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The Prebisch-Singer Hypothesis: Four Centuries of Evidence

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Author Info

  • David I. Harvey

    (University of Nottingham)

  • Neil M. Kellard

    (University of Essex)

  • Jakob B. Madsen

    (Monash University)

  • Mark E. Wohar

    (University of Nebraska at Omaha)

Abstract

We employ a unique data set and new time-series techniques to reexamine the existence of trends in relative primary commodity prices. The data set comprises 25 commodities and provides a new historical perspective, spanning the seventeenth to the twenty-first centuries. New tests for the trend function, robust to the order of integration of the series, are applied to the data. Results show that eleven price series present a significant and downward trend over all or some fraction of the sample period. In the very long run, a secular, deteriorating trend is a relevant phenomenon for a significant proportion of primary commodities. © 2010 The President and Fellows of Harvard College and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.

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File URL: http://www.mitpressjournals.org/doi/pdf/10.1162/rest.2010.12184
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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by MIT Press in its journal The Review of Economics and Statistics.

Volume (Year): 92 (2010)
Issue (Month): 2 (May)
Pages: 367-377

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Handle: RePEc:tpr:restat:v:92:y:2010:i:2:p:367-377

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Web page: http://mitpress.mit.edu/journals/

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Web: http://mitpress.mit.edu/journal-home.tcl?issn=00346535

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