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A reexamination of trends in primary commodity prices

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  • Ghoshray, Atanu

Abstract

This paper conducts a reexamination of the Prebisch-Singer hypothesis by employing the unit root test proposed by Lee and Strazicich (2003) and Lee and Strazicich (2004) that allow for up to two structural breaks. Given the higher power of these tests compared to the Zivot and Andrews (1992) and Lumsdaine and Papell (1997) tests, rejection of the null can be considered as genuine evidence of stationarity. The main findings of this paper are that eleven out of twenty-four commodity prices are found to be difference stationary implying that shocks to these commodities tend to be permanent in nature. The remaining thirteen prices are found to exhibit trend stationary behavior with either one or two structural breaks. Most of the commodities that do not exhibit difference stationary behavior seem to contain no significant trends. There are fewer cases, in relation to past studies, of commodities that display negative trends thereby weakening the case for the Prebisch-Singer hypothesis.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Development Economics.

Volume (Year): 95 (2011)
Issue (Month): 2 (July)
Pages: 242-251

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Handle: RePEc:eee:deveco:v:95:y:2011:i:2:p:242-251

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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/devec

Related research

Keywords: Primary commodity prices Unit roots Structural change Prebisch-Singer hypothesis;

References

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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Ana Iregui & Jesús Otero, 2013. "The long-run behaviour of the terms of trade between primary commodities and manufactures: a panel data approach," Portuguese Economic Journal, Springer, vol. 12(1), pages 35-56, April.
  2. Serra, Teresa & Zilberman, David, 2013. "Biofuel-related price transmission literature: A review," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 141-151.
  3. Konstantin M. Wacker, 2011. "Do multinationals beat down developing countries' export prices? The impact of FDI on net barter terms of trade," Ibero America Institute for Econ. Research (IAI) Discussion Papers 211, Ibero-America Institute for Economic Research.
  4. David Harvey & Neil Kellard & Jakob Madsen & Mark Wohar, 2012. "Trends and Cycles in Real Commodity Prices: 1650-2010," CEH Discussion Papers 010, Centre for Economic History, Research School of Economics, Australian National University.
  5. Ghoshray, Atanu & Kejriwal, Mohitosh & Wohar, Mark E., 2011. "Breaking Trends and the Prebisch-Singer Hypothesis: A Further Investigation," 2011 International Congress, August 30-September 2, 2011, Zurich, Switzerland 120387, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
  6. Yamada, Hiroshi & Yoon, Gawon, 2014. "When Grilli and Yang meet Prebisch and Singer: Piecewise linear trends in primary commodity prices," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 193-207.
  7. Andaleeb Rahman, 2012. "Characterizing food prices in India," Working Papers 2012-022, Madras School of Economics,Chennai,India.
  8. Otero, Jesús, 2011. "The Long-Run Behaviour of the Terms of Trade between Primary Commodities and Manufactures," Working Paper Series UNU-WIDER Research Paper , World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
  9. Samuel Bazzi, Christopher Blattman, 2011. " Economic Shocks and Conflict: The (Absence of?) Evidence from Commodity Price- Working Paper 274," Working Papers 274, Center for Global Development.
  10. Addison, Tony & Ghoshray, Atanu, 2013. "Agricultural commodity price shocks and their effect on growth in sub-Saharan Africa," Working Paper Series UNU-WIDER Research Paper , World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
  11. Presno, María José & Landajo, Manuel & Fernández, Paula, 2012. "Non-renewable resource prices. A robust evaluation from the stationarity perspective," MPRA Paper 42523, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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