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The Prebisch-Singer Hypothesis: A Reappraisal Independent of Stationarity Hypotheses

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Author Info
Ardeni, Pier Giorgio
Wright, Brian

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Abstract

Structural time series analysis, which requires no prior assumptions regarding stationarity and allows for a wide variety of behavior, reveals that the net barter terms of trade between primary commodities and manufactures has a negative deterministic trend over this century as hypothesized by R. Prebisch (1950) and H. Singer (1950). However, the rate of decline is only about half what is predicted using the data available to Prebisch and Singer. The authors' finding of secular deterioration is robust; it holds if data after the oil shock of 1973, or before a previously claimed structural shift in 1921, are excluded from the sample. Copyright 1992 by Royal Economic Society.

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Publisher Info
Article provided by Royal Economic Society in its journal The Economic Journal.

Volume (Year): 102 (1992)
Issue (Month): 413 (July)
Pages: 803-12
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Handle: RePEc:ecj:econjl:v:102:y:1992:i:413:p:803-12

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  1. Anna Persson & Timo Teräsvirta, 2003. "The net barter terms of trade: A smooth transition approach," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 8(1), pages 81-97. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Angus Deaton, 1999. "Commodity Prices and Growth in Africa," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 13(3), pages 23-40, Summer. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  3. Bunzel, Helle & Vogelsang, Timothy J., 2003. "Powerful Trend Function Tests That are Robust to Strong Serial Correlation with an Application to the Prebisch-Singer Hypothesis," Staff General Research Papers 10353, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    Other versions:
  4. José Antonio Ocampo & María Angela Parra, 2004. "The commodity terms of trade and their strategic implications for development," International Trade 0403001, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
  5. Jose Antonio Ocampo & Maria Angela Parra, 2004. "The Terms Of Trade For Commodities In The Twentieth Century," International Trade 0402006, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
  6. Geuna,Aldo, 1996. "European universities : an interpretative history," Research Memoranda 008, Maastricht : MERIT, Maastricht Economic Research Institute on Innovation and Technology. [Downloadable!]
  7. Ziesemer ,Thomas, 1996. "Dissent on convergence : the role of public factors, international trade and path dependence," Research Memoranda 004, Maastricht : MERIT, Maastricht Economic Research Institute on Innovation and Technology. [Downloadable!]
  8. Andre Varella Mollick & Joao Ricardo Faria & Pedro H. Albuquerque & Miguel A. Leon-Ledesma, 2005. "Can Globalisation Stop the Decline in Commodities' Terms of Trade? The Prebisch-Singer Hypothesis Revisited"," Studies in Economics 0510, Department of Economics, University of Kent. [Downloadable!]
  9. John T. Cuddington & Hong Liang & Shihua Lu, 1996. "Uncertainty, Trade, and Capital Flows in Sub-Saharan Africa," International Finance 9602002, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
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