IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/dyncon/v35y2011i6p891-908.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Exploration and development of U.S. oil and gas fields, 1955-2002

Author

Listed:
  • Boyce, John R.
  • Nøstbakken, Linda

Abstract

We study the exploration and development of oil and gas fields in the U.S. over the period 1955-2002. We make four contributions to explain the economic evolution of the oil and gas industry during this period. First, we derive a testable model of the dynamics of competitive oil and gas field exploration and development. Second, we show how to empirically distinguish Hotelling scarcity effects from effects due to technological change. Third, we test these hypotheses using statewide panel data of exploration and development drilling. We find that the time paths of exploration, development and total wells drilled are dominated by Hotelling scarcity effects. Finally, we offer an explanation for why fixed costs from exploration can make the contracting equilibrium in the mineral rights market efficient.

Suggested Citation

  • Boyce, John R. & Nøstbakken, Linda, 2011. "Exploration and development of U.S. oil and gas fields, 1955-2002," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 35(6), pages 891-908, June.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:dyncon:v:35:y:2011:i:6:p:891-908
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0165-1889(10)00281-2
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. E. Anthony Copp, 1974. "Technical Change and Petroleum Drilling Costs," Land Economics, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 50(2), pages 120-126.
    2. Smith, James L, 1987. "The Common Pool, Bargaining, and the Rule of Capture," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 25(4), pages 631-644, October.
    3. Wiggins, Steven N & Libecap, Gary D, 1985. "Oil Field Unitization: Contractual Failure in the Presence of Imperfect Information," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 75(3), pages 368-385, June.
    4. Paul W. MacAvoy & Robert S. Pindyck, 1973. "Alternative Regulatory Policies for Dealing with the Natural Gas Shortage," Bell Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 4(2), pages 454-498, Autumn.
    5. Arrow, Kenneth J. & Chang, Sheldon, 1982. "Optimal pricing, use, and exploration of uncertain natural resource stocks," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 9(1), pages 1-10, March.
    6. Slade, Margaret E., 1982. "Trends in natural-resource commodity prices: An analysis of the time domain," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 9(2), pages 122-137, June.
    7. Margaret E. Slade & Henry Thille, 1997. "Hotelling Confronts CAPM: A Test of the Theory of Exhaustible Resources," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 30(3), pages 685-708, August.
    8. Halvorsen, Robert & Smith, Tim R, 1984. "On Measuring Natural Resource Scarcity," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 92(5), pages 954-964, October.
    9. Robert T. Deacon & Henning Bohn, 2000. "Ownership Risk, Investment, and the Use of Natural Resources," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(3), pages 526-549, June.
    10. Chermak Janie M. & Patrick Robert H., 1995. "A Well-Based Cost Function and the Economics of Exhaustible Resources: The Case of Natural Gas," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 28(2), pages 174-189, March.
    11. Libecap, Gary D & Smith, James L, 2002. "The Economic Evolution of Petroleum Property Rights in the United States," The Journal of Legal Studies, University of Chicago Press, vol. 31(2), pages 589-608, June.
    12. Libecap, Gary D & Smith, James L, 1999. "The Self-Enforcing Provisions of Oil and Gas Unit Operating Agreements: Theory and Evidence," The Journal of Law, Economics, and Organization, Oxford University Press, vol. 15(2), pages 526-548, July.
    13. Kenneth S. Corts, 2008. "Stacking the Deck: Idling and Reactivation of Capacity in Offshore Drilling," Journal of Economics & Management Strategy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 17(2), pages 271-294, June.
    14. Hendricks, Kenneth & Porter, Robert H, 1988. "An Empirical Study of an Auction with Asymmetric Information," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 78(5), pages 865-883, December.
    15. Chermak, Janie M. & Patrick, Robert H., 2001. "A Microeconometric Test of the Theory of Exhaustible Resources," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 42(1), pages 82-103, July.
    16. Lasheng Yuan, 2002. "Divide and conquer: multiple leasing in common pool oil fields," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 35(1), pages 36-51, February.
    17. Miller, Merton H & Upton, Charles W, 1985. "A Test of the Hotelling Valuation Principle," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 93(1), pages 1-25, February.
    18. John T. Cuddington & Diana L. Moss, 2001. "Technological Change, Depletion, and the U.S. Petroleum Industry," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(4), pages 1135-1148, September.
    19. Chermak, Janie M. & Patrick, Robert H., 2002. "Comparing tests of the theory of exhaustible resources," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(4), pages 301-325, November.
    20. Libecap, Gary D & Wiggins, Steven N, 1984. "Contractual Responses to the Common Pool: Prorationing of Crude Oil Production," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 74(1), pages 87-98, March.
    21. Lasheng Yuan, 2002. "Divide and conquer: multiple leasing in common pool oil fields," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 35(1), pages 36-51, February.
    22. Harold Hotelling, 1931. "The Economics of Exhaustible Resources," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 39(2), pages 137-137.
    23. Richard B. Norgaard & Gwo Jiun Leu, 1986. "Petroleum Accessibility and Drilling Technology: An Analysis of U.S. Development Costs from 1959 to 1978," Land Economics, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 62(1), pages 14-25.
    24. Libecap, Gary D & Wiggins, Steven N, 1985. "The Influence of Private Contractual Failure on Regulation: The Case of Oil Field Unitization," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 93(4), pages 690-714, August.
    25. Livernois, John R & Uhler, Russell S, 1987. "Extraction Costs and the Economics of Nonrenewable Resources," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 95(1), pages 195-203, February.
    26. Hendricks, Kenneth & Porter, Robert H, 1996. "The Timing and Incidence of Exploratory Drilling on Offshore Wildcat Tracts," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 86(3), pages 388-407, June.
    27. Black, Geoffrey & LaFrance, Jeffrey T., 1998. "Is Hotelling's Rule Relevant to Domestic Oil Production?," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 149-169, September.
    28. Robert Halvorsen & Tim R. Smith, 1991. "A Test of the Theory of Exhaustible Resources," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 106(1), pages 123-140.
    29. Smith, V Kerry, 1979. "Natural Resource Scarcity: A Statistical Analysis," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 61(3), pages 423-427, August.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. John Boyce & David Bruner, 2012. "Property rights out of anarchy? The Demsetz hypothesis in a game of conflict," Economics of Governance, Springer, vol. 13(2), pages 95-120, June.
    2. Osmundsen, Petter & Rosendahl, Knut Einar & Skjerpen, Terje, 2015. "Understanding rig rate formation in the Gulf of Mexico," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 430-439.
    3. Osmundsen, Petter & Rosendahl, Knut Einar & Skjerpen, Terje, 2012. "Understanding Rig Rates," UiS Working Papers in Economics and Finance 2012/9, University of Stavanger.
    4. Harry Patria & Vid Adrison, 2015. "Oil Exploration Economics: Empirical Evidence from Indonesian Geological Basins," Economics and Finance in Indonesia, Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Indonesia, vol. 61, pages 196-213, December.
    5. van den Bijgaart, Inge & Rodriguez, Mauricio, 2020. "Closing wells; fossil exploration and abandonment in the energy transition," Working Papers in Economics 789, University of Gothenburg, Department of Economics.
    6. Brian R. Copeland & M. Scott Taylor, 2017. "Environmental and resource economics: A Canadian retrospective," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 50(5), pages 1381-1413, December.
    7. John R. Boyce & David M. Bruner, 2009. "Good Fences Make Good Neighbors: Endogenous Property Rights in a Game of Conflict," Working Papers 09-05, Department of Economics, Appalachian State University.
    8. van den Bijgaart, Inge & Rodriguez, Mauricio, 2023. "Closing wells: Fossil development and abandonment in the energy transition," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    9. Chuku, Chuku & Lang, Lin & Lim, King Yoong, 2023. "Public debt, Chinese loans and optimal exploration–extraction in Africa," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 118(C).
    10. Cairns, Robert D., 2018. "Stranded oil of Erewhon," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 121(C), pages 248-251.
    11. Skjerpen, Terje & Storrøsten, Halvor Briseid & Rosendahl, Knut Einar & Osmundsen, Petter, 2018. "Modelling and forecasting rig rates on the Norwegian Continental Shelf," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 220-239.
    12. Brian R. Copeland & M. Scott Taylor, 2017. "Environmental and resource economics: A Canadian retrospective," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 50(5), pages 1381-1413, December.
    13. Sabet, Amir H. & Heaney, Richard, 2015. "Bid-ask spread, information asymmetry and acquisition of oil and gas assets," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 77-84.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Cees Withagen, 1998. "Untested Hypotheses in Non-Renewable Resource Economics," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 11(3), pages 623-634, April.
    2. Chermak, Janie M. & Patrick, Robert H., 2001. "A Microeconometric Test of the Theory of Exhaustible Resources," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 42(1), pages 82-103, July.
    3. Soren T. Anderson & Ryan Kellogg & Stephen W. Salant, 2018. "Hotelling under Pressure," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 126(3), pages 984-1026.
    4. John Livernois & Henry Thille & Xianqiang Zhang, 2006. "A test of the Hotelling rule using old‐growth timber data," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 39(1), pages 163-186, February.
    5. Chermak, Janie M. & Patrick, Robert H., 2002. "Comparing tests of the theory of exhaustible resources," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(4), pages 301-325, November.
    6. Jianzhong Xiao & Xiaolin Wang & Ran Wang, 2016. "Research on Factors Affecting the Optimal Exploitation of Natural Gas Resources in China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 8(5), pages 1-13, May.
    7. Jeffrey A. Krautkraemer, 1998. "Nonrenewable Resource Scarcity," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 36(4), pages 2065-2107, December.
    8. Margaret E. Slade & Henry Thille, 2009. "Whither Hotelling: Tests of the Theory of Exhaustible Resources," Annual Review of Resource Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 1(1), pages 239-259, September.
    9. Okullo, Samuel J. & Reynès, Frédéric & Hofkes, Marjan W., 2015. "Modeling peak oil and the geological constraints on oil production," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 36-56.
    10. Caputo, Michael R., 2011. "A nearly complete test of a capital accumulating, vertically integrated, nonrenewable resource extracting theory of a competitive firm," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 725-744, September.
    11. Hart, Rob & Spiro, Daniel, 2011. "The elephant in Hotelling's room," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(12), pages 7834-7838.
    12. Smith, James L., 2012. "On the portents of peak oil (and other indicators of resource scarcity)," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 68-78.
    13. Balthrop, Andrew T. & Schnier, Kurt E., 2016. "A regression discontinuity approach to measuring the effectiveness of oil and natural gas regulation to address the common-pool externality," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 118-138.
    14. Frechette, Darren L., 1999. "Scarcity rents and the returns to mining," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 39-49, March.
    15. Robert Halvorsen & Tim R. Smith, 1991. "A Test of the Theory of Exhaustible Resources," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 106(1), pages 123-140.
    16. Spiro, Daniel, 2014. "Resource prices and planning horizons," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 159-175.
    17. Lisa Leinert, 2012. "Does the Oil Price Adjust Optimally to Oil Field Discoveries?," CER-ETH Economics working paper series 12/169, CER-ETH - Center of Economic Research (CER-ETH) at ETH Zurich.
    18. Reynolds, Douglas B. & Baek, Jungho, 2012. "Much ado about Hotelling: Beware the ides of Hubbert," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 162-170.
    19. Holland, Stephen P., 2003. "Set-up costs and the existence of competitive equilibrium when extraction capacity is limited," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 46(3), pages 539-556, November.
    20. Addison, Tony & Ghoshray, Atanu, 2023. "Discerning trends in international metal prices in the presence of nonstationary volatility," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:dyncon:v:35:y:2011:i:6:p:891-908. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jedc .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.