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Trends in international commodity prices: Panel unit root analysis

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  • Nazlioglu, Saban

Abstract

The purpose of this paper is to examine the behavior of international commodity prices within the context of the Prebisch–Singer hypothesis. To this end, I utilize a panel unit root approach which is able to account for multiple structural breaks and cross-section dependency. The unit root analysis for 24 international commodity prices during the period 1900–2003 shows evidence in favor of the trend stationary process in the commodity prices. The results thereby imply that shocks to commodity prices are temporary in nature and tend to be corrected over time. The estimation of the trend stationary models indicates that the Prebisch–Singer hypothesis is not a universal phenomenon.

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  • Nazlioglu, Saban, 2014. "Trends in international commodity prices: Panel unit root analysis," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 441-451.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecofin:v:29:y:2014:i:c:p:441-451
    DOI: 10.1016/j.najef.2014.06.010
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    Cited by:

    1. Manuel Landajo & Mar'ia Jos'e Presno, 2024. "The prices of renewable commodities: A robust stationarity analysis," Papers 2402.01005, arXiv.org.
    2. Nazlioglu, Saban & Karul, Cagin, 2017. "A panel stationarity test with gradual structural shifts: Re-investigate the international commodity price shocks," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 181-192.
    3. Manuel Landajo & María José Presno, 2022. "The prices of renewable commodities: a robust stationarity analysis," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 66(2), pages 447-470, April.
    4. Buncic, Daniel & Moretto, Carlo, 2015. "Forecasting copper prices with dynamic averaging and selection models," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 1-38.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Commodity prices; Unit root; Cross-sectional dependency; Structural breaks; Panel data;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • O13 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Agriculture; Natural Resources; Environment; Other Primary Products
    • O19 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - International Linkages to Development; Role of International Organizations

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