Dirty floating and monetary independence in Central and Eastern Europe - The role of structural breaks
AbstractObtaining reliable estimates of the volatility of interest rates and exchange rates is a necessary condition to evaluate issues related to monetary independence and fear of floating. In this paper we use methods which explicitly account for structural breaks in the volatility dynamics in order to assess monetary independence in the Czech Republic, Hungary and Poland. Our results indicate that the explicit modelling of structural breaks in volatility estimates can lead to striking differences concerning the evidence of monetary independence in Central and Eastern Europe. The results based on volatility estimates which account for regime change tend to indicate that the Czech Republic, Hungary and Poland have had a significant degree of monetary independence in the last decade.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Faculty of Economics and Statistics, University of Innsbruck in its series Working Papers with number 2012-21.
Date of creation: Sep 2012
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More information through EDIRC
Fear of floating; monetary independence; structural break; change-point model;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
- C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models &bull Diffusion Processes
- C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2012-10-06 (All new papers)
- NEP-CBA-2012-10-06 (Central Banking)
- NEP-EEC-2012-10-06 (European Economics)
- NEP-MON-2012-10-06 (Monetary Economics)
- NEP-TRA-2012-10-06 (Transition Economics)
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