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The undisclosed Renminbi Basket: are the markets telling us something about where the Renminbi - US Dollar Exchange Rate is going?

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Author Info
Marc Gronwald ()
Michael Funke ()
Abstract

On 21 July 2005 China adopted an undisclosed basket exchange rate regime. We formally assess and envisage the gradual evolution of the renminbi over time. We utilize nonlinear dependencies in the renminbi exchange rate and describe the smooth transition of the renminbi/U.S. dollar (RMB/USD) exchange rate using the family of time-varying autoregressive (TV-AR) models. Specifically, the nonlinear models allow for a smooth transition from one optimal level to another. Our estimation results imply that the RMB/USD exchange rate will likely be about 7.10 RMB/USD in summer/autumn 2009.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Hamburg University, Department of Economics in its series Quantitative Macroeconomics Working Papers with number 20804.

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Date of creation: Apr 2008
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Handle: RePEc:ham:qmwops:20804

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Related research
Keywords: China; renminbi; de facto exchange rate regime; TV-AR model; TV-AR-GARCH model;

Find related papers by JEL classification:
C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions
F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
F37 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Finance Forecasting and Simulation

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  1. Kim, Yong Jin, 2007. "A model of industrial hollowing-out of neighboring countries by the economic growth of China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 122-138. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. Dick van Dijk & Timo Teräsvirta & Philip Hans Franses, 2002. "Smooth Transition Autoregressive Models - A Survey Of Recent Developments," Econometric Reviews, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 21(1), pages 1-47. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Guillermo A. Calvo & Carmen M. Reinhart, 2002. "Fear Of Floating," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 117(2), pages 379-408, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Steven Vincent Dunaway & Lamin Leigh & Xiangming Li, 2006. "How Robust are Estimates of Equilibrium Real Exchange Rates: The Case of China," IMF Working Papers 06/220, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  6. Yin-Wong Cheung & Menzie D. Chinn & Eiji Fujii, 2007. "The Overvaluation of Renminbi Undervaluation," NBER Working Papers 12850, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. MacKinnon, James G. & White, Halbert, 1985. "Some heteroskedasticity-consistent covariance matrix estimators with improved finite sample properties," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 305-325, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. Jeffrey A. Frankel & Shang-Jin Wei, 2007. "Assessing China's Exchange Rate Regime," NBER Working Papers 13100, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. Lin, Chien-Fu Jeff & Terasvirta, Timo, 1994. "Testing the constancy of regression parameters against continuous structural change," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 62(2), pages 211-228, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. Michael Funke & Jörg Rahn, 2005. "Just how Undervalued is the Chinese Renminbi," Quantitative Macroeconomics Working Papers 20504, Hamburg University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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  11. Cao, Liangyue & Soofi, Abdol S., 1999. "Nonlinear deterministic forecasting of daily dollar exchange rates," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 15(4), pages 421-430, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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