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Testing for Linear Trend with Application to Relative Primary Commodity Prices

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  • Tae-Hwan Kim
  • Stephan Pfaffenzeller
  • Tony Rayner
  • Paul Newbold

Abstract

Much research has been devoted to assessing the evidence for linear trend in a time series. We discuss the statistical implications of some recent developments, with specific application to 24 time series of relative primary commodities prices. Copyright 2003 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Wiley Blackwell in its journal Journal of Time Series Analysis.

Volume (Year): 24 (2003)
Issue (Month): 5 (09)
Pages: 539-551

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Handle: RePEc:bla:jtsera:v:24:y:2003:i:5:p:539-551

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Web page: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/journal.asp?ref=0143-9782

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Cited by:
  1. Rabah Arezki & Kaddour Hadri & Prakash Loungani & Yao Rao, 2013. "Testing the Prebisch-Singer Hypothesis since 1650," IMF Working Papers 13/180, International Monetary Fund.
  2. Ana Iregui & Jesús Otero, 2013. "The long-run behaviour of the terms of trade between primary commodities and manufactures: a panel data approach," Portuguese Economic Journal, Springer, vol. 12(1), pages 35-56, April.
  3. Arezki, Rabah & Hadri, Kaddour & Kurozumi, Eiji & Rao, Yao, 2012. "Testing the Prebish–Singer hypothesis using second-generation panel data stationarity tests with a break," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 117(3), pages 814-816.
  4. Konstantin M. Wacker, 2011. "Do multinationals beat down developing countries' export prices? The impact of FDI on net barter terms of trade," Ibero America Institute for Econ. Research (IAI) Discussion Papers 211, Ibero-America Institute for Economic Research.
  5. Konstantin M. Wacker, 2011. "The Impact of Foreign Direct Investment on Developing Countries’ Terms of Trade," Working Paper Series UNU-WIDER Working Paper W, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
  6. Ghoshray, Atanu & Kejriwal, Mohitosh & Wohar, Mark E., 2011. "Breaking Trends and the Prebisch-Singer Hypothesis: A Further Investigation," 2011 International Congress, August 30-September 2, 2011, Zurich, Switzerland 120387, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
  7. Cuddington, John T. & Nülle, Grant, 2014. "Variable long-term trends in mineral prices: The ongoing tug-of-war between exploration, depletion, and technological change," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 224-252.
  8. Kaddour Hadri, 2010. "What can we learn from primary commodity prices series which is useful to policymakers in resource-rich countries?," Working Papers 0001, Queen's University Management School, revised Nov 2010.
  9. David Harvey & Neil Kellard & Jakob Madsen & Mark Wohar, 2012. "Trends and Cycles in Real Commodity Prices: 1650-2010," CEH Discussion Papers 010, Centre for Economic History, Research School of Economics, Australian National University.
  10. Paul Newbold & Stephan Pfaffenzeller & Anthony Rayner, 2005. "How well are long-run commodity price series characterized by trend components?," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 17(4), pages 479-494.
  11. Balagtas, Joseph V. & Holt, Matthew T., 2009. "AJAE Appendix: The Commodity Terms of Trade, Unit Roots, and Nonlinear Alternatives," American Journal of Agricultural Economics Appendices, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 91(1), February.
  12. Yamada, Hiroshi & Yoon, Gawon, 2014. "When Grilli and Yang meet Prebisch and Singer: Piecewise linear trends in primary commodity prices," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 193-207.
  13. Balagtas, Joseph Valdes & Holt, Matthew T., 2006. "Unit Roots, TV-STARs, and the Commodity Terms of Trade: A Further Assessment of the Prebisch-Singer Hypothesis," 2006 Annual meeting, July 23-26, Long Beach, CA 21405, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
  14. Rabah Arezki & Kaddour Hadri & Yao Rao, 2013. "Testing the Prebisch-Singer Hypothesis Since 1650: Evidence from panel techniques that allow for multiple breaks," Economics Series Working Papers OxCarre Research Paper 12, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
  15. Patricia Gómez-González & Daniel Rees, 2013. "Stochastic Terms of Trade Volatility in Small Open Economies," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2013-10, Reserve Bank of Australia.
  16. Otero, Jesús, 2011. "The Long-Run Behaviour of the Terms of Trade between Primary Commodities and Manufactures," Working Paper Series UNU-WIDER Research Paper , World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
  17. Fabio Busetti & Andrew Harvey, 2007. "Testing for trend," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 614, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
  18. Kellard, Neil & Wohar, Mark E., 2006. "On the prevalence of trends in primary commodity prices," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 79(1), pages 146-167, February.
  19. Ghoshray, Atanu, 2011. "A reexamination of trends in primary commodity prices," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 95(2), pages 242-251, July.

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