This file is part of IDEAS, which uses RePEc data


[ Papers | Articles | Software | Books | Chapters | Authors | Institutions | JEL Classification | NEP reports | Search | New papers by email | Author registration | Rankings | Volunteers | FAQ | Blog | Help! ]

Structural Breaks And Long-Run Trends In Commodity Prices

Author info | Abstract | Publisher info | Download info | Related research | Statistics
Author Info
JAVIER LEÓN (Inter-American Development Bank, Washington)
RAIMUNDO SOTO (ILADES-Georgetown University, Santiago, Chile)

Additional information is available for the following registered author(s):

Abstract

The purpose of this paper is twofold: first, it tests the Prebisch-Singer hypothesis of a secular deteriorating trend, and, second, presents a time-series analysis of the dynamics of commodity prices. Using annual data for the 1900-92 period and employing recently developed econometric techniques, we show that 17 of the 24 commodity prices studied present negative long-run trends, three are trendless and four have positive trends. Contrary to previous findings, this evidence suggests that although the Prebisch-Singer hypothesis is not a universal phenomenon, it is the case of most commodities. Moreover, the estimated long-run persistence of commodity price shocks challenges the conventional policy recommendations to overcome the negative effects of price instability on economic performance. In several cases, the estimated persistence is much lower than previous empirical results, suggesting that commodity stabilization funds can be successful in smoothing export revenues. © 1997 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Download Info
To our knowledge, this item is not available for download. To find whether it is available, there are three options:
1. Check below under "Related research" whether another version of this item is available online.
2. Check on the provider's web page whether it is in fact available.
3. Perform a search for a similarly titled item that would be available.

Publisher Info
Article provided by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. in its journal Journal of International Development.

Volume (Year): 9 (1997)
Issue (Month): 3 ()
Pages: 347-366
Download reference. The following formats are available: HTML (with abstract), plain text (with abstract), BibTeX, RIS (EndNote, RefMan, ProCite), ReDIF
Handle: RePEc:wly:jintdv:v:9:y:1997:i:3:p:347-366

Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://www3.interscience.wiley.com/journal/5102/home

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its listing, contact: (Robert Roslyn) or (Christopher F. Baum).

Related research
Keywords:

Other versions of this item:

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Vial, Joaquin, 1992. "Copper consumption in the USA: Main determinants and structural changes," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 107-121, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Rudebusch, Glenn D, 1993. "The Uncertain Unit Root in Real GNP," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(1), pages 264-72, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  3. Chow, K. Victor & Denning, Karen C., 1993. "A simple multiple variance ratio test," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 58(3), pages 385-401, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Perron, Pierre, 1989. "The Great Crash, the Oil Price Shock, and the Unit Root Hypothesis," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(6), pages 1361-1401, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  5. Reinhart, Carmen & Wickham, Peter, 1994. "Commodity Prices: Cyclical Weakness or Secular Decline?," MPRA Paper 8173, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  6. Danny Quah, 1991. "The Relative Importance of Permanent and Transitory Components: Identi- fication and Some Theoretical Bounds," NBER Technical Working Papers 0106, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  7. Cuddington, John T., 1992. "Long-run trends in 26 primary commodity prices : A disaggregated look at the Prebisch-Singer hypothesis," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(2), pages 207-227, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Behrman, Jere R., 1987. "Commodity price instability and economic goal attainment in developing countries," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 15(5), pages 559-573, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Cochrane, John H, 1988. "How Big Is the Random Walk in GNP?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 96(5), pages 893-920, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Barrett, Christopher B., 2002. "Food Aid And Commercial International Food Trade," Working Papers 14742, Cornell University, Department of Applied Economics and Management. [Downloadable!]
  2. Romano, Donato, 2006. "Agriculture in the Age of Globalization," 2006 Annual Meeting, August 12-18, 2006, Queensland, Australia 25253, International Association of Agricultural Economists. [Downloadable!]
  3. Paul Newbold & Stephan Pfaffenzeller & Anthony Rayner, 2005. "How well are long-run commodity price series characterized by trend components?," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 17(4), pages 479-494. [Downloadable!]
  4. Surajit Deb, 2003. "Terms of Trade and Supply Response of Indian Agriculture: Analysis in Cointegration Framework," Working papers 115, Centre for Development Economics, Delhi School of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  5. Giulio Federico & Benedict F. W. Bingham & James Daniel, 2001. "Domestic Petroleum Price Smoothing in Developing and Transition Countries," IMF Working Papers 01/75, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  6. Angelov, Nikolay, 2006. "Structural breaks in Iron-Ore prices: The impact of the 1973 oil crisis," Working Paper Series 2006:11, Uppsala University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  7. Moledina, Amyaz & Roe, Terry L. & Shane, Mathew, 2004. "Measuring Commodity Price Volatility And The Welfare Consequences Of Eliminating Volatility," 2004 Annual meeting, August 1-4, Denver, CO 19963, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association). [Downloadable!]
  8. Balagtas, Joseph V. & Holt, Matthew T., 2006. "Unit Roots, TV-STARs, and the Commodity Terms of Trade: A Further Assessment of the Prebisch-Singer Hypothesis," 2006 Annual meeting, July 23-26, Long Beach, CA 21405, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association). [Downloadable!]
  9. David I. Harvey & Stephen J. Leybourne & A. M. Robert Taylor, 2008. "Testing for unit roots and the impact of quadratic trends, with an application to relative primary commodity prices," Discussion Papers 08/04, University of Nottingham, Granger Centre for Time Series Econometrics. [Downloadable!]
  10. Cuddington, John T. & Ludema, Rodney & Jayasuriya, Shamila A, 2002. "Prebisch-Singer Redux," Working Papers 15857, United States International Trade Commission, Office of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  11. Andre Varella Mollick & Joao Ricardo Faria & Pedro H. Albuquerque & Miguel A. Leon-Ledesma, 2005. "Can Globalisation Stop the Decline in Commodities' Terms of Trade? The Prebisch-Singer Hypothesis Revisited"," Studies in Economics 0510, Department of Economics, University of Kent. [Downloadable!]
  12. Dehn, Jan, 2000. "The effects on growth of commodity price uncertainty and shocks," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2455, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
  13. Paul Cashin & C. John McDermott, 2001. "The Long-Run Behavior of Commodity Prices: Small Trends and Big Variability," IMF Working Papers 01/68, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
Statistics
Access and download statistics

Did you know? Data contributors to RePEc receive monthly emails with details about downloads and abstract views of their works.

This page was last updated on 2010-3-19.


This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Department of Economics, College of Liberal Arts and Sciences, University of Connecticut using RePEc data on a server sponsored by the Society for Economic Dynamics.