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Testing, monitoring, and dating structural changes in exchange rate regimes

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  • Zeileis, Achim
  • Shah, Ajay
  • Patnaik, Ila

Abstract

Linear regression models for de facto exchange rate regime classification are complemented by inferential techniques for evaluating the stability of the regimes. To simultaneously assess parameter instabilities in the regression coefficients and the error variance an (approximately) normal regression model is adopted and a unified toolbox for testing, monitoring, and dating structural changes is provided for general (quasi-)likelihood-based regression models. Subsequently, the toolbox is employed for investigating the Chinese exchange rate regime after China gave up on a fixed exchange rate to the US dollar in 2005 and for tracking the evolution of the Indian exchange rate regime from 1993 until 2008.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Computational Statistics & Data Analysis.

Volume (Year): 54 (2010)
Issue (Month): 6 (June)
Pages: 1696-1706

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Handle: RePEc:eee:csdana:v:54:y:2010:i:6:p:1696-1706

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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/csda

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Keywords: Parameter instability Foreign exchange rates CNY INR;

References

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  1. Eduardo Levy-Yeyati & Federico Sturzenegger, 2003. "To Float or to Fix: Evidence on the Impact of Exchange Rate Regimes on Growth," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(4), pages 1173-1193, September.
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  6. Zeileis, Achim, 2006. "Implementing a class of structural change tests: An econometric computing approach," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 50(11), pages 2987-3008, July.
  7. Zeileis, Achim & Leisch, Friedrich & Kleiber, Christian & Hornik, Kurt, 2002. "Monitoring structural change in dynamic econometric models," Technical Reports 2002,07, Technische Universität Dortmund, Sonderforschungsbereich 475: Komplexitätsreduktion in multivariaten Datenstrukturen.
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  10. Pierre Perron & Jing Zhou, 2008. "Testing Jointly for Structural Changes in the Error Variance and Coefficients of a Linear Regression Model," Boston University - Department of Economics - Working Papers Series wp2008-011, Boston University - Department of Economics.
  11. Achim Zeileis, 2005. "A Unified Approach to Structural Change Tests Based on ML Scores, F Statistics, and OLS Residuals," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 24(4), pages 445-466.
  12. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2002. "The Modern History of Exchange Rate Arrangements: A Reinterpretation," NBER Working Papers 8963, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  13. Donald W.K. Andrews, 1990. "Tests for Parameter Instability and Structural Change with Unknown Change Point," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 943, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  14. Hansen, Bruce E., 1992. "Testing for parameter instability in linear models," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 14(4), pages 517-533, August.
  15. Zeileis, Achim & Kleiber, Christian & Krämer, Walter & Hornik, Kurt, 2002. "Testing and dating of structural changes in practice," Technical Reports 2002,39, Technische Universität Dortmund, Sonderforschungsbereich 475: Komplexitätsreduktion in multivariaten Datenstrukturen.
  16. Jushan Bai & Pierre Perron, 2003. "Computation and analysis of multiple structural change models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 18(1), pages 1-22.
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