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The commodity terms of trade and their strategic implications for development

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Author Info
José Antonio Ocampo (UN-DESA)
María Angela Parra (UN-DESA)

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Abstract

Although the empirical literature is not unanimous about the existence of a continuous long-term deterioration in the terms of trade for commodities (the original and most common formulation of the Prebisch- Singer hypothesis) and, hence, about the possibility of inferring their future behaviour on this basis, there is a consensus as to the sharp drop in the barter terms of trade, especially from the 1920s on. This paper presents a critical review of the theoretical and empirical literature on the subject and the implications for development strategies.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by EconWPA in its series International Trade with number 0403001.

Download reference. The following formats are available: HTML (with abstract), plain text (with abstract), BibTeX, RIS (EndNote, RefMan, ProCite), ReDIF
Length: 31 pages
Date of creation: 03 Mar 2004
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpit:0403001

Note: Type of Document - pdf; prepared on Win 98; to print on SEPHIS; pages: 31; figures: 4 tables, 3 figures
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Web page: http://129.3.20.41

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Related research
Keywords: Terms of trade; Economic development;

Find related papers by JEL classification:
F1 - International Economics - - Trade
F2 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Darity, William A, Jr, 1990. "The Fundamental Determinants of the Terms of Trade Reconsidered: Long-run and Long-period Equilibrium," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(4), pages 816-27, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Ardeni, Pier Giorgio & Wright, Brian, 1992. "The Prebisch-Singer Hypothesis: A Reappraisal Independent of Stationarity Hypotheses," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 102(413), pages 803-12, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Bloch, Harry & Sapsford, David, 2000. "Whither the Terms of Trade? An Elaboration of the Prebisch-Singer Hypothesis," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 24(4), pages 461-81, July.
  4. Eduardo Borensztein & Carmen Reinhart, 1994. "The Macroeconomic Determinants of Commodity Prices," IMF Working Papers 94/9, International Monetary Fund.
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  5. Bleaney, Michael F & Greenaway, David, 1993. "Long-Run Trends in the Relative Price of Primary Commodities and in the Terms of Trade of Developing Countries," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 45(3), pages 349-63, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. James M. Boughton, 1991. "Commodity and Manufactures Prices in the Long Run," IMF Working Papers 91/47, International Monetary Fund.
  7. Grilli, Enzo R & Yang, Maw Cheng, 1988. "Primary Commodity Prices, Manufactured Goods Prices, and the Terms of Trade of Developing Countries: What the Long Run Shows," World Bank Economic Review, Oxford University Press, vol. 2(1), pages 1-47, January.
  8. Evans, David, 1987. "The long-run determinants of North-South terms of trade and some recent empirical evidence," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 15(5), pages 657-671, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Harry Bloch & David Sapsford, 1996. "Trend in the international terms of trade between primary producers and manufacturers," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 8(1), pages 53-67.
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  10. Paul Cashin & C. John McDermott, 2001. "The Long-Run Behavior of Commodity Prices: Small Trends and Big Variability," IMF Working Papers 01/68, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Jomo Kwame Sundaram & Rudiger von Arnim, 2008. "Economic liberalization and constraints to development in sub-Saharan africa," Working Papers 67, United Nations, Department of Economics and Social Affairs. [Downloadable!]
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