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Unit Roots, TV-STARs, and the Commodity Terms of Trade: A Further Assessment of the Prebisch-Singer Hypothesis

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Author Info
Balagtas, Joseph V.
Holt, Matthew T.

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Abstract

Replaced with revised version of paper 06/27/06.

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Paper provided by American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association) in its series 2006 Annual meeting, July 23-26, Long Beach, CA with number 21405.

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Date of creation: 2006
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Handle: RePEc:ags:aaea06:21405

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Keywords: Research Methods/ Statistical Methods;

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  1. Terasvirta, T & Anderson, H M, 1992. "Characterizing Nonlinearities in Business Cycles Using Smooth Transition Autoregressive Models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 7(S), pages S119-36, Suppl. De. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Zanias, George P., 2005. "Testing for trends in the terms of trade between primary commodities and manufactured goods," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(1), pages 49-59, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Powell, Andrew, 1991. "Commodity and Developing Country Terms of Trade: What Does the Long Run Show?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 101(409), pages 1485-96, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  4. Z. Lomnicki, 1961. "Tests for departure from normality in the case of linear stochastic processes," Metrika, Springer, vol. 4(1), pages 37-62, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Newbold, Paul & Vougas, Dimitrios, 1996. "Drift in the Relative Price of Primary Commodities: A Case Where We Care about Unit Roots," Applied Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 28(6), pages 653-61, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Tae-Hwan Kim & Stephan Pfaffenzeller & Tony Rayner & Paul Newbold, 2003. "Testing for Linear Trend with Application to Relative Primary Commodity Prices," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 24(5), pages 539-551, 09. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Anna Persson & Timo Teräsvirta, 2003. "The net barter terms of trade: A smooth transition approach," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 8(1), pages 81-97. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  8. Terasvirta, Timo & van Dijk, Dick & Medeiros, Marcelo C., 2005. "Linear models, smooth transition autoregressions, and neural networks for forecasting macroeconomic time series: A re-examination," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 21(4), pages 755-774. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  9. James G. MacKinnon, 2002. "Bootstrap inference in econometrics," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 35(4), pages 615-645, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Kapetanios, George & Shin, Yongcheol & Snell, Andy, 2003. "Testing for a unit root in the nonlinear STAR framework," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 112(2), pages 359-379, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Dijk, Dick van & Franses, Philip Hans, 1999. "Modeling Multiple Regimes in the Business Cycle," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 3(03), pages 311-340, September. [Downloadable!]
  12. JAVIER LEÓN & RAIMUNDO SOTO, 1997. "Structural Breaks And Long-Run Trends In Commodity Prices," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 9(3), pages 347-366.
    Other versions:
  13. Hansen, Bruce E, 1996. "Inference When a Nuisance Parameter Is Not Identified under the Null Hypothesis," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 64(2), pages 413-30, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  14. Kellard, Neil & Wohar, Mark E., 2006. "On the prevalence of trends in primary commodity prices," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 79(1), pages 146-167, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  15. Robin L. Lumsdaine & David H. Papell, 1997. "Multiple Trend Breaks And The Unit-Root Hypothesis," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 79(2), pages 212-218, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  16. Lundbergh, Stefan & Terasvirta, Timo & van Dijk, Dick, 2003. "Time-Varying Smooth Transition Autoregressive Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 21(1), pages 104-21, January.
    Other versions:
  17. Perron, Pierre, 1989. "The Great Crash, the Oil Price Shock, and the Unit Root Hypothesis," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(6), pages 1361-1401, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  18. Matthew T. Holt & Lee A. Craig, 2006. "Nonlinear Dynamics and Structural Change in the U.S. Hog-Corn Cycle: A Time-Varying STAR Approach," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, American Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 88(1), pages 215-233, 02. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  19. Van Dijk, D. & Franses, P.H., 1997. "Modelling Multiple Regimes in the Business Cycle," Papers 9734/a, Erasmus University of Rotterdam - Econometric Institute.
  20. Jose Antonio Ocampo & Maria Angela Parra, 2004. "The Terms Of Trade For Commodities In The Twentieth Century," International Trade 0402006, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
  21. Hall, Alastair R, 1994. "Testing for a Unit Root in Time Series with Pretest Data-Based Model Selection," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 12(4), pages 461-70, October.
  22. van Dijk, Dick & Teräsvirta, Timo & Franses, Philip Hans, 2000. "Smooth Transition Autoregressive Models - A Survey of Recent Developments," Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 380, Stockholm School of Economics, revised 17 Jan 2001. [Downloadable!]
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  23. Perron, Pierre, 1997. "Further evidence on breaking trend functions in macroeconomic variables," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 80(2), pages 355-385, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
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