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From Trends in Commodities and Manufactures to Country Terms of Trade

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  • Ziesemer, Thomas

    ()
    (UNU-MERIT, and Maastricht University)

Abstract

The debate about the Prebisch-Singer thesis has focussed on primary commodities with some extensions to manufactures. As we think that the link between the terms of trade and longrun development, growth and convergence is the ability of exports to enhance investment through importing capital goods we analyse trends in country terms-of-trade. We use two data sets. We find that for the poor countries the terms of trade of goods and services are falling at a rate that is less negative than for net-barter terms of trade and those found earlier for primary commodities.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by United Nations University - Maastricht Economic and Social Research Institute on Innovation and Technology (MERIT) in its series MERIT Working Papers with number 022.

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Date of creation: 2010
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Handle: RePEc:unm:unumer:2010022

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Related research

Keywords: Prebisch-Singer thesis; country terms-of-trade; long-run development;

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References

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  1. Ardeni, Pier Giorgio & Wright, Brian, 1992. "The Prebisch-Singer Hypothesis: A Reappraisal Independent of Stationarity Hypotheses," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 102(413), pages 803-12, July.
  2. Sarkar, Prabirjit & Singer, H. W., 1991. "Manufactured exports of developing countries and their terms of trade since 1965," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 333-340, April.
  3. Mutz,Christine & Ziesemer,Thomas, 2005. "Simultaneous Estimation of Income and Price Elasticities of Export Demand, Scale Economies and Total Factor Productivity Growth for Brazil," Research Memorandum 004, Maastricht University, Maastricht Economic Research Institute on Innovation and Technology (MERIT).
  4. Mario Crucini & Prasad Bidarkota, 1997. "Commodity Prices and the Terms of Trade," Working Papers 98-01, Ohio State University, Department of Economics.
  5. Bardhan, Pranab K & Lewis, Sydney, 1970. "Models of Growth with Imported Inputs," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 37(148), pages 373-85, November.
  6. Matthias G. Lutz, 1999. "Commodity terms of trade and individual countries' net barter terms of trade: Is there an empirical relationship?," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(6), pages 859-870.
  7. Sapsford, David & Balasubramanyam, V. N., 1994. "The long-run behavior of the relative price of primary commodities: Statistical evidence and policy implications," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 22(11), pages 1737-1745, November.
  8. Dennis Epple & Bennett T. Mccallum, 2006. "Simultaneous Equation Econometrics: The Missing Example," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 44(2), pages 374-384, April.
  9. Judson, Ruth A. & Owen, Ann L., 1999. "Estimating dynamic panel data models: a guide for macroeconomists," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 65(1), pages 9-15, October.
  10. Ziesemer, Thomas HW, 1994. "Economic Development and Endogenous Terms-of-Trade Determination: Review and Reinterpretation of the Prebisch-Singer Thesis," MPRA Paper 54864, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  11. David Roodman, 2007. "A Note on the Theme of Too Many Instruments," Working Papers 125, Center for Global Development.
  12. Bleaney, Michael & Greenaway, David, 2001. "The impact of terms of trade and real exchange rate volatility on investment and growth in sub-Saharan Africa," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(2), pages 491-500, August.
  13. Habiyaremye, Alexis & Ziesemer, Thomas, 2006. "Absorptive Capacity and Export Diversification in Sub-Saharan African Countries," MERIT Working Papers 030, United Nations University - Maastricht Economic and Social Research Institute on Innovation and Technology (MERIT).
  14. Hans Singer, 1999. "Beyond terms of trade-convergence and divergence," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(6), pages 911-916.
  15. Bleaney, Michael F & Greenaway, David, 1993. "Long-Run Trends in the Relative Price of Primary Commodities and in the Terms of Trade of Developing Countries," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 45(3), pages 349-63, July.
  16. World Bank, 2009. "World Development Indicators 2009," World Bank Publications, The World Bank, number 4367, October.
  17. Lutz, Matthias G, 1999. "A General Test of the Prebisch-Singer Hypothesis," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 3(1), pages 44-57, February.
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Cited by:
  1. Wacker, Konstantin M. & Großkurth, Philipp & Lakemann, Tabea, 2014. "Terms of Trade, Foreign Direct Investment, and Development: A Case of Intra-Asian “Kicking Away the Ladder”?," Working Papers on Regional Economic Integration 122, Asian Development Bank.
  2. Konstantin M. Wacker, 2011. "The Impact of Foreign Direct Investment on Developing Countries’ Terms of Trade," Working Paper Series UNU-WIDER Working Paper W, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
  3. Konstantin M. Wacker, 2011. "Do multinationals beat down developing countries' export prices? The impact of FDI on net barter terms of trade," Ibero America Institute for Econ. Research (IAI) Discussion Papers 211, Ibero-America Institute for Economic Research.

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