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The difficulties of the Chinese and Indian exchange rate regimes

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  • Ila Patnaik
  • Ajay Shah

Abstract

China and India have both sought control over the exchange rate in order to maintain export competitiveness, manage current account balance, and pursue independent monetary policy. In this paper, we examine structural change in the Chinese and Indian de facto exchange rate regimes, focusing on the period from 1998 to 2007. With increasing capital account openness, exchange rate inflexibility has been associated with significant monetary policy distortions. In both countries, the short-term rate expressed in real terms dropped, and achieved very low values, in the unprecedented business cycle expansion of the early 2000s. In the Indian case, difficulties of sterilisation led to a modification of the exchange rate regime, moving towards greater flexibility. In China, in contrast, the exchange rate regime did not change.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Cattaneo University (LIUC) in its journal The European Journal of Comparative Economics.

Volume (Year): 6 (2009)
Issue (Month): 1 (June)
Pages: 157-173

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Handle: RePEc:liu:liucej:v:6:y:2009:i:1:p:157-173

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Keywords: Exchange rate regime; sterilised intervention; monetary policy; India; China;

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References

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  1. Prasad, Eswar, 2007. "Is the Chinese Growth Miracle Built to Last?," IZA Discussion Papers 2995, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
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  4. Eduardo Levy-Yeyati & Federico Sturzenegger, 2003. "To Float or to Fix: Evidence on the Impact of Exchange Rate Regimes on Growth," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(4), pages 1173-1193, September.
  5. Arvind Subramanian & Raghuram Rajan & Ioannis Tokatlidis & Kalpana Kochhar & Utsav Kumar, 2006. "India's Pattern of Development: What Happened, What Follows?," IMF Working Papers 06/22, International Monetary Fund.
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  7. Ajay Shah & Ila Patnaik & Rudrani Bhattacharya, 2008. "Early Warnings of Inflation in India," Working Papers id:1682, eSocialSciences.
  8. Zeileis, Achim & Kleiber, Christian & Kramer, Walter & Hornik, Kurt, 2003. "Testing and dating of structural changes in practice," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 44(1-2), pages 109-123, October.
  9. Reinhart, Carmen & Rogoff, Kenneth, 2004. "The modern history of exchange rate arrangements: A reinterpretation," MPRA Paper 14070, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  10. Jushan Bai & Pierre Perron, 2003. "Computation and analysis of multiple structural change models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 18(1), pages 1-22.
  11. Nouriel Roubini, 2007. "Why China Should Abandon Its Dollar Peg," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 10(1), pages 71-89, 03.
  12. Zeileis, Achim & Shah, Ajay & Patnaik, Ila, 2010. "Testing, monitoring, and dating structural changes in exchange rate regimes," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 54(6), pages 1696-1706, June.
  13. Ronald McKinnon & Gunther Schnabl, 2009. "China's financial conundrum and global imbalances," BIS Working Papers 277, Bank for International Settlements.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Enrico Marelli & Marcello Signorelli, 2011. "China and India: Openness, Trade and Effects on Economic Growth," European Journal of Comparative Economics, Cattaneo University (LIUC), vol. 8(1), pages 129-154, June.
  2. Heshmati, Almas & Kumbhakar, Subal C., 2010. "Technical Change and Total Factor Productivity Growth: The Case of Chinese Provinces," IZA Discussion Papers 4784, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  3. Patnaik, Ila & Shah, Ajay, 2010. "Asia confronts the impossible trinity," Working Papers 10/64, National Institute of Public Finance and Policy.
  4. Shirai, Sayuri, 2009. "世界経済危機とグローバル・マネーの変動 ―国際経済秩序へのインプリケーションー
    [Global Economic Crisis and Movements of Cross-Border Capital Flows ―Implicatio    ," MPRA Paper 18619, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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