vector Error-Correction Mechanism model and several parametric hypotheses concerning the speed and asymmetry of adjustment.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Faculty of Economic Sciences, University of Warsaw in its series Working Papers with number 2013-13.
Length: 32 pages
Date of creation: 2013
Date of revision:
empirical analysis; Eurozone; monetary policy independence; monetary union;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
- E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
- E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
- F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
- F42 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Policy Coordination and Transmission
- C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2013-06-16 (All new papers)
- NEP-CBA-2013-06-16 (Central Banking)
- NEP-EEC-2013-06-16 (European Economics)
- NEP-MAC-2013-06-16 (Macroeconomics)
- NEP-MON-2013-06-16 (Monetary Economics)
- NEP-TRA-2013-06-16 (Transition Economics)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Kwiatkowski, D. & Phillips, P.C.B. & Schmidt, P., 1990.
"Testing the Null Hypothesis of Stationarity Against the Alternative of Unit Root : How Sure are we that Economic Time Series have a Unit Root?,"
8905, Michigan State - Econometrics and Economic Theory.
- Kwiatkowski, Denis & Phillips, Peter C. B. & Schmidt, Peter & Shin, Yongcheol, 1992. "Testing the null hypothesis of stationarity against the alternative of a unit root : How sure are we that economic time series have a unit root?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 54(1-3), pages 159-178.
- Denis Kwiatkowski & Peter C.B. Phillips & Peter Schmidt, 1991. "Testing the Null Hypothesis of Stationarity Against the Alternative of a Unit Root: How Sure Are We That Economic Time Series Have a Unit Root?," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 979, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
- Jeffrey A. Frankel & Sergio L. Schmukler & Luis Serven, 2002.
"Global Transmission of Interest Rates: Monetary Independence and Currency Regime,"
NBER Working Papers
8828, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Frankel, Jeffrey & Schmukler, Sergio L. & Serven, Luis, 2004. "Global transmission of interest rates: monetary independence and currency regime," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 23(5), pages 701-733, September.
- Reade, J. James & Volz, Ulrich, 2011.
"Leader of the pack? German monetary dominance in Europe prior to EMU,"
Elsevier, vol. 28(1-2), pages 239-250, January.
- Reade, J. James & Volz, Ulrich, 2011. "Leader of the pack? German monetary dominance in Europe prior to EMU," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 239-250.
- J. James Reade & Ulrich Volz, 2009. "Leader of the Pack? German Monetary Dominance in Europe Prior to EMU," Economics Series Working Papers 419, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
- Giuseppe Cavaliere & Anders Rahbek & A.M.Robert Taylor, 2009.
"Co-integration Rank Testing under Conditional Heteroskedasticity,"
CREATES Research Papers
2009-22, School of Economics and Management, University of Aarhus.
- Cavaliere, Giuseppe & Rahbek, Anders & Taylor, A.M. Robert, 2010. "Cointegration Rank Testing Under Conditional Heteroskedasticity," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 26(06), pages 1719-1760, December.
- di Giovanni, Julian & Shambaugh, Jay C., 2008.
"The impact of foreign interest rates on the economy: The role of the exchange rate regime,"
Journal of International Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 74(2), pages 341-361, March.
- Julian di Giovanni & Jay C. Shambaugh, 2007. "The Impact of Foreign Interest Rates on the Economy: The Role of the Exchange Rate Regime," NBER Working Papers 13467, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Julian di Giovanni & Jay C. Shambaugh, 2006. "The Impact of Foreign Interest Rates on the Economy: The Role of the Exchange Rate Regime," IMF Working Papers 06/37, International Monetary Fund.
- Jay C. Shambaugh & Julian di Giovanni, 2006. "The Impact of Foreign Interest Rates on the Economy: The Role of the Exchange Rate Regime," The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series iiisdp116, IIIS.
- Pagan, Adrian, 1996. "The econometrics of financial markets," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 3(1), pages 15-102, May.
- Herbert S. Buscher & Hubert Gabrisch, 2011. "What Might Central Banks Lose or Gain in Case of Euro Adoption – A GARCH-Analysis of Money Market Rates for Sweden, Denmark and the UK," IWH Discussion Papers 9, Halle Institute for Economic Research.
- Benoit Perron & Hyungsik Roger Moon, 2007. "An empirical analysis of nonstationarity in a panel of interest rates with factors," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(2), pages 383-400.
- J. James Reade & Ulrich Volz, 2009.
"Too Much to Lose, or More to Gain? Should Sweden Join the Euro?,"
Economics Series Working Papers
442, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
- J James Reade & Ulrich Volz, 2010. "Too Much to Lose, or More to Gain? Should Sweden Join the Euro?," Discussion Papers 10-13, Department of Economics, University of Birmingham.
- Eijffinger, S.C.W., 2008.
"How much inevitable US-Euro area interdependence is there in monetary policy?,"
Open Access publications from Tilburg University
urn:nbn:nl:ui:12-3161071, Tilburg University.
- Sylvester Eijffinger, 2008. "How much inevitable US-Euro Area interdependence is there in monetary policy?," Intereconomics: Review of European Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 43(6), pages 341-348, November.
- Marcin Kolasa, 2008.
"Structural heterogeneity or asymmetric shocks? Poland and the euro area through the lens of a two-country DSGE model,"
National Bank of Poland Working Papers
49, National Bank of Poland, Economic Institute.
- Kolasa, Marcin, 2009. "Structural heterogeneity or asymmetric shocks? Poland and the euro area through the lens of a two-country DSGE model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 26(6), pages 1245-1269, November.
- Kolasa, Marcin, 2008. "Structural heterogeneity or asymmetric shocks? Poland and the euro area through the lens of a two-country DSGE model," MPRA Paper 8750, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Thomas Windberger & Jesus Crespo Cuaresma & Janette Walde, 2012. "Dirty floating and monetary independence in Central and Eastern Europe - The role of structural breaks," Working Papers 2012-21, Faculty of Economics and Statistics, University of Innsbruck.
- Crespo Cuaresma, Jesus & Wojcik, Cezary, 2006. "Measuring monetary independence: Evidence from a group of new EU member countries," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 24-43, March.
- Łukasz Goczek & Dagmara Mycielska, 2013. "Long-run interest rate convergence in Poland and the EMU," Working Papers 2013-21, Faculty of Economic Sciences, University of Warsaw.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Marcin Bąba).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.