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A General Test of the Prebisch-Singer Hypothesis

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Lutz, Matthias G

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Abstract

This paper examines jointly the Prebisch-Singer hypothesis of a long-term decline in the relative price of primary commodities and the appropriate framework in which it is tested. A general model is estimated which nests the univariate and bivariate time-series models used in the past literature. The results suggest that the econometric models estimated in the majority of previous studies strongly support the Prebisch-Singer hypothesis and reject recent findings--that the terms of trade are characterized by infrequent negative shocks--in favor of a long-term negative trend. Copyright 1999 by Blackwell Publishing Ltd

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Article provided by Blackwell Publishing in its journal Review of Development Economics.

Volume (Year): 3 (1999)
Issue (Month): 1 (February)
Pages: 44-57
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Handle: RePEc:bla:rdevec:v:3:y:1999:i:1:p:44-57

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  1. Matthias G. Lutz, 1999. "Commodity terms of trade and individual countries' net barter terms of trade: Is there an empirical relationship?," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(6), pages 859-870.
  2. Anna Persson & Timo Teräsvirta, 2003. "The net barter terms of trade: A smooth transition approach," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 8(1), pages 81-97. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Christian Gillitzer & Jonathan Kearns, 2005. "Long-term Patterns in Australia's Terms of Trade," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2005-01, Reserve Bank of Australia. [Downloadable!]
  4. Bunzel, Helle & Vogelsang, Timothy J., 2003. "Powerful Trend Function Tests That are Robust to Strong Serial Correlation with an Application to the Prebisch-Singer Hypothesis," Staff General Research Papers 10353, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    Other versions:
  5. Paul Newbold & Stephan Pfaffenzeller & Anthony Rayner, 2005. "How well are long-run commodity price series characterized by trend components?," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 17(4), pages 479-494. [Downloadable!]
  6. Andre Varella Mollick & Joao Ricardo Faria & Pedro H. Albuquerque & Miguel A. Leon-Ledesma, 2005. "Can Globalisation Stop the Decline in Commodities' Terms of Trade? The Prebisch-Singer Hypothesis Revisited"," Studies in Economics 0510, Department of Economics, University of Kent. [Downloadable!]
  7. Bastourre, Diego, 2008. "Cambio fundamental o especulación financiera en los mercados de commodities? Un modelo con ajuste no lineal al equilibrio
    [Structural break or financial speculation in commodity markets? A multiva    ," MPRA Paper 9910, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  8. Paul Cashin & C. John McDermott, 2001. "The Long-Run Behavior of Commodity Prices: Small Trends and Big Variability," IMF Working Papers 01/68, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
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