Powerful Trend Function Tests That Are Robust to Strong Serial Correlation with an Application to the Prebisch-Singer Hypothesis
AbstractIn this paper we propose tests for hypotheses regarding the parameters of the deterministic trend function of a univariate time series. The tests do not require knowledge of the form of serial correlation in the data and they are robust to strong serial correlation. The data can contain a unit root and the tests still have the correct size asymptotically. The tests we analyze are standard heteroskedasticity autocorrelation (HAC) robust tests based on nonparametric kernel variance estimators. We analyze these tests using the ï¾…xed-b asymptotic framework recently proposed by Kiefer and Vogelsang (2002). This analysis allows us to analyze the power properties of the tests with regards to bandwidth and kernel choices. Our analysis shows that among popular kernels, there are speciï¾…c kernel and bandwidth choices that deliver tests with maximal power within a speciï¾…c class of tests. Based on the theoretical results, we propose a data dependent bandwidth rule that maximizes integrated power. Our recommended test is shown to have power that dominates a related test proposed by Vogelsang (1998). We apply the recommended test to the logarithm of a net barter terms of trade series and we ï¾…nd that this series has a statistically signiï¾…cant negative slope. This ï¾…nding is consistent with the well known Prebisch-Singer hypothesis.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Iowa State University, Department of Economics in its series Staff General Research Papers with number 10353.
Date of creation: 07 Apr 2003
Date of revision:
Publication status: Published in Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, October 2005, vol. 23 no. 4, pp. 381-394
Contact details of provider:
Postal: Iowa State University, Dept. of Economics, 260 Heady Hall, Ames, IA 50011-1070
Phone: +1 515.294.6741
Fax: +1 515.294.0221
Web page: http://www.econ.iastate.edu
More information through EDIRC
Other versions of this item:
- Bunzel, Helle & Vogelsang, Timothy J., 2005. "Powerful Trend Function Tests That Are Robust to Strong Serial Correlation, With an Application to the Prebisch-Singer Hypothesis," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 23, pages 381-394, October.
- Helle Bunzel & Timothy Vogelsang, 2003. "Powerful Trend Function Tests That are Robust to Strong Serial Correlation with an Application to the Prebisch Singer Hypothesis," Econometrics, EconWPA 0304002, EconWPA.
- C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2004-06-13 (All new papers)
- NEP-ECM-2004-06-13 (Econometrics)
- NEP-ETS-2004-06-13 (Econometric Time Series)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Sapsford, D, 1985. "The Statistical Debate on the Net Barter Terms of Trade between Primary Commodities and Manufactures: A Comment and Some Additional Evidence," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, Royal Economic Society, vol. 95(379), pages 781-88, September.
- Kiefer, Nicholas M. & Vogelsang, Timothy J., 2005.
"A New Asymptotic Theory for Heteroskedasticity-Autocorrelation Robust Tests,"
Working Papers, Cornell University, Center for Analytic Economics
05-08, Cornell University, Center for Analytic Economics.
- Kiefer, Nicholas M. & Vogelsang, Timothy J., 2005. "A New Asymptotic Theory For Heteroskedasticity-Autocorrelation Robust Tests," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge University Press, vol. 21(06), pages 1130-1164, December.
- Spraos, John, 1980. "The Statistical Debate on the Net Barter Terms of Trade between Primary Commodities and Manufactures," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, Royal Economic Society, vol. 90(357), pages 107-28, March.
- Peter C.B. Phillips, 1985.
"Time Series Regression with a Unit Root,"
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University
740R, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University, revised Feb 1986.
- Cuddington, John T & Urzua, Carlos M, 1989. "Trends and Cycles in the Net Barter Terms of Trade: A New Approach," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, Royal Economic Society, vol. 99(396), pages 426-42, June.
- Ardeni, Pier Giorgio & Wright, Brian, 1992. "The Prebisch-Singer Hypothesis: A Reappraisal Independent of Stationarity Hypotheses," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, Royal Economic Society, vol. 102(413), pages 803-12, July.
- Timothy J. Vogelsang, 1998. "Trend Function Hypothesis Testing in the Presence of Serial Correlation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, Econometric Society, vol. 66(1), pages 123-148, January.
- Breitung, Jorg, 2002. "Nonparametric tests for unit roots and cointegration," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 108(2), pages 343-363, June.
- Powell, Andrew, 1991.
"Commodity and Developing Country Terms of Trade: What Does the Long Run Show?,"
Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society,
Royal Economic Society, vol. 101(409), pages 1485-96, November.
- Powell, A., 1989. "Commodity And Developing Country Terms Of Trade, What Does The Long Run Show?," Economics Series Working Papers 9980, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
- Lutz, Matthias G, 1999. "A General Test of the Prebisch-Singer Hypothesis," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 3(1), pages 44-57, February.
- Peter C.B. Phillips & Victor Solo, 1989. "Asymptotics for Linear Processes," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University 932, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
This item has more than 25 citations. To prevent cluttering this page, these citations are listed on a separate page. reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.Access and download statisticsgeneral information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Stephanie Bridges) The email address of this maintainer does not seem to be valid anymore. Please ask Stephanie Bridges to update the entry or send us the correct address.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.