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A test of the Hotelling rule using old-growth timber data

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Author Info

  • John Livernois
  • Henry Thille
  • Xianqiang Zhang

Abstract

The paper tests Hotelling's prediction that scarcity rent for a non-renewable resource will rise at the rate of discount in a market equilibrium. We perform the test using data for old-growth timber, a resource that is effectively non-renewable. In contrast to previous studies, for this resource a measure of scarcity rent is directly observable in the form of stumpage price bids in timber auctions. We construct a model that allows for replanting and captures the institutional framework of the western U.S. timber market. The modified Hotelling rule that we derive is not rejected in several of our specifications.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Canadian Economics Association in its journal Canadian Journal of Economics.

Volume (Year): 39 (2006)
Issue (Month): 1 (February)
Pages: 163-186

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Handle: RePEc:cje:issued:v:39:y:2006:i:1:p:163-186

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References

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  1. Brian C. Murray & David N. Wear, 1998. "Federal Timber Restrictions and Interregional Arbitrage in U.S. Lumber," Land Economics, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 74(1), pages 76-91.
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  6. Newey, Whitney & West, Kenneth, 2014. "A simple, positive semi-definite, heteroscedasticity and autocorrelation consistent covariance matrix," Applied Econometrics, Publishing House "SINERGIA PRESS", vol. 33(1), pages 125-132.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Ian Keay, 2010. "The Impact of Commodity Price Volatility on Resource Intensive Economies," Working Papers 1274, Queen's University, Department of Economics.
  2. Caputo, Michael R., 2011. "A nearly complete test of a capital accumulating, vertically integrated, nonrenewable resource extracting theory of a competitive firm," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 725-744, September.
  3. Sharma, Abhijit & Balcombe, Kelvin & Fraser, Iain, 2009. "Non-renewable Resource Prices: Structural Breaks and Long Term Trends," MPRA Paper 16948, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  4. Markus Ludwig, . "The Visible Hand: National Oil Companies, Oil Supply and the Ermergence of the Hotelling Rent," Working papers 2012/11, Faculty of Business and Economics - University of Basel.
  5. Margaret E. Slade & Henry Thille, 2009. "Whither Hotelling: Tests of the Theory of Exhaustible Resources," Annual Review of Resource Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 1(1), pages 239-259, 09.
  6. Gérard Gaudet, 2007. "Natural resource economics under the rule of Hotelling," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 40(4), pages 1033-1059, November.
  7. Ian Keay, 2007. "Resource Rents and their Impact on Institutional and Economic Development," Working Papers 1143, Queen's University, Department of Economics.
  8. Lisa Leinert, 2012. "Does the Oil Price Adjust Optimally to Oil Field Discoveries?," CER-ETH Economics working paper series 12/169, CER-ETH - Center of Economic Research (CER-ETH) at ETH Zurich.

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