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Non-renewable Resource Prices: Structural Breaks and Long Term Trends

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Author Info
Sharma, Abhijit
Balcombe, Kelvin
Fraser, Iain

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Abstract

In this paper we examine the time series properties of nine non-renewable resources. In particular we are concerned with understanding the relationship between the number of structural breaks in the data and the nature of the resource price path, i.e. is it stationary or a random walk. To undertake our analysis we employ a number of relevant econometric methods including Bai and Perron's (1998) multiple structural break dating method. Our results indicate that these series are in many cases stationary and subject to a number of structural breaks. These results indicate that a deterministic model of resources prices may well be appropriate.

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File URL: http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/16948/
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Publisher Info
Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 16948.

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Date of creation: May 2009
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Publication status: Published in Economics Bulletin 2.29(2009): pp. 821-835
Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:16948

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Related research
Keywords: structural change; non-renewable resources; breaks; resource depletion;

Find related papers by JEL classification:
Q31 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Nonrenewable Resources and Conservation - - - Demand and Supply
C12 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: General - - - Hypothesis Testing

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Andrews, Donald W K & Ploberger, Werner, 1994. "Optimal Tests When a Nuisance Parameter Is Present Only under the Alternative," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 62(6), pages 1383-1414, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Bai, Jushan, 1997. "Estimating Multiple Breaks One at a Time," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 13(03), pages 315-352, June. [Downloadable!]
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  3. Ahrens, W. Ashley & Sharma, Vijaya R., 1997. "Trends in Natural Resource Commodity Prices: Deterministic or Stochastic?," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 59-74, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Andrews, Donald W K, 1993. "Tests for Parameter Instability and Structural Change with Unknown Change Point," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(4), pages 821-56, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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This page was last updated on 2009-11-28.


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