IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/sae/prodev/v1y2001i4p309-327.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The North-South terms of trade debate: a re-examination

Author

Listed:
  • Prabirjit Sarkar

    (Rabindra Bharati University, Calcutta, India, Prabirjit@yahoo.com, Prabirjitsarkar@hotmail.com)

Abstract

Contrary to the classical proposition, the works of Prebisch and Singer launched the controversial hypothesis of long-term decline in the terms of trade of primary products vis-Ã -vis manufactures and a corresponding decline in the terms of trade of the South vis-Ã -vis the North. The present study traces the origin and evolution of the hypothesis and reviews the related statistical debate. It concludes that the empirical base of the Prebisch-Singer hypothesis is much stronger than it appeared in earlier decades. Reviewing some of the North-South models, the study also finds theoretical support for the Prebisch-Singer hypothesis.

Suggested Citation

  • Prabirjit Sarkar, 2001. "The North-South terms of trade debate: a re-examination," Progress in Development Studies, , vol. 1(4), pages 309-327, October.
  • Handle: RePEc:sae:prodev:v:1:y:2001:i:4:p:309-327
    DOI: 10.1177/146499340100100403
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/146499340100100403
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1177/146499340100100403?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Prebisch, Raúl, 1950. "The economic development of Latin America and its principal problems," Sede de la CEPAL en Santiago (Estudios e Investigaciones) 29973, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL).
    2. Bloch, Harry & Sapsford, David, 2000. "Whither the Terms of Trade? An Elaboration of the Prebisch-Singer Hypothesis," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 24(4), pages 461-481, July.
    3. Mill, John Stuart, 1848. "Principles of Political Economy (II): Distribution," History of Economic Thought Books, McMaster University Archive for the History of Economic Thought, volume 2, number mill1848-2.
    4. D. Sapsford & P. Sarkar & H. W. Singer, 1992. "The prebisch‐singer terms of trade controversy revisited," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 4(3), pages 315-332, May.
    5. Sapsford, D, 1985. "The Statistical Debate on the Net Barter Terms of Trade between Primary Commodities and Manufactures: A Comment and Some Additional Evidence," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 95(379), pages 781-788, September.
    6. Maizels, Alfred, 1994. "The continuing commodity crisis of developing countries," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 22(11), pages 1685-1695, November.
    7. Grilli, Enzo R & Yang, Maw Cheng, 1988. "Primary Commodity Prices, Manufactured Goods Prices, and the Terms of Trade of Developing Countries: What the Long Run Shows," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 2(1), pages 1-47, January.
    8. Ardeni, Pier Giorgio & Wright, Brian, 1992. "The Prebisch-Singer Hypothesis: A Reappraisal Independent of Stationarity Hypotheses," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 102(413), pages 803-812, July.
    9. H. W. Singer, 1975. "The Strategy of International Development," Palgrave Macmillan Books, Palgrave Macmillan, number 978-1-349-04228-9.
    10. Sarkar, Prabirjit, 1986. "The Singer-Prebisch Hypothesis: A Statistical Evaluation," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 10(4), pages 355-371, December.
    11. Spraos, John, 1980. "The Statistical Debate on the Net Barter Terms of Trade between Primary Commodities and Manufactures," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 90(357), pages 107-128, March.
    12. Bleaney, Michael F & Greenaway, David, 1993. "Long-Run Trends in the Relative Price of Primary Commodities and in the Terms of Trade of Developing Countries," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 45(3), pages 349-363, July.
    13. Mill, John Stuart, 1848. "Principles of Political Economy (III): Exchange," History of Economic Thought Books, McMaster University Archive for the History of Economic Thought, volume 3, number mill1848-3.
    14. Thirlwall, A. P. & Bergevin, J., 1985. "Trends, cycles and asymmetries in the terms of trade of primary commodities from developed and less developed countries," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 13(7), pages 805-817, July.
    15. G. M. Meier, 1958. "International Trade And International Inequality," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 10(3), pages 277-289.
    16. Robert E. Lipsey, 1963. "Introduction to "Price and Quantity Trends in the Foreign Trade of the United States"," NBER Chapters, in: Price and Quantity Trends in the Foreign Trade of the United States, pages 3-7, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    17. Evans, David, 1987. "The long-run determinants of North-South terms of trade and some recent empirical evidence," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 15(5), pages 657-671, May.
    18. Findlay, Ronald, 1980. "The Terms of Trade and Equilibrium Growth in the World Economy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 70(3), pages 291-299, June.
    19. Darity, William A, Jr, 1990. "The Fundamental Determinants of the Terms of Trade Reconsidered: Long-run and Long-period Equilibrium," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(4), pages 816-827, September.
    20. Barros, Alexandre Rands, 1992. "On the Deterioration of the Terms of Trade for Primary Commodities," Brazilian Review of Econometrics, Sociedade Brasileira de Econometria - SBE, vol. 12(1), April.
    21. Mill, John Stuart, 1848. "Principles of Political Economy (V): On the Influence of Government," History of Economic Thought Books, McMaster University Archive for the History of Economic Thought, volume 5, number mill1848-5.
    22. T. Morgan, 1963. "Trends in Terms of Trade, and Their Repercussions on Primary Producers," International Economic Association Series, in: Roy Harrod & Douglas Hague (ed.), International Trade Theory in a Developing World, chapter 0, pages 52-95, Palgrave Macmillan.
    23. Matthias G. Lutz, 1999. "A General Test of the Prebisch–Singer Hypothesis," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 3(1), pages 44-57, February.
    24. Cuddington, John T., 1992. "Long-run trends in 26 primary commodity prices : A disaggregated look at the Prebisch-Singer hypothesis," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(2), pages 207-227, October.
    25. Powell, Andrew, 1991. "Commodity and Developing Country Terms of Trade: What Does the Long Run Show?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 101(409), pages 1485-1496, November.
    26. Sarkar, Prabirjit, 1997. "Growth and Terms of Trade: A North-South Macroeconomic Framework," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 117-133, January.
    27. Paul Streeten, 1974. "World Trade in Agricultural Commodities and the Terms of Trade with Industrial Goods," International Economic Association Series, in: Nurul Islam (ed.), Agricultural Policy in Developing Countries, chapter 8, pages 207-223, Palgrave Macmillan.
    28. Gottfried Haberler, 1961. "Terms of Trade and Economic Development," International Economic Association Series, in: Howard S. Ellis (ed.), Economic Development for Latin America, chapter 0, pages 275-307, Palgrave Macmillan.
    29. Cuddington, John T & Urzua, Carlos M, 1989. "Trends and Cycles in the Net Barter Terms of Trade: A New Approach," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 99(396), pages 426-442, June.
    30. Ronald Findlay & Bo Södersten, 1981. "The Fundamental Determinants of the Terms of Trade," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: Sven Grassman & Erik Lundberg (ed.), The World Economic Order, chapter 12, pages 425-463, Palgrave Macmillan.
    31. Robert E. Lipsey, 1963. "Price and Quantity Trends in the Foreign Trade of the United States," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number lips63-1, March.
    32. Mill, John Stuart, 1848. "Principles of Political Economy (I): Production," History of Economic Thought Books, McMaster University Archive for the History of Economic Thought, volume 1, number mill1848-1.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Rivera-Basques, Luisa & Duarte, Rosa & Sánchez-Chóliz, Julio, 2021. "Unequal ecological exchange in the era of global value chains: The case of Latin America," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 180(C).
    2. Trofimov, Ivan D., 2018. "Income terms of trade and economic convergence: Evidence from Latin America," MPRA Paper 87598, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Prabirjit Sarkar, 2005. "Rising manufacture exports and terms of trade: the case study of Korea," Progress in Development Studies, , vol. 5(2), pages 83-88, April.
    4. Thomas H.W. Ziesemer, 2014. "Country terms of trade: trends, unit roots, over-differencing, endogeneity, time dummies, and heterogeneity," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 28(6), pages 767-796, September.
    5. Konstantin M. Wacker, 2011. "The Impact of Foreign Direct Investment on Developing Countries’ Terms of Trade," WIDER Working Paper Series 006, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    6. George Economakis & Maria Markaki & Alexios Anastasiadis, 2015. "Structural Analysis of the Greek Economy," Review of Radical Political Economics, Union for Radical Political Economics, vol. 47(3), pages 424-445, September.
    7. Prabirjit Sarkar, 2008. "Trade Openness and Growth: Is There Any Link?," Journal of Economic Issues, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(3), pages 763-785, September.
    8. Mohamed Saadi, 2011. "Technology Transfer, Foreign Direct Investment, Licensing and the Developing Countries’ Terms of Trade," Margin: The Journal of Applied Economic Research, National Council of Applied Economic Research, vol. 5(4), pages 381-420, November.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Shouvik Chakraborty & Prabirjit Sarkar, 2020. "From The Classical Economists To Empiricists: A Review Of The Terms Of Trade Controversy," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 34(5), pages 1111-1133, December.
    2. Bilge Erten, 2010. "Industrial Upgrading and Export Diversification: A Comparative Analysis of Economic Policies in Turkey and Malaysia," Working Papers id:2778, eSocialSciences.
    3. José Antonio Ocampo & María Angela Parra, 2004. "The commodity terms of trade and their strategic implications for development," International Trade 0403001, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Hadass, Yael S & Williamson, Jeffrey G, 2003. "Terms-of-Trade Shocks and Economic Performance, 1870-1940: Prebisch and Singer Revisited," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 51(3), pages 629-656, April.
    5. André Varella Mollick & João Ricardo Faria & Pedro H. Albuquerque & Miguel A. León-Ledesma, 2008. "Can globalisation stop the decline in commodities' terms of trade?," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 32(5), pages 683-701, September.
    6. Cuddington, John T. & Ludema, Rodney & Jayasuriya, Shamila A, 2002. "Prebisch-Singer Redux," Working Papers 15857, United States International Trade Commission, Office of Economics.
    7. Hany Fahmy, 2021. "A Reappraisal of the Prebisch-Singer Hypothesis Using Wavelets Analysis," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 14(7), pages 1-17, July.
    8. Ghoshray, Atanu & Kejriwal, Mohitosh & Wohar, Mark E., 2011. "Breaking Trends and the Prebisch-Singer Hypothesis: A Further Investigation," 2011 International Congress, August 30-September 2, 2011, Zurich, Switzerland 120387, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    9. Kellard, Neil & Mark E Wohar, 2003. "Trends and Persistence in Primary Commodity Prices," Royal Economic Society Annual Conference 2003 118, Royal Economic Society.
    10. Ghoshray, Atanu, 2011. "A reexamination of trends in primary commodity prices," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 95(2), pages 242-251, July.
    11. Otero, Jesús, 2011. "The Long-Run Behaviour of the Terms of Trade between Primary Commodities and Manufactures," WIDER Working Paper Series 071, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    12. Konstantin M. Wacker, 2016. "Do Multinationals Deteriorate Developing Countries' Export Prices? The Impact of FDI on Net Barter Terms of Trade," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 39(12), pages 1974-1999, December.
    13. Konstantin M. Wacker, 2011. "Do multinationals beat down developing countries' export prices? The impact of FDI on net barter terms of trade," Ibero America Institute for Econ. Research (IAI) Discussion Papers 211, Ibero-America Institute for Economic Research.
    14. Ana Iregui & Jesús Otero, 2013. "The long-run behaviour of the terms of trade between primary commodities and manufactures: a panel data approach," Portuguese Economic Journal, Springer;Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestao, vol. 12(1), pages 35-56, April.
    15. Luis Eduardo Arango & Fernando Arias & Luz Adriana Flórez, 2008. "Trends, Fluctuations, and Determinants of Commodity Prices," Borradores de Economia 521, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    16. Joseph V. Balagtas & Matthew T. Holt, 2009. "The Commodity Terms of Trade, Unit Roots, and Nonlinear Alternatives: A Smooth Transition Approach," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 91(1), pages 87-105.
    17. Geronimi, Vincent & Taranco, Armand, 2018. "Revisiting the Prebisch-Singer hypothesis of a secular decline in the terms of trade of primary commodities (1900–2016). A dynamic regime approach," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 329-339.
    18. Anna Persson & Timo Teräsvirta, 2003. "The net barter terms of trade: A smooth transition approach," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 8(1), pages 81-97.
    19. Trofimov, Ivan D., 2018. "Income terms of trade and economic convergence: Evidence from Latin America," MPRA Paper 87598, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    20. Kellard, Neil & Wohar, Mark E., 2006. "On the prevalence of trends in primary commodity prices," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 79(1), pages 146-167, February.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:sae:prodev:v:1:y:2001:i:4:p:309-327. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: SAGE Publications (email available below). General contact details of provider: .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.