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African terms of trade and the commodity terms of trade: close cousins or distant relatives?

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Author Info
Paul Cashin
Catherine Pattillo

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Abstract

This paper examines whether there is a relationship between the commodity terms of trade (the price of primary commodities relative to the price of manufactures) and the net barter terms of trade of 42 Sub-Saharan African countries. For most countries, there is little evidence of a stable, long-run relationship between the two terms of trade series. Accordingly, the practice in the literature of proxying for movements in any given country's terms of trade by using an aggregate index of relative commodity prices is inappropriate, and is likely to engender misleading policy conclusions.

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Publisher Info
Article provided by Taylor and Francis Journals in its journal Applied Economics.

Volume (Year): 38 (2006)
Issue (Month): 8 (May)
Pages: 845-859
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Handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:38:y:2006:i:8:p:845-859

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  2. Allan W. Gregory & Bruce E. Hansen, 1992. "Residual-Based Tests for Cointegration in Models with Regime Shifts," Working Papers 862, Queen's University, Department of Economics.
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  3. Powell, Andrew, 1991. "Commodity and Developing Country Terms of Trade: What Does the Long Run Show?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 101(409), pages 1485-96, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  4. Andrews, Donald W K, 1991. "Heteroskedasticity and Autocorrelation Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(3), pages 817-58, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Paul Cashin & Catherine A. Pattillo, 2000. "Terms of Trade Shocks in Africa - Are They Short-Lived or Long-Lived?," IMF Working Papers 00/72, International Monetary Fund.
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  6. Phillips, Peter C B & Ouliaris, S, 1990. "Asymptotic Properties of Residual Based Tests for Cointegration," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 58(1), pages 165-93, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Deaton, Angus & Miller, Ron, 1996. "International Commodity Prices, Macroeconomic Performance and Politics in Sub-Saharan Africa," Journal of African Economies, Oxford University Press, vol. 5(3), pages 99-191, October.
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  8. Bleaney, Michael F & Greenaway, David, 1993. "Long-Run Trends in the Relative Price of Primary Commodities and in the Terms of Trade of Developing Countries," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 45(3), pages 349-63, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  12. Haug, Alfred A., 1996. "Tests for cointegration a Monte Carlo comparison," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 71(1-2), pages 89-115. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Anupam Basu & Evangelos A. Calamitsis & Dhaneshwar Ghura, 1999. "Adjustment and Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa," IMF Working Papers 99/51, International Monetary Fund.
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  16. Bidarkota, Prasad & Crucini, Mario J, 2000. "Commodity Prices and the Terms of Trade," Review of International Economics, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 8(4), pages 647-66, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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